I went 90% cash today.

[spdrun]

The-Shoveler: margin debt is very high. As far as housing bubbles, they’re just more local in nature as opposed to last time.

flu: wasn’t the .com crash in 2001 fast rather than slow? This is more of a slow deflation.

[The-Shoveler]

How many people you know like you sitting in cash?

Almost everyone I know is.

[no_such_reality]

No, the NASDAQ peaked before the Y2K non-event in November at about 4300. Then over the next six-ish months it corrected about 10%. Then it fell off the cliff starting in May 2000 to Feb ’01 all the way down to 1619 before recovering to about 2100 to close Feb ’01. From there it yo-yo’d down over the next year+ to about 1300. Then rotted there about a year.

[spdrun]

How many people you know like you sitting in cash?

And if they distrust the market already, why would a down leg make them trust it more?

[no_such_reality]

[quote=The-Shoveler]How many people you know like you sitting in cash?

Almost everyone I know is.[/quote]

Cash or cash not, I think everybody is starting to hedge stuff going whackadoodle between next Tuesday and Jan 20, 2017.

IMO, if the election is decisive one way or another, the market will quickly recover. A Florida hanging chad scenario and the market will freak.

[The-Shoveler]

Anyway I think people would rather pay the bank to keep their money than be invested right now.

I think that is part of the issue. there is a lot of cash sitting around.

[The-Shoveler]

Yep maybe a political crisis will create s small crash (before the central bank steps in anyway).

There is a crap load of cash and it’s does not seem to be in anyone interest who matters (big money) to give a buying opportunity to any small investors.

anyway IMO.

[Coronita]

Dow below 18000, nasdaq off 70…. Deja vu!

[Coronita]

[quote=no_such_reality]No, the NASDAQ peaked before the Y2K non-event in November at about 4300. Then over the next six-ish months it corrected about 10%. Then it fell off the cliff starting in May 2000 to Feb ’01 all the way down to 1619 before recovering to about 2100 to close Feb ’01. From there it yo-yo’d down over the next year+ to about 1300. Then rotted there about a year.[/quote]

Yup… all I remember about the dot.com crash was trying to sell my vested ISO stock options, just in case it came crashing down…. And buying put options to hedge against unvested shares, when it miraculously reached one day$415/share somewhere in between the first 8 months of trading, to hedge against the options that were not going to vest for another 2-3 years. Back then, companies didn’t have policies that restricted folks from doing this. I think about 1 year after 9/11, it was trading around $11/share….

The telling signing was the day that Amazon’s Bezo came on CNBC trying to explain to “shareholders” why that day the stock tanked….And not long after that 9/11 happened, and the market tanked even more and went into a selloff lower and lower. And then when we got involved in the Iraq war, things remained pretty absymal, except for defense companies that did really well… Around 2002-2003 I believe was also when there were a huge tech/recession, in which Bay Area actually saw a outflow of employees to SoCal and other parts of the U.S.

[The-Shoveler]

I think there is a small chance if there is some disruptions etc… then we could get a real political crisis.

Really I think if Trump wins outright it may not be that big a deal, I think he just says whatever gets him in then he will act a lot more rational if he is elected (Jimmy Carter did this but no one remembers).

Say what you have to to get elected then do something else.

So far Zero presidents have kept their campaign promises.

[Coronita]

Selfishly, I wouldn’t mind seeing a 5-7% correction in the markets at this point….or more, purely thinking in terms of $$$$. It’s one of those days when when you see the markets red by -1%, and you look at your account, and it’s showing no hit.

We just need 5 or 6 more days like this. 🙂

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO the World central banks are acting in collusion to create slow steady growth at all costs.
[/quote]

Isn’t their job to create growth? There is no need for collusion or conspiracies.

[FlyerInHi]

AN, would Trump being a puppet of Russia worry you?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/11/01/trumps-putin-problem-returns-in-a-big-way/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-b%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.977f1b8efbc2

[spdrun]

It’s their job to create stability. Stability and security is more important than growth for the average (non-exceptional) citizen.

[FlyerInHi]

Growth is stability. Economic stagnation creates political and economic risks.

[Author]

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