interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies

[phaster]

[quote=gzz]Phaster the PBGC is not economically significant. It pays reduced pensions to old industrials whose defined benefit pension plans went bust. It will likely be bailed out if it becomes insolvent, but it won’t be that much money.

While not a good thing if a bunch of 85 year old widows of steelworkers see their pension cut another 15%, it just won’t have any larger effect.

Arguably it wouldn’t even be unfair. A lot of these plans agreed to benefits when inflation was high, and it was expected by everyone that inflation would reduce the obligations more than actually happened. So some of these old pensions would, as a worst case, just be reduced to the expected real value.[/quote]

this past another big corporate “old industrial” pension domino falls

GE’s pension freeze puts a spotlight on America’s retirement planning problem
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pensions-ge-401-k-retirement-decline-161154581.html

which puts pressure on the PBGC,…serendipity (not in a good way)

FWIW actually parts of GE are pretty far from being “old industrial”

http://www.ge.com/additive/

[FlyerInHi]

I have been dong some reading and we also have the highest real estate rents of the advanced economies. It’s more profitable to invest in US real estate.
I have a new tenant from Germany who’s here on a project. He said that the rents and costs of living here are ridiculous. I was thinking: “Maybe in the future I can take my US earning and hang out in Germany for a while”. It makes sense to have US income and live overseas — location arbitrage.

[gzz]

Wow, 2.86 when i posted this, and 1.28 right now.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=gzz]Wow, 2.86 when i posted this, and 1.28 right now.[/quote]
Then:
USA 2.86
Canada 2.06
Germany 0.25
UK 1.26
France 0.73
Spain 1.40
Holland 0.41
Switzerland -0.24
Japan 0.02
Australia 2.44
New Zealand 2.45
Hong Kong 2.03
South Korea 2.00

Now:
USA 1.28
Canada: 1.16
Germany: -0.50
UK: 0.49
France: -0.24
Spain: 0.33
Holland: -0.39
Switzlerland: -0.78
Japan: -0.10
Australia: 0.88
New Zealand: 1.22
Hong Kong: 1.22
South Korea: 1.42

USA is still pretty high. Negative rate, here we come!

[FlyerInHi]

Record deficit and debt. No inflation.
The laws of economics have been suspended I suppose. Where are the fiscal hawks?

[Coronita]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=gzz]Wow, 2.86 when i posted this, and 1.28 right now.[/quote]
Then:
USA 2.86
Canada 2.06
Germany 0.25
UK 1.26
France 0.73
Spain 1.40
Holland 0.41
Switzerland -0.24
Japan 0.02
Australia 2.44
New Zealand 2.45
Hong Kong 2.03
South Korea 2.00

Now:
USA 1.28
Canada: 1.16
Germany: -0.50
UK: 0.49
France: -0.24
Spain: 0.33
Holland: -0.39
Switzlerland: -0.78
Japan: -0.10
Australia: 0.88
New Zealand: 1.22
Hong Kong: 1.22
South Korea: 1.42

USA is still pretty high. Negative rate, here we come![/quote]

I said this before. race to the bottom.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I have been dong some reading and we also have the highest real estate rents of the advanced economies. It’s more profitable to invest in US real estate.
I have a new tenant from Germany who’s here on a project. He said that the rents and costs of living here are ridiculous. I was thinking: “Maybe in the future I can take my US earning and hang out in Germany for a while”. It makes sense to have US income and live overseas — location arbitrage.[/quote]

Instead of posting generalizations, you should bring data.

[img_assist|nid=26966|title=2018 Housing Cost as share of Income by Country|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=257]

[FlyerInHi]

I didn’t look at data. But talking to various people, I find that US rents are some of the highest, in dollar terms. Our salaries are also higher; and purchase prices are lower— not in San Francisco but in places such as Phoenix.

Another advantage the USA has is that we don’t need licenses to rent out our homes. Just post an ad and find a tenant.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I didn’t look at data.[/quote]

I know that. Or you would have known that what you posted isn’t backed by fact.

[FlyerInHi]

facts that I collected. The data you posted are rents relative to income.
An investor would look at income only. Plus the strong dollar makes US revenue pretty good right now.

[gzz]

USA Ten Year falls below 1%!

[spdrun]

Stocks still down a few %. Hope the fall continues till it looks like 2008 … having half their portfolios wiped out will expunge a lot of people from the property markets. People who are worried about money don’t feel rich, and people who don’t feel rich hunker down and don’t buy property.

This isn’t due to COVID… this is a long-overdue deflation of Trumpy’s “big, ugly, fat bubble.” Remember when he said those words. Remember him bitching about the Fed keeping rates low to help Obama? Hope he’s eating them now!

Ride the Slide!

[gzz]

Spdrun, you’ve been missing out on our swole portfolio gainz for like 8 years now, waiting for that correction that never comes.

Come on, join the party, you have nothing to lose but your chains!

[spdrun]

Oh, it’ll come … it’s always “different this time” until it’s not. COVID-19 is just an excuse or a catalyst for a long-overdue shitshow. Remember the 90s, with the “end of history?” Then came the 2000 dot.BOMB crash, and life was fun again.

I don’t want to HAVE to invest or take risks. I hope that we get national healthcare, etc, in the next 5-10 years so I can lead the rest of my life in comfortable mediocrity, working 30 hours a week, without having to strive, scrimp, or stress, just being comfortable, safe, and protected. That’s my goal: safe, comfy mediocrity, and a crisis that flips the 2020 election blue is the best hope of achieving that.

The goal isn’t even investment anymore, just getting a country where I can live in comfort without trying too hard or competing.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]Oh, it’ll come … it’s always “different this time” until it’s not. COVID-19 is just an excuse or a catalyst for a long-overdue shitshow. Remember the 90s, with the “end of history?” Then came the 2000 dot.BOMB crash, and life was fun again.

I don’t want to HAVE to invest or take risks. I hope that we get national healthcare, etc, in the next 5-10 years so I can lead the rest of my life in comfortable mediocrity, working 30 hours a week, without having to strive, scrimp, or stress, just being comfortable, safe, and protected. That’s my goal: safe, comfy mediocrity, and a crisis that flips the 2020 election blue is the best hope of achieving that.

The goal isn’t even investment anymore, just getting a country where I can live in comfort without trying too hard or competing.[/quote]

That ain’t never gonna happen in USA or anywhere in the world except for small places like Switzerland or Norway (the irony is that they have the biggest sovereign wealth fund invested in competitive countries like the USA).

The USA is not safe in bad neighborhoods. Too many guns and drugs.

You have to be competitive in this world. It’s kind of unfortunate that we self-induce the stress…. but such is life.

[Author]

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