irrational fear?; spouse wants house…

[temeculaguy]

peter, koolaid comes in two flavors, bear and bull, don’t drink either. Just plattitudes and cliche’s, still no examples or data. I’ve followed my micro market as much as anyone on the boards or probably the town and I say it is within striking distance right now with 09 being ideal, nobody has made a cogent argument against that, other than generic talking points.

here’s another example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44656-LA-PAZ-92592/home/6189254

$82 a square for rental property, 89k for a rental that brings over 1k a month, I’ll concede these are the scuzziest units around but they rent, seen them between 1100 and 1300.

Not that you can get 0 down on rental property but purely for mathematical calculations, 90k at 6.5, 30yr fixed is $586 mo. hoa is $275 taxes are about 1500 yr, as they were 3k based on a much higher purchase price, this place peaked at 270k in early 2006 and was 82k in 1992, out the door today, 1k a month total carry with zero down calculated and rents for that plus a little extra. So if I am finding rent nuetral or rent positive properties i have a hard time accepting the other flavor of koolaid and phrases like “prices are still going down, it’s a depreciating asset.” You can’t find a rent positve property using zero down calculations in carmel valley then those phrases apply to carmel valley, but it doesn’t mean that they apply everywhere.

[carlsbadworker]

TG, I agree with all your points. However, I am wondering if one really can get 2009 prices now. There are still a lot of buyers out looking and the government intervention is not going to help the near-term supply/demand picture. Luckily, I see more rational buyers now, so if everyone demands 2009 price, it will just bring the bottom closer.
Anyway, I too think it is within strike zone right now. So I will be trying to write a few offers in the next few months, yet it is often very frustrating.
I just kept on rambling, but the point that I want to make is that I always enjoy reading your posts, so thank you very much for that.

[carlsbadworker]

TG, I agree with all your points. However, I am wondering if one really can get 2009 prices now. There are still a lot of buyers out looking and the government intervention is not going to help the near-term supply/demand picture. Luckily, I see more rational buyers now, so if everyone demands 2009 price, it will just bring the bottom closer.
Anyway, I too think it is within strike zone right now. So I will be trying to write a few offers in the next few months, yet it is often very frustrating.
I just kept on rambling, but the point that I want to make is that I always enjoy reading your posts, so thank you very much for that.

[carlsbadworker]

TG, I agree with all your points. However, I am wondering if one really can get 2009 prices now. There are still a lot of buyers out looking and the government intervention is not going to help the near-term supply/demand picture. Luckily, I see more rational buyers now, so if everyone demands 2009 price, it will just bring the bottom closer.
Anyway, I too think it is within strike zone right now. So I will be trying to write a few offers in the next few months, yet it is often very frustrating.
I just kept on rambling, but the point that I want to make is that I always enjoy reading your posts, so thank you very much for that.

[carlsbadworker]

TG, I agree with all your points. However, I am wondering if one really can get 2009 prices now. There are still a lot of buyers out looking and the government intervention is not going to help the near-term supply/demand picture. Luckily, I see more rational buyers now, so if everyone demands 2009 price, it will just bring the bottom closer.
Anyway, I too think it is within strike zone right now. So I will be trying to write a few offers in the next few months, yet it is often very frustrating.
I just kept on rambling, but the point that I want to make is that I always enjoy reading your posts, so thank you very much for that.

[carlsbadworker]

TG, I agree with all your points. However, I am wondering if one really can get 2009 prices now. There are still a lot of buyers out looking and the government intervention is not going to help the near-term supply/demand picture. Luckily, I see more rational buyers now, so if everyone demands 2009 price, it will just bring the bottom closer.
Anyway, I too think it is within strike zone right now. So I will be trying to write a few offers in the next few months, yet it is often very frustrating.
I just kept on rambling, but the point that I want to make is that I always enjoy reading your posts, so thank you very much for that.

[peterb]

I am a careful student of economic history as well as CA RE history. (Never cared much for Kool-aid, but I know what you mean.) I’ve studied the last few RE cycles in CA, and unemployment over 6% has by far the greatest correlation to a downward cycle. We’re at 7.7% and heading for more. This is a terrible sign for CA RE! (Not to mention Foreclosures at off-the-chart-levels and growing.)
On the national economic front, economic history tells us that a credit bubble burst of this magnitude will retrace all bubble prices back to pre-bubble prices. And then drag along at this level for some time before any uptick is seen.

Put these two histories together, local RE and national economics, and you’ve got some more down to go. Even somewhere as stricken as Temecula. $50 sq/ft. is not out of the question at all.

[peterb]

I am a careful student of economic history as well as CA RE history. (Never cared much for Kool-aid, but I know what you mean.) I’ve studied the last few RE cycles in CA, and unemployment over 6% has by far the greatest correlation to a downward cycle. We’re at 7.7% and heading for more. This is a terrible sign for CA RE! (Not to mention Foreclosures at off-the-chart-levels and growing.)
On the national economic front, economic history tells us that a credit bubble burst of this magnitude will retrace all bubble prices back to pre-bubble prices. And then drag along at this level for some time before any uptick is seen.

Put these two histories together, local RE and national economics, and you’ve got some more down to go. Even somewhere as stricken as Temecula. $50 sq/ft. is not out of the question at all.

[peterb]

I am a careful student of economic history as well as CA RE history. (Never cared much for Kool-aid, but I know what you mean.) I’ve studied the last few RE cycles in CA, and unemployment over 6% has by far the greatest correlation to a downward cycle. We’re at 7.7% and heading for more. This is a terrible sign for CA RE! (Not to mention Foreclosures at off-the-chart-levels and growing.)
On the national economic front, economic history tells us that a credit bubble burst of this magnitude will retrace all bubble prices back to pre-bubble prices. And then drag along at this level for some time before any uptick is seen.

Put these two histories together, local RE and national economics, and you’ve got some more down to go. Even somewhere as stricken as Temecula. $50 sq/ft. is not out of the question at all.

[peterb]

I am a careful student of economic history as well as CA RE history. (Never cared much for Kool-aid, but I know what you mean.) I’ve studied the last few RE cycles in CA, and unemployment over 6% has by far the greatest correlation to a downward cycle. We’re at 7.7% and heading for more. This is a terrible sign for CA RE! (Not to mention Foreclosures at off-the-chart-levels and growing.)
On the national economic front, economic history tells us that a credit bubble burst of this magnitude will retrace all bubble prices back to pre-bubble prices. And then drag along at this level for some time before any uptick is seen.

Put these two histories together, local RE and national economics, and you’ve got some more down to go. Even somewhere as stricken as Temecula. $50 sq/ft. is not out of the question at all.

[peterb]

I am a careful student of economic history as well as CA RE history. (Never cared much for Kool-aid, but I know what you mean.) I’ve studied the last few RE cycles in CA, and unemployment over 6% has by far the greatest correlation to a downward cycle. We’re at 7.7% and heading for more. This is a terrible sign for CA RE! (Not to mention Foreclosures at off-the-chart-levels and growing.)
On the national economic front, economic history tells us that a credit bubble burst of this magnitude will retrace all bubble prices back to pre-bubble prices. And then drag along at this level for some time before any uptick is seen.

Put these two histories together, local RE and national economics, and you’ve got some more down to go. Even somewhere as stricken as Temecula. $50 sq/ft. is not out of the question at all.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=carlsbadworker]That said, I just put an offer on a property over the weekend, because apparently everyone is watching World Series and nobody is out looking.[/quote]

Crap, the house was bought by another buyer at the listing price (a little bit over $90/sqft). That just confirms my doubt that we will ever be able to buy 2009 price in 2008.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=carlsbadworker]That said, I just put an offer on a property over the weekend, because apparently everyone is watching World Series and nobody is out looking.[/quote]

Crap, the house was bought by another buyer at the listing price (a little bit over $90/sqft). That just confirms my doubt that we will ever be able to buy 2009 price in 2008.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=carlsbadworker]That said, I just put an offer on a property over the weekend, because apparently everyone is watching World Series and nobody is out looking.[/quote]

Crap, the house was bought by another buyer at the listing price (a little bit over $90/sqft). That just confirms my doubt that we will ever be able to buy 2009 price in 2008.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=carlsbadworker]That said, I just put an offer on a property over the weekend, because apparently everyone is watching World Series and nobody is out looking.[/quote]

Crap, the house was bought by another buyer at the listing price (a little bit over $90/sqft). That just confirms my doubt that we will ever be able to buy 2009 price in 2008.

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