I went 90% cash today.

[masayako]

[quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

True, probably. I still wouldn’t sell, would probably buy more shares when it dropped. Admit failure is the first step to success.

[an]

[quote=masayako][quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

True, probably. I still wouldn’t sell, would probably buy more shares when it dropped. Admit failure is the first step to success.[/quote]
But if you stayed invested, then where would you get the cash to buy more?

[Coronita]

[quote=masayako][quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

True, probably. I still wouldn’t sell, would probably buy more shares when it dropped. Admit failure is the first step to success.[/quote]

I already admitted I was wrong on this call on a different thread. I’m not sure what you mean by “success” and “failure”. It’s a one time event, I would hate to think my entire net worth depends on calling one thing correct. Afterall, if that were the case, one could make the argument that those that missed out on the real estate boom post crash “failed” or succeeded too. Well anyway, whatever. I’m not complaining about a Trump rally. Which probably means I’m not all in cash anymore..But I’ve learned never to call the markets publicly again, because well, the last time I did, it was pretty much wrong….Which is why I stopped commenting about the stock market publicly.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=masayako][quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

True, probably. I still wouldn’t sell, would probably buy more shares when it dropped. Admit failure is the first step to success.[/quote]
But if you stayed invested, then where would you get the cash to buy more?[/quote]

buy on margin, lol..

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

I don’t see why he would be. He’s saying that guessing about short term market moves is not a good investing approach. I don’t see why that opinion should change on the basis of one correct guess.

[an]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

I don’t see why he would be. He’s saying that guessing about short term market moves is not a good investing approach. I don’t see why that opinion should change on the basis of one correct guess.[/quote]Because although one might not want to time the market, one should also constantly assess risk/reward. This past election is one of those event where we can do just that. I went 95%+ in cash because there was a big uncertainty. It can go horrible wrong like the Brexit and the market can be down a lot. It’s always best to sit in cash and wait. Especially if the immediate upside isn’t as great. I did buy back into the market the day after the election, seeing that the 1000 point lost in early trading goes positive at opening bell.

This is very similar to people who sell their house in 2005-2008.

[spdrun]

Aren’t market gains also biased heavily towards Nov-Dec vs Jan-Feb (with another historically good month in April)?

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=AN]Because although one might not want to time the market, one should also constantly assess risk/reward. This past election is one of those event where we can do just that. I went 95%+ in cash because there was a big uncertainty. It can go horrible wrong like the Brexit and the market can be down a lot. It’s always best to sit in cash and wait. Especially if the immediate upside isn’t as great. I did buy back into the market the day after the election, seeing that the 1000 point lost in early trading goes positive at opening bell.

This is very similar to people who sell their house in 2005-2008.[/quote]

You’re defending market timing. That’s beside the point… my point was if you don’t believe in market timing, you’re not going to change your mind just because someone made a good guess one time.

As far as housing in 2005, I don’t see that as a good analogy. The reason to sell housing then was that it was really, really overpriced. Valuations were such that long-term risk/reward was very poor. It wasn’t a market timing call, like what’s being discussed here.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

I don’t see why he would be. He’s saying that guessing about short term market moves is not a good investing approach. I don’t see why that opinion should change on the basis of one correct guess.[/quote]

Real investors understand the value of bragging at the water cooler.

[plm]

I don’t think it’s a good idea to time the market having made the mistake of keeping cash instead of investing it because I thought the market was due for a correction for years. I’ve put money in over the last six months and will continue to do so even though my returns have not been very good lately. Trump wasn’t good for my tech stocks. Buying bank stocks now, hopefully that’s the right move. Or is there a better sector to invest in?

[an]

There’s a difference between trying to time the market by staying in cash for a long extended period time to buy and sell at the time you think its optimal and to not participate in the market for a few days while you wait for an event to occur that can potentially crater the market. Once the event happened, then you’d buy back in at whatever price it is. That’s not timing the market. That’s just remove risk from your portfolio for a short period of time.

[cvmom]

[quote=AN]There’s a difference between trying to time the market by staying in cash for a long extended period time to buy and sell at the time you think its optimal and to not participate in the market for a few days while you wait for an event to occur that can potentially crater the market. Once the event happened, then you’d buy back in at whatever price it is. That’s not timing the market. That’s just remove risk from your portfolio for a short period of time.[/quote]

I disagree. Missing even just a few very good days in the market (which no one can accurately predict when they will be) can cause your returns to be significantly lower than buy-and-hold. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-missing-out-on-25-days-in-the-stock-market-over-45-years-costs-you-dearly-2016-01-25

[moneymaker]

I believe next year will be more volatility in the stock market and hence opportunity. With Trump I really don’t see how it could happen any other way. One world wide shock after another.

[spdrun]

Thing is, if the idiot starts a nuclear war, there wouldn’t be much opportunity for anyone. Unless you’re investing in potassium iodide pills.

[Coronita]

In the past, I’ve tried to straddle the issue by splitting one part of my investments into passive buy and hold index funds, and a more “active” portion of picking individuals funds/stocks. The index funds were meant to be “set it and forget it” just in case.

I don’t really know what caused me to sell off even that. Because I’ve never touched that portion for years until November of this year.

Admittedly, trump really really spooked me out. And the mistake I made was emotion based. So…lesson learn from me was, don’t go nut-so even on the portion of the portfolio that you aren’t suppose to touch….Oh well… Chalk this up as a lesson learned.

[Author]

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