I really really really want to buy, soon

[RatherOpinionated]

If 125 can get into a primary residence, and possibly even subsidize his mortgage with a roommate or two, why would you all try and Tell him to time the market? Prices are already well off their highs, and there truly is no way to know when the bottom has hit until it has already passed. If 125 likes a place enough to live in it even if it drops a bit more, who cares?

[Ren]

If 125 can get into a primary residence, and possibly even subsidize his mortgage with a roommate or two, why would you all try and Tell him to time the market?

How about to save well over a hundred grand?

Prices are already well off their highs

Not in 4S they’re not.

…and there truly is no way to know when the bottom has hit until it has already passed.

Not entirely true. We know approximately where prices should be. The market turns so slowly that it will likely be pretty obvious when things have settled close to that point (or even slightly above would be fine), and people will have plenty to choose from and plenty of time to shop around. And when it finally does turn upward, it won’t be the rocketship it was, so there really is no hurry.

[Ren]

If 125 can get into a primary residence, and possibly even subsidize his mortgage with a roommate or two, why would you all try and Tell him to time the market?

How about to save well over a hundred grand?

Prices are already well off their highs

Not in 4S they’re not.

…and there truly is no way to know when the bottom has hit until it has already passed.

Not entirely true. We know approximately where prices should be. The market turns so slowly that it will likely be pretty obvious when things have settled close to that point (or even slightly above would be fine), and people will have plenty to choose from and plenty of time to shop around. And when it finally does turn upward, it won’t be the rocketship it was, so there really is no hurry.

[Ren]

If 125 can get into a primary residence, and possibly even subsidize his mortgage with a roommate or two, why would you all try and Tell him to time the market?

How about to save well over a hundred grand?

Prices are already well off their highs

Not in 4S they’re not.

…and there truly is no way to know when the bottom has hit until it has already passed.

Not entirely true. We know approximately where prices should be. The market turns so slowly that it will likely be pretty obvious when things have settled close to that point (or even slightly above would be fine), and people will have plenty to choose from and plenty of time to shop around. And when it finally does turn upward, it won’t be the rocketship it was, so there really is no hurry.

[Ren]

If 125 can get into a primary residence, and possibly even subsidize his mortgage with a roommate or two, why would you all try and Tell him to time the market?

How about to save well over a hundred grand?

Prices are already well off their highs

Not in 4S they’re not.

…and there truly is no way to know when the bottom has hit until it has already passed.

Not entirely true. We know approximately where prices should be. The market turns so slowly that it will likely be pretty obvious when things have settled close to that point (or even slightly above would be fine), and people will have plenty to choose from and plenty of time to shop around. And when it finally does turn upward, it won’t be the rocketship it was, so there really is no hurry.

[Ren]

If 125 can get into a primary residence, and possibly even subsidize his mortgage with a roommate or two, why would you all try and Tell him to time the market?

How about to save well over a hundred grand?

Prices are already well off their highs

Not in 4S they’re not.

…and there truly is no way to know when the bottom has hit until it has already passed.

Not entirely true. We know approximately where prices should be. The market turns so slowly that it will likely be pretty obvious when things have settled close to that point (or even slightly above would be fine), and people will have plenty to choose from and plenty of time to shop around. And when it finally does turn upward, it won’t be the rocketship it was, so there really is no hurry.

[EconProf]

BobS
Something should be said here about momentum when discussing economic or real estate cycles. We can study historical trends and, with the benefit of hindsight, graph long swings up and then down, generally lasting many years peak to peak, or trough to trough.
The latest figures confirm that the current downswing in housing prices is accelerating. We also know prices peaked in about mid to late 2005. Is it not logical that before anyone tries to call a bottom, we should at least see prices going down less fast?
There are so many factors that will contribute to the decline in 2008–factors that will actually reinforce one another and worsen the drop.
Anyone weighing the economics of buying now should add up the usual PITI, HOA & Mello Roos if applicable, the opportunity cost of the down payment (forgone interest income), the fixed transaction cost of buying spread out over the likely time of ownership, and maybe the moving costs if applicable. Translate that into a monthly figure. Then add in as a monthly cost 1% of the price, since that would be the likely drop in value of any house or condo you can expect in 2008.

[EconProf]

BobS
Something should be said here about momentum when discussing economic or real estate cycles. We can study historical trends and, with the benefit of hindsight, graph long swings up and then down, generally lasting many years peak to peak, or trough to trough.
The latest figures confirm that the current downswing in housing prices is accelerating. We also know prices peaked in about mid to late 2005. Is it not logical that before anyone tries to call a bottom, we should at least see prices going down less fast?
There are so many factors that will contribute to the decline in 2008–factors that will actually reinforce one another and worsen the drop.
Anyone weighing the economics of buying now should add up the usual PITI, HOA & Mello Roos if applicable, the opportunity cost of the down payment (forgone interest income), the fixed transaction cost of buying spread out over the likely time of ownership, and maybe the moving costs if applicable. Translate that into a monthly figure. Then add in as a monthly cost 1% of the price, since that would be the likely drop in value of any house or condo you can expect in 2008.

[EconProf]

BobS
Something should be said here about momentum when discussing economic or real estate cycles. We can study historical trends and, with the benefit of hindsight, graph long swings up and then down, generally lasting many years peak to peak, or trough to trough.
The latest figures confirm that the current downswing in housing prices is accelerating. We also know prices peaked in about mid to late 2005. Is it not logical that before anyone tries to call a bottom, we should at least see prices going down less fast?
There are so many factors that will contribute to the decline in 2008–factors that will actually reinforce one another and worsen the drop.
Anyone weighing the economics of buying now should add up the usual PITI, HOA & Mello Roos if applicable, the opportunity cost of the down payment (forgone interest income), the fixed transaction cost of buying spread out over the likely time of ownership, and maybe the moving costs if applicable. Translate that into a monthly figure. Then add in as a monthly cost 1% of the price, since that would be the likely drop in value of any house or condo you can expect in 2008.

[EconProf]

BobS
Something should be said here about momentum when discussing economic or real estate cycles. We can study historical trends and, with the benefit of hindsight, graph long swings up and then down, generally lasting many years peak to peak, or trough to trough.
The latest figures confirm that the current downswing in housing prices is accelerating. We also know prices peaked in about mid to late 2005. Is it not logical that before anyone tries to call a bottom, we should at least see prices going down less fast?
There are so many factors that will contribute to the decline in 2008–factors that will actually reinforce one another and worsen the drop.
Anyone weighing the economics of buying now should add up the usual PITI, HOA & Mello Roos if applicable, the opportunity cost of the down payment (forgone interest income), the fixed transaction cost of buying spread out over the likely time of ownership, and maybe the moving costs if applicable. Translate that into a monthly figure. Then add in as a monthly cost 1% of the price, since that would be the likely drop in value of any house or condo you can expect in 2008.

[EconProf]

BobS
Something should be said here about momentum when discussing economic or real estate cycles. We can study historical trends and, with the benefit of hindsight, graph long swings up and then down, generally lasting many years peak to peak, or trough to trough.
The latest figures confirm that the current downswing in housing prices is accelerating. We also know prices peaked in about mid to late 2005. Is it not logical that before anyone tries to call a bottom, we should at least see prices going down less fast?
There are so many factors that will contribute to the decline in 2008–factors that will actually reinforce one another and worsen the drop.
Anyone weighing the economics of buying now should add up the usual PITI, HOA & Mello Roos if applicable, the opportunity cost of the down payment (forgone interest income), the fixed transaction cost of buying spread out over the likely time of ownership, and maybe the moving costs if applicable. Translate that into a monthly figure. Then add in as a monthly cost 1% of the price, since that would be the likely drop in value of any house or condo you can expect in 2008.

[SD Realtor]

Bobs good point regarding market momentum.

RO understand that my stance regarding the advice to 125 is based on his/her demographic. If he/she posts that there is a family involved looking for a school district and a place to set down roots for a long haul then that would be different. However for a young professional who is single, making over 150k in this market, who has never owned a home it seems like waiting a bit longer is much more prudent advice. Consider how much cash he/she could bank while waiting.

Furthermore I feel that any advice to a person that includes getting roommates to subsidize the cost of the investment is poor advice.You own a home so you don’t have to tolerate roommates, vacancies, pains in the asses, landlords, etc.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bobs good point regarding market momentum.

RO understand that my stance regarding the advice to 125 is based on his/her demographic. If he/she posts that there is a family involved looking for a school district and a place to set down roots for a long haul then that would be different. However for a young professional who is single, making over 150k in this market, who has never owned a home it seems like waiting a bit longer is much more prudent advice. Consider how much cash he/she could bank while waiting.

Furthermore I feel that any advice to a person that includes getting roommates to subsidize the cost of the investment is poor advice.You own a home so you don’t have to tolerate roommates, vacancies, pains in the asses, landlords, etc.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bobs good point regarding market momentum.

RO understand that my stance regarding the advice to 125 is based on his/her demographic. If he/she posts that there is a family involved looking for a school district and a place to set down roots for a long haul then that would be different. However for a young professional who is single, making over 150k in this market, who has never owned a home it seems like waiting a bit longer is much more prudent advice. Consider how much cash he/she could bank while waiting.

Furthermore I feel that any advice to a person that includes getting roommates to subsidize the cost of the investment is poor advice.You own a home so you don’t have to tolerate roommates, vacancies, pains in the asses, landlords, etc.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bobs good point regarding market momentum.

RO understand that my stance regarding the advice to 125 is based on his/her demographic. If he/she posts that there is a family involved looking for a school district and a place to set down roots for a long haul then that would be different. However for a young professional who is single, making over 150k in this market, who has never owned a home it seems like waiting a bit longer is much more prudent advice. Consider how much cash he/she could bank while waiting.

Furthermore I feel that any advice to a person that includes getting roommates to subsidize the cost of the investment is poor advice.You own a home so you don’t have to tolerate roommates, vacancies, pains in the asses, landlords, etc.

SD Realtor

[Author]

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