Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[sdrealtor]

I picked 2004 because that was the peak of the hysterial where people were killing themselves to get into a house. Give me another year and I will look into while I’m on vacation next week. It is hardly a little neighborhood in fact it is one of the largest in NCC and is very representative of this market. I didnt select a price range, I selected a large neighborhood that is very representative of the NCC market and those are all the sales. The range of sales went from 700K to 1.15M which actually is about 3 and maybe 4 separate price ranges. In 2004 that $700K got you a 3BR 1800 sq ft 1 story home built in the late 1990’s. The $1.15M sales were typically 5BR 3500 to 4,000 sq ft. In between is everything you would expect to fall in place between that.

Sorry not everyone financed 100% and took out option ARM’s. You threw out broad statement THAT EVERYONE DID!. Here it is cut and pasted from your post:

“THEY DID WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE DID.”

Thats simply isnt true. My data points PROVE EXACTLY what I intended it to do. You said EVERYONE did and I pulled out a large high profile neighborhood where almost no one did. Case Closed!

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, good examples. But I am skeptical that there are enough people in that situation to affect the broader RE market trends.[/quote]

believe in what you want to believe. Like I said, probably in the submarket that I’m in, it’s probably more like the former than the later. Frankly, seeing HH incomes of 200k+ in the other “Mapping America” thread, I don’t think it’s as doom and gloom as people are making it out to be, especially with these QEx and with the tax cuts that are on tap…

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, good examples. But I am skeptical that there are enough people in that situation to affect the broader RE market trends.[/quote]

believe in what you want to believe. Like I said, probably in the submarket that I’m in, it’s probably more like the former than the later. Frankly, seeing HH incomes of 200k+ in the other “Mapping America” thread, I don’t think it’s as doom and gloom as people are making it out to be, especially with these QEx and with the tax cuts that are on tap…

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, good examples. But I am skeptical that there are enough people in that situation to affect the broader RE market trends.[/quote]

believe in what you want to believe. Like I said, probably in the submarket that I’m in, it’s probably more like the former than the later. Frankly, seeing HH incomes of 200k+ in the other “Mapping America” thread, I don’t think it’s as doom and gloom as people are making it out to be, especially with these QEx and with the tax cuts that are on tap…

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, good examples. But I am skeptical that there are enough people in that situation to affect the broader RE market trends.[/quote]

believe in what you want to believe. Like I said, probably in the submarket that I’m in, it’s probably more like the former than the later. Frankly, seeing HH incomes of 200k+ in the other “Mapping America” thread, I don’t think it’s as doom and gloom as people are making it out to be, especially with these QEx and with the tax cuts that are on tap…

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]FLU, good examples. But I am skeptical that there are enough people in that situation to affect the broader RE market trends.[/quote]

believe in what you want to believe. Like I said, probably in the submarket that I’m in, it’s probably more like the former than the later. Frankly, seeing HH incomes of 200k+ in the other “Mapping America” thread, I don’t think it’s as doom and gloom as people are making it out to be, especially with these QEx and with the tax cuts that are on tap…

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone] . . . why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.[/quote]

I think what sdr was showing here was that in 2004, sold comps in the particular neighborhood he pulled these stats for were from $700K to $1.15M. He didn’t choose the PRICE RANGE, he chose the AREA and that’s what they were. That’s not to say that this is still the price range there of today’s sold comps.

No, sdr’s area is not indicative of the entire county but neither is doing this same exercise with some subdivisions in Otay Ranch (91915) where virtually ALL homeowners are/were very much underwater and there is a high incidence of REOs and shadow inventory. Even those that DID put down substantial downpayments on property there lost all their own contributed “equity” because of all the unqualified “homeowners” who were allowed to buy there whose loans went bad within MONTHS of moving in. Many of these 3.5 to 7 year-old homes are over 3000 sf and built with some luxury amenities. They weren’t “starter homes” and this is NOT Riverside County. These neighborhoods are =<20 miles from dtn San Diego.

The net worth of homeowners VARIES WIDELY from census tract to census tract in SD. I could give a rat's a$$ about "area income" and consider it irrelevant when determining property values.

If you asked 40+ year (free & clear) owners of the same property in Mission Hills if they are "satisfied" with their income, most would probably say they were "content." Whatever "income" they have or are drawing down this year from investments is enough to pay their utilities, Medicare Part B (supp) & D and other expenses and travel occasionally when they need/want to. And yes, there are MANY, MANY of these homeowners in SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone] . . . why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.[/quote]

I think what sdr was showing here was that in 2004, sold comps in the particular neighborhood he pulled these stats for were from $700K to $1.15M. He didn’t choose the PRICE RANGE, he chose the AREA and that’s what they were. That’s not to say that this is still the price range there of today’s sold comps.

No, sdr’s area is not indicative of the entire county but neither is doing this same exercise with some subdivisions in Otay Ranch (91915) where virtually ALL homeowners are/were very much underwater and there is a high incidence of REOs and shadow inventory. Even those that DID put down substantial downpayments on property there lost all their own contributed “equity” because of all the unqualified “homeowners” who were allowed to buy there whose loans went bad within MONTHS of moving in. Many of these 3.5 to 7 year-old homes are over 3000 sf and built with some luxury amenities. They weren’t “starter homes” and this is NOT Riverside County. These neighborhoods are =<20 miles from dtn San Diego.

The net worth of homeowners VARIES WIDELY from census tract to census tract in SD. I could give a rat's a$$ about "area income" and consider it irrelevant when determining property values.

If you asked 40+ year (free & clear) owners of the same property in Mission Hills if they are "satisfied" with their income, most would probably say they were "content." Whatever "income" they have or are drawing down this year from investments is enough to pay their utilities, Medicare Part B (supp) & D and other expenses and travel occasionally when they need/want to. And yes, there are MANY, MANY of these homeowners in SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone] . . . why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.[/quote]

I think what sdr was showing here was that in 2004, sold comps in the particular neighborhood he pulled these stats for were from $700K to $1.15M. He didn’t choose the PRICE RANGE, he chose the AREA and that’s what they were. That’s not to say that this is still the price range there of today’s sold comps.

No, sdr’s area is not indicative of the entire county but neither is doing this same exercise with some subdivisions in Otay Ranch (91915) where virtually ALL homeowners are/were very much underwater and there is a high incidence of REOs and shadow inventory. Even those that DID put down substantial downpayments on property there lost all their own contributed “equity” because of all the unqualified “homeowners” who were allowed to buy there whose loans went bad within MONTHS of moving in. Many of these 3.5 to 7 year-old homes are over 3000 sf and built with some luxury amenities. They weren’t “starter homes” and this is NOT Riverside County. These neighborhoods are =<20 miles from dtn San Diego.

The net worth of homeowners VARIES WIDELY from census tract to census tract in SD. I could give a rat's a$$ about "area income" and consider it irrelevant when determining property values.

If you asked 40+ year (free & clear) owners of the same property in Mission Hills if they are "satisfied" with their income, most would probably say they were "content." Whatever "income" they have or are drawing down this year from investments is enough to pay their utilities, Medicare Part B (supp) & D and other expenses and travel occasionally when they need/want to. And yes, there are MANY, MANY of these homeowners in SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone] . . . why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.[/quote]

I think what sdr was showing here was that in 2004, sold comps in the particular neighborhood he pulled these stats for were from $700K to $1.15M. He didn’t choose the PRICE RANGE, he chose the AREA and that’s what they were. That’s not to say that this is still the price range there of today’s sold comps.

No, sdr’s area is not indicative of the entire county but neither is doing this same exercise with some subdivisions in Otay Ranch (91915) where virtually ALL homeowners are/were very much underwater and there is a high incidence of REOs and shadow inventory. Even those that DID put down substantial downpayments on property there lost all their own contributed “equity” because of all the unqualified “homeowners” who were allowed to buy there whose loans went bad within MONTHS of moving in. Many of these 3.5 to 7 year-old homes are over 3000 sf and built with some luxury amenities. They weren’t “starter homes” and this is NOT Riverside County. These neighborhoods are =<20 miles from dtn San Diego.

The net worth of homeowners VARIES WIDELY from census tract to census tract in SD. I could give a rat's a$$ about "area income" and consider it irrelevant when determining property values.

If you asked 40+ year (free & clear) owners of the same property in Mission Hills if they are "satisfied" with their income, most would probably say they were "content." Whatever "income" they have or are drawing down this year from investments is enough to pay their utilities, Medicare Part B (supp) & D and other expenses and travel occasionally when they need/want to. And yes, there are MANY, MANY of these homeowners in SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=deadzone] . . . why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.[/quote]

I think what sdr was showing here was that in 2004, sold comps in the particular neighborhood he pulled these stats for were from $700K to $1.15M. He didn’t choose the PRICE RANGE, he chose the AREA and that’s what they were. That’s not to say that this is still the price range there of today’s sold comps.

No, sdr’s area is not indicative of the entire county but neither is doing this same exercise with some subdivisions in Otay Ranch (91915) where virtually ALL homeowners are/were very much underwater and there is a high incidence of REOs and shadow inventory. Even those that DID put down substantial downpayments on property there lost all their own contributed “equity” because of all the unqualified “homeowners” who were allowed to buy there whose loans went bad within MONTHS of moving in. Many of these 3.5 to 7 year-old homes are over 3000 sf and built with some luxury amenities. They weren’t “starter homes” and this is NOT Riverside County. These neighborhoods are =<20 miles from dtn San Diego.

The net worth of homeowners VARIES WIDELY from census tract to census tract in SD. I could give a rat's a$$ about "area income" and consider it irrelevant when determining property values.

If you asked 40+ year (free & clear) owners of the same property in Mission Hills if they are "satisfied" with their income, most would probably say they were "content." Whatever "income" they have or are drawing down this year from investments is enough to pay their utilities, Medicare Part B (supp) & D and other expenses and travel occasionally when they need/want to. And yes, there are MANY, MANY of these homeowners in SD County.

[zzz]

BG, agree on what you said about MH. I WANT(ED) to believe more gloom and doom was going to happen in MH and certain other pockets, but it just hasn’t happened and the more I look in those neighborhoods, I just don’t see it happening to truly GREAT homes. There will always be that crappy house in MH that sells way below what it did in 05, but I don’t want to live there anyhow.

I do know lots of folks who are underwater, and if they lost their jobs, they would be screwed, but none of them are in MH. I also know A LOT of couples who have dual incomes, both making 150k+ and only live on one income, banking the rest. Some of them own business or work for themselves and have pretty downturn resistant jobs. A lot of people in MH have tons of equity in their homes either having lived there for 30 years, or a lot of late 30s, 40s bought early and as they moved up, put all the accrued equity into their 1M+ homes. Its not anectdotal, you can look up their loan amounts.

[zzz]

BG, agree on what you said about MH. I WANT(ED) to believe more gloom and doom was going to happen in MH and certain other pockets, but it just hasn’t happened and the more I look in those neighborhoods, I just don’t see it happening to truly GREAT homes. There will always be that crappy house in MH that sells way below what it did in 05, but I don’t want to live there anyhow.

I do know lots of folks who are underwater, and if they lost their jobs, they would be screwed, but none of them are in MH. I also know A LOT of couples who have dual incomes, both making 150k+ and only live on one income, banking the rest. Some of them own business or work for themselves and have pretty downturn resistant jobs. A lot of people in MH have tons of equity in their homes either having lived there for 30 years, or a lot of late 30s, 40s bought early and as they moved up, put all the accrued equity into their 1M+ homes. Its not anectdotal, you can look up their loan amounts.

[zzz]

BG, agree on what you said about MH. I WANT(ED) to believe more gloom and doom was going to happen in MH and certain other pockets, but it just hasn’t happened and the more I look in those neighborhoods, I just don’t see it happening to truly GREAT homes. There will always be that crappy house in MH that sells way below what it did in 05, but I don’t want to live there anyhow.

I do know lots of folks who are underwater, and if they lost their jobs, they would be screwed, but none of them are in MH. I also know A LOT of couples who have dual incomes, both making 150k+ and only live on one income, banking the rest. Some of them own business or work for themselves and have pretty downturn resistant jobs. A lot of people in MH have tons of equity in their homes either having lived there for 30 years, or a lot of late 30s, 40s bought early and as they moved up, put all the accrued equity into their 1M+ homes. Its not anectdotal, you can look up their loan amounts.

[zzz]

BG, agree on what you said about MH. I WANT(ED) to believe more gloom and doom was going to happen in MH and certain other pockets, but it just hasn’t happened and the more I look in those neighborhoods, I just don’t see it happening to truly GREAT homes. There will always be that crappy house in MH that sells way below what it did in 05, but I don’t want to live there anyhow.

I do know lots of folks who are underwater, and if they lost their jobs, they would be screwed, but none of them are in MH. I also know A LOT of couples who have dual incomes, both making 150k+ and only live on one income, banking the rest. Some of them own business or work for themselves and have pretty downturn resistant jobs. A lot of people in MH have tons of equity in their homes either having lived there for 30 years, or a lot of late 30s, 40s bought early and as they moved up, put all the accrued equity into their 1M+ homes. Its not anectdotal, you can look up their loan amounts.

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