Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Flu do you disagree that Fed policy is the major reason for both the housing and stock bubbles?[/quote]

No i don’t, but I don’t see a point in arguing whether we think RE is going tank or not.

1)You already made up your mind that you think the majority of people are in trouble and doom and gloom. Maybe it is among your peers or your submarket, not among mine…So we’re probably not looking at the same things…I don’t know.

2)I’m really not on the fence looking to buy another house. I can see if the price is right for an investment purpose, maybe but I don’t feel I have a pressing need to. I’m also weighing the PITA factor of being a landlord, since it’s not like I have a lot time these days to dick around with a backed up sink or toilet too.

3)I’m not one who is in your category who bought with a 100% financed ALT or arm loan in 2004 who would be in trouble, and neither are any of the folks that I hang out with. In fact, things are looking pretty rosy for me, frankly since 6 years later, I’m at a 45% LTV and come February I should be able to pay down more of this if the equity markets hold up. I’m not alone in this feeling too, since peers and I all have the same quarterly vesting schedules 🙂

But like I said, if you think the RE markets are a ways to go, than sure wait. More power to you.

Maybe, I’m just going through a mid-life crisis a slightly over a decade earlier…But I’d like to enjoy my life a bit every now and then, and what it comes down to for me is whether I can afford it.

[blahblahblah]

[quote=zzz][quote=CONCHO]Whoah, that house on Upas closed at $819K! I had been watching that one, it was listed in the low 7s. It’s a cool place, the location next to the park is neat. Probably would’ve been $1M+ back in 2007.[/quote]

Concho, I think 819k was a steal[/quote]

I think you’re probably right. I was surprised to see it listed in the 7s but maybe that was just to build interest. I was kind of worried having bought my place not far from there in ’09 but this one went quite a bit higher PPSF-wise. To be expected with the location.

I showed it to my wife and she liked the house but not the location, she felt it was a little spooky and might be unsafe. That street is dark at night as is the alley in the back. Plus you’re right there next to the Upas trailhead, someone could be in your house and on the other side of the park 5 minutes later. There is quite a bit of “wildlife” to be found in the park, and I’m not talking about the four-legged variety. It’s good to be near the park but sometimes you might be too near to it…

[blahblahblah]

[quote=zzz][quote=CONCHO]Whoah, that house on Upas closed at $819K! I had been watching that one, it was listed in the low 7s. It’s a cool place, the location next to the park is neat. Probably would’ve been $1M+ back in 2007.[/quote]

Concho, I think 819k was a steal[/quote]

I think you’re probably right. I was surprised to see it listed in the 7s but maybe that was just to build interest. I was kind of worried having bought my place not far from there in ’09 but this one went quite a bit higher PPSF-wise. To be expected with the location.

I showed it to my wife and she liked the house but not the location, she felt it was a little spooky and might be unsafe. That street is dark at night as is the alley in the back. Plus you’re right there next to the Upas trailhead, someone could be in your house and on the other side of the park 5 minutes later. There is quite a bit of “wildlife” to be found in the park, and I’m not talking about the four-legged variety. It’s good to be near the park but sometimes you might be too near to it…

[blahblahblah]

[quote=zzz][quote=CONCHO]Whoah, that house on Upas closed at $819K! I had been watching that one, it was listed in the low 7s. It’s a cool place, the location next to the park is neat. Probably would’ve been $1M+ back in 2007.[/quote]

Concho, I think 819k was a steal[/quote]

I think you’re probably right. I was surprised to see it listed in the 7s but maybe that was just to build interest. I was kind of worried having bought my place not far from there in ’09 but this one went quite a bit higher PPSF-wise. To be expected with the location.

I showed it to my wife and she liked the house but not the location, she felt it was a little spooky and might be unsafe. That street is dark at night as is the alley in the back. Plus you’re right there next to the Upas trailhead, someone could be in your house and on the other side of the park 5 minutes later. There is quite a bit of “wildlife” to be found in the park, and I’m not talking about the four-legged variety. It’s good to be near the park but sometimes you might be too near to it…

[blahblahblah]

[quote=zzz][quote=CONCHO]Whoah, that house on Upas closed at $819K! I had been watching that one, it was listed in the low 7s. It’s a cool place, the location next to the park is neat. Probably would’ve been $1M+ back in 2007.[/quote]

Concho, I think 819k was a steal[/quote]

I think you’re probably right. I was surprised to see it listed in the 7s but maybe that was just to build interest. I was kind of worried having bought my place not far from there in ’09 but this one went quite a bit higher PPSF-wise. To be expected with the location.

I showed it to my wife and she liked the house but not the location, she felt it was a little spooky and might be unsafe. That street is dark at night as is the alley in the back. Plus you’re right there next to the Upas trailhead, someone could be in your house and on the other side of the park 5 minutes later. There is quite a bit of “wildlife” to be found in the park, and I’m not talking about the four-legged variety. It’s good to be near the park but sometimes you might be too near to it…

[blahblahblah]

[quote=zzz][quote=CONCHO]Whoah, that house on Upas closed at $819K! I had been watching that one, it was listed in the low 7s. It’s a cool place, the location next to the park is neat. Probably would’ve been $1M+ back in 2007.[/quote]

Concho, I think 819k was a steal[/quote]

I think you’re probably right. I was surprised to see it listed in the 7s but maybe that was just to build interest. I was kind of worried having bought my place not far from there in ’09 but this one went quite a bit higher PPSF-wise. To be expected with the location.

I showed it to my wife and she liked the house but not the location, she felt it was a little spooky and might be unsafe. That street is dark at night as is the alley in the back. Plus you’re right there next to the Upas trailhead, someone could be in your house and on the other side of the park 5 minutes later. There is quite a bit of “wildlife” to be found in the park, and I’m not talking about the four-legged variety. It’s good to be near the park but sometimes you might be too near to it…

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jstoesz]a neighborhood to me has a few defining characteristics. None of these are deal breakers, but a majority is necessary to define what I am looking for.

1) walkable to something (resaurants, gas station, movie theater, grocery store, Yatch club (I kid)).

2. Has a name (la mesa, del mar, shelter island, solana, encinitas, roseville, you know what I mean, tract names don’t count, singing meadows need not apply)

3. has side walks (I guess this buttresses on number 1)

4. Organic (this may be synonymous with custom homes and custom commercial centers but I don’t think it has to be) It just has to come about organically as in no plans.

5. Character (yup I am leaving this undefined, but it probably has to do with #4)

6. History (I want vintage photos)

7. walkable (but I repeat myself)[/quote]

jstoesz, had you ever thought of considering dtn Chula Vista/Hilltop area?? It has ALL of your criteria (organic? not sure what that is). The sidewalks are even tree-lined (some more than 80 yrs old), costing the City a FORTUNE to keep trimmed. What few 40’s/50’s tracts are here are so heavily remodeled (2nd stories, mostly) that it is difficult today to tell that they are built on tract. These small mid-century tracts are mixed with Victorians, vintage move-ons, Craftsman bungalows, Prairie-style, Spanish and customs of all ages. Lot sizes vary from 6000 sf to 4 AC; average lot size is about 8500 sf. Best of all, more than half of it is probably in your price range ;=)

Walk to everything. Bus stops everywhere. Trolley 1 mi (buses connect). You can live:

10 mi to the 6th ave I-5 exit (dtn SD, including Balboa Park West)

9 miles to SD Zoo/Balboa Park east end using Florida Cyn

12 mi to Hillcrest

12.5 mi to Lindbergh Field

8 mi to Petco Park

6 mi to NAVSTA

6.5 mi to NASSCO/Southwest Marine

8.5 mi to Int’l Border

8 mi to ampitheatre/water park

8.5 mi to Eastlake Business District (jobs)

3 mi to Pepper Park boat launch (NC)

3 mi to J Street Marina (Chula Vista)

None of these destinations are freeway dependent, however. You don’t ever have to get on a fwy to get to them and the fwy is not a shorter distance

You might compare dtn Chula Vista to Minnesota by the Bay, sans brownstones! Come check it out next time you’re in town!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jstoesz]a neighborhood to me has a few defining characteristics. None of these are deal breakers, but a majority is necessary to define what I am looking for.

1) walkable to something (resaurants, gas station, movie theater, grocery store, Yatch club (I kid)).

2. Has a name (la mesa, del mar, shelter island, solana, encinitas, roseville, you know what I mean, tract names don’t count, singing meadows need not apply)

3. has side walks (I guess this buttresses on number 1)

4. Organic (this may be synonymous with custom homes and custom commercial centers but I don’t think it has to be) It just has to come about organically as in no plans.

5. Character (yup I am leaving this undefined, but it probably has to do with #4)

6. History (I want vintage photos)

7. walkable (but I repeat myself)[/quote]

jstoesz, had you ever thought of considering dtn Chula Vista/Hilltop area?? It has ALL of your criteria (organic? not sure what that is). The sidewalks are even tree-lined (some more than 80 yrs old), costing the City a FORTUNE to keep trimmed. What few 40’s/50’s tracts are here are so heavily remodeled (2nd stories, mostly) that it is difficult today to tell that they are built on tract. These small mid-century tracts are mixed with Victorians, vintage move-ons, Craftsman bungalows, Prairie-style, Spanish and customs of all ages. Lot sizes vary from 6000 sf to 4 AC; average lot size is about 8500 sf. Best of all, more than half of it is probably in your price range ;=)

Walk to everything. Bus stops everywhere. Trolley 1 mi (buses connect). You can live:

10 mi to the 6th ave I-5 exit (dtn SD, including Balboa Park West)

9 miles to SD Zoo/Balboa Park east end using Florida Cyn

12 mi to Hillcrest

12.5 mi to Lindbergh Field

8 mi to Petco Park

6 mi to NAVSTA

6.5 mi to NASSCO/Southwest Marine

8.5 mi to Int’l Border

8 mi to ampitheatre/water park

8.5 mi to Eastlake Business District (jobs)

3 mi to Pepper Park boat launch (NC)

3 mi to J Street Marina (Chula Vista)

None of these destinations are freeway dependent, however. You don’t ever have to get on a fwy to get to them and the fwy is not a shorter distance

You might compare dtn Chula Vista to Minnesota by the Bay, sans brownstones! Come check it out next time you’re in town!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jstoesz]a neighborhood to me has a few defining characteristics. None of these are deal breakers, but a majority is necessary to define what I am looking for.

1) walkable to something (resaurants, gas station, movie theater, grocery store, Yatch club (I kid)).

2. Has a name (la mesa, del mar, shelter island, solana, encinitas, roseville, you know what I mean, tract names don’t count, singing meadows need not apply)

3. has side walks (I guess this buttresses on number 1)

4. Organic (this may be synonymous with custom homes and custom commercial centers but I don’t think it has to be) It just has to come about organically as in no plans.

5. Character (yup I am leaving this undefined, but it probably has to do with #4)

6. History (I want vintage photos)

7. walkable (but I repeat myself)[/quote]

jstoesz, had you ever thought of considering dtn Chula Vista/Hilltop area?? It has ALL of your criteria (organic? not sure what that is). The sidewalks are even tree-lined (some more than 80 yrs old), costing the City a FORTUNE to keep trimmed. What few 40’s/50’s tracts are here are so heavily remodeled (2nd stories, mostly) that it is difficult today to tell that they are built on tract. These small mid-century tracts are mixed with Victorians, vintage move-ons, Craftsman bungalows, Prairie-style, Spanish and customs of all ages. Lot sizes vary from 6000 sf to 4 AC; average lot size is about 8500 sf. Best of all, more than half of it is probably in your price range ;=)

Walk to everything. Bus stops everywhere. Trolley 1 mi (buses connect). You can live:

10 mi to the 6th ave I-5 exit (dtn SD, including Balboa Park West)

9 miles to SD Zoo/Balboa Park east end using Florida Cyn

12 mi to Hillcrest

12.5 mi to Lindbergh Field

8 mi to Petco Park

6 mi to NAVSTA

6.5 mi to NASSCO/Southwest Marine

8.5 mi to Int’l Border

8 mi to ampitheatre/water park

8.5 mi to Eastlake Business District (jobs)

3 mi to Pepper Park boat launch (NC)

3 mi to J Street Marina (Chula Vista)

None of these destinations are freeway dependent, however. You don’t ever have to get on a fwy to get to them and the fwy is not a shorter distance

You might compare dtn Chula Vista to Minnesota by the Bay, sans brownstones! Come check it out next time you’re in town!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jstoesz]a neighborhood to me has a few defining characteristics. None of these are deal breakers, but a majority is necessary to define what I am looking for.

1) walkable to something (resaurants, gas station, movie theater, grocery store, Yatch club (I kid)).

2. Has a name (la mesa, del mar, shelter island, solana, encinitas, roseville, you know what I mean, tract names don’t count, singing meadows need not apply)

3. has side walks (I guess this buttresses on number 1)

4. Organic (this may be synonymous with custom homes and custom commercial centers but I don’t think it has to be) It just has to come about organically as in no plans.

5. Character (yup I am leaving this undefined, but it probably has to do with #4)

6. History (I want vintage photos)

7. walkable (but I repeat myself)[/quote]

jstoesz, had you ever thought of considering dtn Chula Vista/Hilltop area?? It has ALL of your criteria (organic? not sure what that is). The sidewalks are even tree-lined (some more than 80 yrs old), costing the City a FORTUNE to keep trimmed. What few 40’s/50’s tracts are here are so heavily remodeled (2nd stories, mostly) that it is difficult today to tell that they are built on tract. These small mid-century tracts are mixed with Victorians, vintage move-ons, Craftsman bungalows, Prairie-style, Spanish and customs of all ages. Lot sizes vary from 6000 sf to 4 AC; average lot size is about 8500 sf. Best of all, more than half of it is probably in your price range ;=)

Walk to everything. Bus stops everywhere. Trolley 1 mi (buses connect). You can live:

10 mi to the 6th ave I-5 exit (dtn SD, including Balboa Park West)

9 miles to SD Zoo/Balboa Park east end using Florida Cyn

12 mi to Hillcrest

12.5 mi to Lindbergh Field

8 mi to Petco Park

6 mi to NAVSTA

6.5 mi to NASSCO/Southwest Marine

8.5 mi to Int’l Border

8 mi to ampitheatre/water park

8.5 mi to Eastlake Business District (jobs)

3 mi to Pepper Park boat launch (NC)

3 mi to J Street Marina (Chula Vista)

None of these destinations are freeway dependent, however. You don’t ever have to get on a fwy to get to them and the fwy is not a shorter distance

You might compare dtn Chula Vista to Minnesota by the Bay, sans brownstones! Come check it out next time you’re in town!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jstoesz]a neighborhood to me has a few defining characteristics. None of these are deal breakers, but a majority is necessary to define what I am looking for.

1) walkable to something (resaurants, gas station, movie theater, grocery store, Yatch club (I kid)).

2. Has a name (la mesa, del mar, shelter island, solana, encinitas, roseville, you know what I mean, tract names don’t count, singing meadows need not apply)

3. has side walks (I guess this buttresses on number 1)

4. Organic (this may be synonymous with custom homes and custom commercial centers but I don’t think it has to be) It just has to come about organically as in no plans.

5. Character (yup I am leaving this undefined, but it probably has to do with #4)

6. History (I want vintage photos)

7. walkable (but I repeat myself)[/quote]

jstoesz, had you ever thought of considering dtn Chula Vista/Hilltop area?? It has ALL of your criteria (organic? not sure what that is). The sidewalks are even tree-lined (some more than 80 yrs old), costing the City a FORTUNE to keep trimmed. What few 40’s/50’s tracts are here are so heavily remodeled (2nd stories, mostly) that it is difficult today to tell that they are built on tract. These small mid-century tracts are mixed with Victorians, vintage move-ons, Craftsman bungalows, Prairie-style, Spanish and customs of all ages. Lot sizes vary from 6000 sf to 4 AC; average lot size is about 8500 sf. Best of all, more than half of it is probably in your price range ;=)

Walk to everything. Bus stops everywhere. Trolley 1 mi (buses connect). You can live:

10 mi to the 6th ave I-5 exit (dtn SD, including Balboa Park West)

9 miles to SD Zoo/Balboa Park east end using Florida Cyn

12 mi to Hillcrest

12.5 mi to Lindbergh Field

8 mi to Petco Park

6 mi to NAVSTA

6.5 mi to NASSCO/Southwest Marine

8.5 mi to Int’l Border

8 mi to ampitheatre/water park

8.5 mi to Eastlake Business District (jobs)

3 mi to Pepper Park boat launch (NC)

3 mi to J Street Marina (Chula Vista)

None of these destinations are freeway dependent, however. You don’t ever have to get on a fwy to get to them and the fwy is not a shorter distance

You might compare dtn Chula Vista to Minnesota by the Bay, sans brownstones! Come check it out next time you’re in town!

[sdrealtor]

Woah jp,
For many prices ranges it is cheaper to buy and for the highest ones it isnt. I did jstoesz buy vs rent calculator inputting exactly what happened. Over the 11 years I have been hear it came up as a $40,000 net positve decision PER YEAR!

I agree that I tend to be myopic but I know I can find deals all over this county. I am in the process of hammering out a deal on a condo in a great school district (poway) for a 1st time buyer. They are very conservative and he is actually a bank examiner. The costs will be cheaper than rent by at least $200/month without factoring in tax benefits. Sounds like a winner winner chicken dinner to me.

[sdrealtor]

Woah jp,
For many prices ranges it is cheaper to buy and for the highest ones it isnt. I did jstoesz buy vs rent calculator inputting exactly what happened. Over the 11 years I have been hear it came up as a $40,000 net positve decision PER YEAR!

I agree that I tend to be myopic but I know I can find deals all over this county. I am in the process of hammering out a deal on a condo in a great school district (poway) for a 1st time buyer. They are very conservative and he is actually a bank examiner. The costs will be cheaper than rent by at least $200/month without factoring in tax benefits. Sounds like a winner winner chicken dinner to me.

[sdrealtor]

Woah jp,
For many prices ranges it is cheaper to buy and for the highest ones it isnt. I did jstoesz buy vs rent calculator inputting exactly what happened. Over the 11 years I have been hear it came up as a $40,000 net positve decision PER YEAR!

I agree that I tend to be myopic but I know I can find deals all over this county. I am in the process of hammering out a deal on a condo in a great school district (poway) for a 1st time buyer. They are very conservative and he is actually a bank examiner. The costs will be cheaper than rent by at least $200/month without factoring in tax benefits. Sounds like a winner winner chicken dinner to me.

[sdrealtor]

Woah jp,
For many prices ranges it is cheaper to buy and for the highest ones it isnt. I did jstoesz buy vs rent calculator inputting exactly what happened. Over the 11 years I have been hear it came up as a $40,000 net positve decision PER YEAR!

I agree that I tend to be myopic but I know I can find deals all over this county. I am in the process of hammering out a deal on a condo in a great school district (poway) for a 1st time buyer. They are very conservative and he is actually a bank examiner. The costs will be cheaper than rent by at least $200/month without factoring in tax benefits. Sounds like a winner winner chicken dinner to me.

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