Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[briansd1]

[quote=jstoesz]a neighborhood to me has a few defining characteristics. None of these are deal breakers, but a majority is necessary to define what I am looking for.

1) walkable to something (resaurants, gas station, movie theater, grocery store, Yatch club (I kid)).

2. Has a name (la mesa, del mar, shelter island, solana, encinitas, roseville, you know what I mean, tract names don’t count, singing meadows need not apply)

3. has side walks (I guess this buttresses on number 1)

4. Organic (this may be synonymous with custom homes and custom commercial centers but I don’t think it has to be) It just has to come about organically as in no plans.

5. Character (yup I am leaving this undefined, but it probably has to do with #4)

6. History (I want vintage photos)

7. walkable (but I repeat myself)[/quote]

Very well said.
The new suburbs are like death IMHO.

[jpinpb]

[quote=jstoesz]Just like to point out that buying a decade ago was a better time for appreciation than today. [/quote]
Without a doubt. Way different market, IMO.

[jpinpb]

[quote=jstoesz]Just like to point out that buying a decade ago was a better time for appreciation than today. [/quote]
Without a doubt. Way different market, IMO.

[jpinpb]

[quote=jstoesz]Just like to point out that buying a decade ago was a better time for appreciation than today. [/quote]
Without a doubt. Way different market, IMO.

[jpinpb]

[quote=jstoesz]Just like to point out that buying a decade ago was a better time for appreciation than today. [/quote]
Without a doubt. Way different market, IMO.

[jpinpb]

[quote=jstoesz]Just like to point out that buying a decade ago was a better time for appreciation than today. [/quote]
Without a doubt. Way different market, IMO.

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, all I’m saying is your thesis that the stock market being up somehow buoys the RE market doesn’t pass the smell test. If that were the case then why did the RE market take off at the same time the stock market collapsed in 2000?

Furthermore, in 2000/2001 we wire in a mild recession, 9-11 happened and the stock market collapsed. Phsychology was very negative. Yet, the RE market took off…

But going forward I agree it is most likely that if RE market prices collapse in the next few years, stock market will also. I just don’t agree that it is a cause and effect like you guys do.[/quote]

Actually, the housing market DID slow down in ~2001, right along with the stock market. IMHO, this marked the “natural” top of the housing market, everything after that was a result of the credit bubble. It rose during the stock market bubble, as well. Prices in our old neighborhood had already doubled by 2001, and things had started to slow when the stock bubble burst — and I was watching a number of areas, just like today, and the slowdown hit everywhere.

The reason many people didn’t notice the slowdown in RE was because of this (note 2000-2002):

http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/

…and the resulting housing bubble quickly took off, with the downturn just a small blip on the screen.

Just because one market lags a bit, doesn’t mean that it’s not correlated. The stock market picked up soon after the housing bubble began as well.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S52GxEmyvwI/AAAAAAAAHxU/cnjy-9UUPS0/s1600-h/NAHBHousingStarts.jpg

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, all I’m saying is your thesis that the stock market being up somehow buoys the RE market doesn’t pass the smell test. If that were the case then why did the RE market take off at the same time the stock market collapsed in 2000?

Furthermore, in 2000/2001 we wire in a mild recession, 9-11 happened and the stock market collapsed. Phsychology was very negative. Yet, the RE market took off…

But going forward I agree it is most likely that if RE market prices collapse in the next few years, stock market will also. I just don’t agree that it is a cause and effect like you guys do.[/quote]

Actually, the housing market DID slow down in ~2001, right along with the stock market. IMHO, this marked the “natural” top of the housing market, everything after that was a result of the credit bubble. It rose during the stock market bubble, as well. Prices in our old neighborhood had already doubled by 2001, and things had started to slow when the stock bubble burst — and I was watching a number of areas, just like today, and the slowdown hit everywhere.

The reason many people didn’t notice the slowdown in RE was because of this (note 2000-2002):

http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/

…and the resulting housing bubble quickly took off, with the downturn just a small blip on the screen.

Just because one market lags a bit, doesn’t mean that it’s not correlated. The stock market picked up soon after the housing bubble began as well.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S52GxEmyvwI/AAAAAAAAHxU/cnjy-9UUPS0/s1600-h/NAHBHousingStarts.jpg

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, all I’m saying is your thesis that the stock market being up somehow buoys the RE market doesn’t pass the smell test. If that were the case then why did the RE market take off at the same time the stock market collapsed in 2000?

Furthermore, in 2000/2001 we wire in a mild recession, 9-11 happened and the stock market collapsed. Phsychology was very negative. Yet, the RE market took off…

But going forward I agree it is most likely that if RE market prices collapse in the next few years, stock market will also. I just don’t agree that it is a cause and effect like you guys do.[/quote]

Actually, the housing market DID slow down in ~2001, right along with the stock market. IMHO, this marked the “natural” top of the housing market, everything after that was a result of the credit bubble. It rose during the stock market bubble, as well. Prices in our old neighborhood had already doubled by 2001, and things had started to slow when the stock bubble burst — and I was watching a number of areas, just like today, and the slowdown hit everywhere.

The reason many people didn’t notice the slowdown in RE was because of this (note 2000-2002):

http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/

…and the resulting housing bubble quickly took off, with the downturn just a small blip on the screen.

Just because one market lags a bit, doesn’t mean that it’s not correlated. The stock market picked up soon after the housing bubble began as well.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S52GxEmyvwI/AAAAAAAAHxU/cnjy-9UUPS0/s1600-h/NAHBHousingStarts.jpg

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, all I’m saying is your thesis that the stock market being up somehow buoys the RE market doesn’t pass the smell test. If that were the case then why did the RE market take off at the same time the stock market collapsed in 2000?

Furthermore, in 2000/2001 we wire in a mild recession, 9-11 happened and the stock market collapsed. Phsychology was very negative. Yet, the RE market took off…

But going forward I agree it is most likely that if RE market prices collapse in the next few years, stock market will also. I just don’t agree that it is a cause and effect like you guys do.[/quote]

Actually, the housing market DID slow down in ~2001, right along with the stock market. IMHO, this marked the “natural” top of the housing market, everything after that was a result of the credit bubble. It rose during the stock market bubble, as well. Prices in our old neighborhood had already doubled by 2001, and things had started to slow when the stock bubble burst — and I was watching a number of areas, just like today, and the slowdown hit everywhere.

The reason many people didn’t notice the slowdown in RE was because of this (note 2000-2002):

http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/

…and the resulting housing bubble quickly took off, with the downturn just a small blip on the screen.

Just because one market lags a bit, doesn’t mean that it’s not correlated. The stock market picked up soon after the housing bubble began as well.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S52GxEmyvwI/AAAAAAAAHxU/cnjy-9UUPS0/s1600-h/NAHBHousingStarts.jpg

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, all I’m saying is your thesis that the stock market being up somehow buoys the RE market doesn’t pass the smell test. If that were the case then why did the RE market take off at the same time the stock market collapsed in 2000?

Furthermore, in 2000/2001 we wire in a mild recession, 9-11 happened and the stock market collapsed. Phsychology was very negative. Yet, the RE market took off…

But going forward I agree it is most likely that if RE market prices collapse in the next few years, stock market will also. I just don’t agree that it is a cause and effect like you guys do.[/quote]

Actually, the housing market DID slow down in ~2001, right along with the stock market. IMHO, this marked the “natural” top of the housing market, everything after that was a result of the credit bubble. It rose during the stock market bubble, as well. Prices in our old neighborhood had already doubled by 2001, and things had started to slow when the stock bubble burst — and I was watching a number of areas, just like today, and the slowdown hit everywhere.

The reason many people didn’t notice the slowdown in RE was because of this (note 2000-2002):

http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/

…and the resulting housing bubble quickly took off, with the downturn just a small blip on the screen.

Just because one market lags a bit, doesn’t mean that it’s not correlated. The stock market picked up soon after the housing bubble began as well.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S52GxEmyvwI/AAAAAAAAHxU/cnjy-9UUPS0/s1600-h/NAHBHousingStarts.jpg

[masayako]

sdr,

What’s the point to keep educating folks who refuse to look at the real numbers? Some of permabears who NEED to believe housing is going to crash ‘sometime in the near future’ so they can get in.

The truth is: they passed the previous dip and missed out the good rate, so now they wishfully hope for a 2nd crash to get in.

My facts: why I bought this year?
1. I bought about a month ago and my monthly payment is $2000. To rent the same house, I will need to pay $2500.

2. Interest rate was low: 4.25% to 4.5% for a 30 yrs fixed when I bought. 27% down I paid with excellent credit.

3. The house I bought was $650k 5 yrs ago and now it is $540k with a better view. 100k cheaper to buy.

4. I cashed out some of my stock gain from investment account (not 401k) to pay the down payment. Not everyone lose money in stock market in the last few years, I was actually up 30%

5. I focused on 92128, 92129, 92064, 92121, 92131 NCC area. As sdr said, one can’t merely depend on macro data to make a local RE decision. Each house is unique and there are deals out there already.

sdr:
I suggest you to stop wasting time to debate with permabears, 🙂 precious time should be spent talking to logical people who really understand the local R.E. market down to the street level. We used to have many like that around here and I learned a lot from them.

To people who debating sdr pointlessly:

I am a housing bear myself but one has to understand the power of govt. manipulation & how monetary system work. Invest in the right place. Take profit and move on to the next wave. You can’t beat them, they won’t allow it. I constantly find a way to work the system. Talking bearishly with no real data is just ignorant. sdr brought local RE data (always) on the table and one should respect that.

If you don’t, good luck. I hope you sit on the sideline based on C-S index or national financial data while we are taking the local good deals out there. Less people want to buy, the better. We don’t need more demands here while the supply is short anyway.

-masayako

[masayako]

sdr,

What’s the point to keep educating folks who refuse to look at the real numbers? Some of permabears who NEED to believe housing is going to crash ‘sometime in the near future’ so they can get in.

The truth is: they passed the previous dip and missed out the good rate, so now they wishfully hope for a 2nd crash to get in.

My facts: why I bought this year?
1. I bought about a month ago and my monthly payment is $2000. To rent the same house, I will need to pay $2500.

2. Interest rate was low: 4.25% to 4.5% for a 30 yrs fixed when I bought. 27% down I paid with excellent credit.

3. The house I bought was $650k 5 yrs ago and now it is $540k with a better view. 100k cheaper to buy.

4. I cashed out some of my stock gain from investment account (not 401k) to pay the down payment. Not everyone lose money in stock market in the last few years, I was actually up 30%

5. I focused on 92128, 92129, 92064, 92121, 92131 NCC area. As sdr said, one can’t merely depend on macro data to make a local RE decision. Each house is unique and there are deals out there already.

sdr:
I suggest you to stop wasting time to debate with permabears, 🙂 precious time should be spent talking to logical people who really understand the local R.E. market down to the street level. We used to have many like that around here and I learned a lot from them.

To people who debating sdr pointlessly:

I am a housing bear myself but one has to understand the power of govt. manipulation & how monetary system work. Invest in the right place. Take profit and move on to the next wave. You can’t beat them, they won’t allow it. I constantly find a way to work the system. Talking bearishly with no real data is just ignorant. sdr brought local RE data (always) on the table and one should respect that.

If you don’t, good luck. I hope you sit on the sideline based on C-S index or national financial data while we are taking the local good deals out there. Less people want to buy, the better. We don’t need more demands here while the supply is short anyway.

-masayako

[masayako]

sdr,

What’s the point to keep educating folks who refuse to look at the real numbers? Some of permabears who NEED to believe housing is going to crash ‘sometime in the near future’ so they can get in.

The truth is: they passed the previous dip and missed out the good rate, so now they wishfully hope for a 2nd crash to get in.

My facts: why I bought this year?
1. I bought about a month ago and my monthly payment is $2000. To rent the same house, I will need to pay $2500.

2. Interest rate was low: 4.25% to 4.5% for a 30 yrs fixed when I bought. 27% down I paid with excellent credit.

3. The house I bought was $650k 5 yrs ago and now it is $540k with a better view. 100k cheaper to buy.

4. I cashed out some of my stock gain from investment account (not 401k) to pay the down payment. Not everyone lose money in stock market in the last few years, I was actually up 30%

5. I focused on 92128, 92129, 92064, 92121, 92131 NCC area. As sdr said, one can’t merely depend on macro data to make a local RE decision. Each house is unique and there are deals out there already.

sdr:
I suggest you to stop wasting time to debate with permabears, 🙂 precious time should be spent talking to logical people who really understand the local R.E. market down to the street level. We used to have many like that around here and I learned a lot from them.

To people who debating sdr pointlessly:

I am a housing bear myself but one has to understand the power of govt. manipulation & how monetary system work. Invest in the right place. Take profit and move on to the next wave. You can’t beat them, they won’t allow it. I constantly find a way to work the system. Talking bearishly with no real data is just ignorant. sdr brought local RE data (always) on the table and one should respect that.

If you don’t, good luck. I hope you sit on the sideline based on C-S index or national financial data while we are taking the local good deals out there. Less people want to buy, the better. We don’t need more demands here while the supply is short anyway.

-masayako

[masayako]

sdr,

What’s the point to keep educating folks who refuse to look at the real numbers? Some of permabears who NEED to believe housing is going to crash ‘sometime in the near future’ so they can get in.

The truth is: they passed the previous dip and missed out the good rate, so now they wishfully hope for a 2nd crash to get in.

My facts: why I bought this year?
1. I bought about a month ago and my monthly payment is $2000. To rent the same house, I will need to pay $2500.

2. Interest rate was low: 4.25% to 4.5% for a 30 yrs fixed when I bought. 27% down I paid with excellent credit.

3. The house I bought was $650k 5 yrs ago and now it is $540k with a better view. 100k cheaper to buy.

4. I cashed out some of my stock gain from investment account (not 401k) to pay the down payment. Not everyone lose money in stock market in the last few years, I was actually up 30%

5. I focused on 92128, 92129, 92064, 92121, 92131 NCC area. As sdr said, one can’t merely depend on macro data to make a local RE decision. Each house is unique and there are deals out there already.

sdr:
I suggest you to stop wasting time to debate with permabears, 🙂 precious time should be spent talking to logical people who really understand the local R.E. market down to the street level. We used to have many like that around here and I learned a lot from them.

To people who debating sdr pointlessly:

I am a housing bear myself but one has to understand the power of govt. manipulation & how monetary system work. Invest in the right place. Take profit and move on to the next wave. You can’t beat them, they won’t allow it. I constantly find a way to work the system. Talking bearishly with no real data is just ignorant. sdr brought local RE data (always) on the table and one should respect that.

If you don’t, good luck. I hope you sit on the sideline based on C-S index or national financial data while we are taking the local good deals out there. Less people want to buy, the better. We don’t need more demands here while the supply is short anyway.

-masayako

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