I’m out again

[equalizer]

sdr,

Don’t know if you read this in WSJ on the 24th:
“Bulls of March Look Set to Trade in Their Horns –
Those Who Called Bottom in March Say Prices Look Overvalued”. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125106232283552019.html

“Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.”

After 51% run on S&P 500 from March, a correction is reasonable esp in the worst month of year for stocks, Sep. Market is going up with declining volume, usually a bearish sign.

For those who are like charts, a bullish case can be found here: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/200turnuppublic/

Basically the 50 DMA crossed the 200 DMA and slope of 200 DMA turned positive. Emerging markets and copper roared after slope of 200 DMA turned positive in 2003. S&P 500 only went up 69%, so even if we repeat we are only looking at 15% upside from here.

For extensive asset sector breakdown check out
http://ciovaccocapital.com/CCM%20ASD%20AUG%202009%20PDF%20SUN.pdf

I’ve thoroughly confused myself now, so time to hope and hold.

Some conservative funds with good long-term managers for beginners to consider :

Vanguard Health Care VGHCX
Janus Flexible Bond J JAFIX
Oakmark Eqty Income OAKBX
Sextant International SSIFX
Artisan Intl Value ARTKX
TCW Total Bond TGLMX

And the surprise is HighMark CA Interm Tx-Fr Bond Fid HMITX, up 5% for year, tax free which I did buy in Dec 08.

[kcal09]

The contrarian approach usually works well. When people buy I sell and vice versa. Over the last weeks I have lightened up and once the market drops I get in again.

[kcal09]

The contrarian approach usually works well. When people buy I sell and vice versa. Over the last weeks I have lightened up and once the market drops I get in again.

[kcal09]

The contrarian approach usually works well. When people buy I sell and vice versa. Over the last weeks I have lightened up and once the market drops I get in again.

[kcal09]

The contrarian approach usually works well. When people buy I sell and vice versa. Over the last weeks I have lightened up and once the market drops I get in again.

[kcal09]

The contrarian approach usually works well. When people buy I sell and vice versa. Over the last weeks I have lightened up and once the market drops I get in again.

[LesBaer45]

[quote=Eugene]Always remember about taxes … if it’s a retirement account, you’re okay … if it’s not, you’ll pay 35-40% in taxes on any gains you make. And, if you bought a house or intend to buy a house this year, capital gains due to the sale might just be enough to kick your AGI above the $8000 tax credit eligibility threshold. You should always do the math.

If you’re investing outside 401k/IRA, it may be more profitable to wait out a small correction long stocks till you lock in the LTCG status, than to bail at the first sign of danger.

On the subject of feelings, I fully understand your feelings, but my rational side tells me that the stock market has enough strength left for one more rally. Maybe I’ll exit in October.[/quote]

I’m not selling a house, just trying to pay it off. It was bought way back in ’96 and this one set me back way more than the pittance I made on the previous one.

I’m with you on trying to stretch it to the LTCG threshold. I’ve been burned trying to do that in the past however, sometimes it’s better to take the tax hit than watch any gains and your principal go down the tubes. BTDT the T shirt fell apart already.

I think I still have some previous losses I can carry over to help anyway.

I’m with Eugene on the possibility of a fall rebound. A lot of maybes have to happen but reality doesn’t seem to apply anymore so I’ll just decline to fight that trend and see if I can milk it for all it’s worth.

Who’s running the odds on a major drop because no one will hold over the long Labor Day weekend?

I’m figuring it’s 3-1 right now.

[LesBaer45]

[quote=Eugene]Always remember about taxes … if it’s a retirement account, you’re okay … if it’s not, you’ll pay 35-40% in taxes on any gains you make. And, if you bought a house or intend to buy a house this year, capital gains due to the sale might just be enough to kick your AGI above the $8000 tax credit eligibility threshold. You should always do the math.

If you’re investing outside 401k/IRA, it may be more profitable to wait out a small correction long stocks till you lock in the LTCG status, than to bail at the first sign of danger.

On the subject of feelings, I fully understand your feelings, but my rational side tells me that the stock market has enough strength left for one more rally. Maybe I’ll exit in October.[/quote]

I’m not selling a house, just trying to pay it off. It was bought way back in ’96 and this one set me back way more than the pittance I made on the previous one.

I’m with you on trying to stretch it to the LTCG threshold. I’ve been burned trying to do that in the past however, sometimes it’s better to take the tax hit than watch any gains and your principal go down the tubes. BTDT the T shirt fell apart already.

I think I still have some previous losses I can carry over to help anyway.

I’m with Eugene on the possibility of a fall rebound. A lot of maybes have to happen but reality doesn’t seem to apply anymore so I’ll just decline to fight that trend and see if I can milk it for all it’s worth.

Who’s running the odds on a major drop because no one will hold over the long Labor Day weekend?

I’m figuring it’s 3-1 right now.

[LesBaer45]

[quote=Eugene]Always remember about taxes … if it’s a retirement account, you’re okay … if it’s not, you’ll pay 35-40% in taxes on any gains you make. And, if you bought a house or intend to buy a house this year, capital gains due to the sale might just be enough to kick your AGI above the $8000 tax credit eligibility threshold. You should always do the math.

If you’re investing outside 401k/IRA, it may be more profitable to wait out a small correction long stocks till you lock in the LTCG status, than to bail at the first sign of danger.

On the subject of feelings, I fully understand your feelings, but my rational side tells me that the stock market has enough strength left for one more rally. Maybe I’ll exit in October.[/quote]

I’m not selling a house, just trying to pay it off. It was bought way back in ’96 and this one set me back way more than the pittance I made on the previous one.

I’m with you on trying to stretch it to the LTCG threshold. I’ve been burned trying to do that in the past however, sometimes it’s better to take the tax hit than watch any gains and your principal go down the tubes. BTDT the T shirt fell apart already.

I think I still have some previous losses I can carry over to help anyway.

I’m with Eugene on the possibility of a fall rebound. A lot of maybes have to happen but reality doesn’t seem to apply anymore so I’ll just decline to fight that trend and see if I can milk it for all it’s worth.

Who’s running the odds on a major drop because no one will hold over the long Labor Day weekend?

I’m figuring it’s 3-1 right now.

[LesBaer45]

[quote=Eugene]Always remember about taxes … if it’s a retirement account, you’re okay … if it’s not, you’ll pay 35-40% in taxes on any gains you make. And, if you bought a house or intend to buy a house this year, capital gains due to the sale might just be enough to kick your AGI above the $8000 tax credit eligibility threshold. You should always do the math.

If you’re investing outside 401k/IRA, it may be more profitable to wait out a small correction long stocks till you lock in the LTCG status, than to bail at the first sign of danger.

On the subject of feelings, I fully understand your feelings, but my rational side tells me that the stock market has enough strength left for one more rally. Maybe I’ll exit in October.[/quote]

I’m not selling a house, just trying to pay it off. It was bought way back in ’96 and this one set me back way more than the pittance I made on the previous one.

I’m with you on trying to stretch it to the LTCG threshold. I’ve been burned trying to do that in the past however, sometimes it’s better to take the tax hit than watch any gains and your principal go down the tubes. BTDT the T shirt fell apart already.

I think I still have some previous losses I can carry over to help anyway.

I’m with Eugene on the possibility of a fall rebound. A lot of maybes have to happen but reality doesn’t seem to apply anymore so I’ll just decline to fight that trend and see if I can milk it for all it’s worth.

Who’s running the odds on a major drop because no one will hold over the long Labor Day weekend?

I’m figuring it’s 3-1 right now.

[LesBaer45]

[quote=Eugene]Always remember about taxes … if it’s a retirement account, you’re okay … if it’s not, you’ll pay 35-40% in taxes on any gains you make. And, if you bought a house or intend to buy a house this year, capital gains due to the sale might just be enough to kick your AGI above the $8000 tax credit eligibility threshold. You should always do the math.

If you’re investing outside 401k/IRA, it may be more profitable to wait out a small correction long stocks till you lock in the LTCG status, than to bail at the first sign of danger.

On the subject of feelings, I fully understand your feelings, but my rational side tells me that the stock market has enough strength left for one more rally. Maybe I’ll exit in October.[/quote]

I’m not selling a house, just trying to pay it off. It was bought way back in ’96 and this one set me back way more than the pittance I made on the previous one.

I’m with you on trying to stretch it to the LTCG threshold. I’ve been burned trying to do that in the past however, sometimes it’s better to take the tax hit than watch any gains and your principal go down the tubes. BTDT the T shirt fell apart already.

I think I still have some previous losses I can carry over to help anyway.

I’m with Eugene on the possibility of a fall rebound. A lot of maybes have to happen but reality doesn’t seem to apply anymore so I’ll just decline to fight that trend and see if I can milk it for all it’s worth.

Who’s running the odds on a major drop because no one will hold over the long Labor Day weekend?

I’m figuring it’s 3-1 right now.

[sdrealtor]

equalizer
didnt see it but kinda remembered that Sept is not a good month ofr stocks traditionally. I’m not calling a top here just a time that I want to get out and watch for a while. Things seem too easy right now with the market going up and when things seem too easy my gut tells me they are and that its time for a break.

[sdrealtor]

equalizer
didnt see it but kinda remembered that Sept is not a good month ofr stocks traditionally. I’m not calling a top here just a time that I want to get out and watch for a while. Things seem too easy right now with the market going up and when things seem too easy my gut tells me they are and that its time for a break.

[sdrealtor]

equalizer
didnt see it but kinda remembered that Sept is not a good month ofr stocks traditionally. I’m not calling a top here just a time that I want to get out and watch for a while. Things seem too easy right now with the market going up and when things seem too easy my gut tells me they are and that its time for a break.

[sdrealtor]

equalizer
didnt see it but kinda remembered that Sept is not a good month ofr stocks traditionally. I’m not calling a top here just a time that I want to get out and watch for a while. Things seem too easy right now with the market going up and when things seem too easy my gut tells me they are and that its time for a break.

[Author]

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