Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]bg, you keep missing the point. My co-workers represent the MAJORITY of home buyers during that period. Practially everyone in California was puchasing with no down/option ARM liar loans. That is why the prices got so high.[/quote]

I really need to dispel the nonsense of this post. It is a widely inaccurate broad assumption. Time to bring the DATA!

I went back and looked at all the sales in my neighborhood of more than 1000 homes in NCC for the absolute bubble peak which was 2004. There were 30 closed sales in 2004 ranging from $700K to $1.15M. I went back into the tax records and looked at how they were financed at purchase. Several have since resold and none fo them were short sales or REO’s. I was able to get the data on nearly all of them. Here they are from cheapest to highest:

35% down
no data-house was re sold
20% down
47% down
25% down
20% down
20% down
ZERO DOWN
25% down
25% down
10% down
15% down
20% down
25% down
ALL CASH
20% down
55% down
20% down
20% down
no information available
20% down
10% down
20% down
30% down
10% down
33% down
30% down
40% down
20% down

Bear in mind that most people who put 20% down have plenty more in the bank but do so to get the best terms and maximixe tax write offs. I also know some of the most underwater (based upon purchase price vs current value) people personally and they happen to have huge incomes and assets. While not happy about it, they arent sweating it for a minute.

This is not some DZ hyperbole. THIS IS FACTUAL DATA!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I really need to dispel the nonsense of this post. It is a widely inaccurate broad assumption. Time to bring the DATA!

-snip-

This is not some DZ hyperbole. THIS IS FACTUAL DATA![/quote]

Lol!!

I’m sure if I subscribed to this same service, I might find out that over 50% of homeowners in my census tract don’t have a mortgage, and among those that do, a very large percentage have a remaining balance of under $30K.

edit: Yes, and for the ones that still owe $30K, their PITI of $631 mo may VERY WELL be >=30% of their income!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I really need to dispel the nonsense of this post. It is a widely inaccurate broad assumption. Time to bring the DATA!

-snip-

This is not some DZ hyperbole. THIS IS FACTUAL DATA![/quote]

Lol!!

I’m sure if I subscribed to this same service, I might find out that over 50% of homeowners in my census tract don’t have a mortgage, and among those that do, a very large percentage have a remaining balance of under $30K.

edit: Yes, and for the ones that still owe $30K, their PITI of $631 mo may VERY WELL be >=30% of their income!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I really need to dispel the nonsense of this post. It is a widely inaccurate broad assumption. Time to bring the DATA!

-snip-

This is not some DZ hyperbole. THIS IS FACTUAL DATA![/quote]

Lol!!

I’m sure if I subscribed to this same service, I might find out that over 50% of homeowners in my census tract don’t have a mortgage, and among those that do, a very large percentage have a remaining balance of under $30K.

edit: Yes, and for the ones that still owe $30K, their PITI of $631 mo may VERY WELL be >=30% of their income!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I really need to dispel the nonsense of this post. It is a widely inaccurate broad assumption. Time to bring the DATA!

-snip-

This is not some DZ hyperbole. THIS IS FACTUAL DATA![/quote]

Lol!!

I’m sure if I subscribed to this same service, I might find out that over 50% of homeowners in my census tract don’t have a mortgage, and among those that do, a very large percentage have a remaining balance of under $30K.

edit: Yes, and for the ones that still owe $30K, their PITI of $631 mo may VERY WELL be >=30% of their income!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I really need to dispel the nonsense of this post. It is a widely inaccurate broad assumption. Time to bring the DATA!

-snip-

This is not some DZ hyperbole. THIS IS FACTUAL DATA![/quote]

Lol!!

I’m sure if I subscribed to this same service, I might find out that over 50% of homeowners in my census tract don’t have a mortgage, and among those that do, a very large percentage have a remaining balance of under $30K.

edit: Yes, and for the ones that still owe $30K, their PITI of $631 mo may VERY WELL be >=30% of their income!

[Anonymous]

More cherry picking sdr. For one thing, the peek was Nov 2005 and the bubble years where loans were the worst ranged from 2004-2007. Second, your little neighborhood doesn’t necessarily represent the big picture. We all know you live in a perfect area where all the people are wealthy, highly educated, etc. etc (yawn). Finally, why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.

[Anonymous]

More cherry picking sdr. For one thing, the peek was Nov 2005 and the bubble years where loans were the worst ranged from 2004-2007. Second, your little neighborhood doesn’t necessarily represent the big picture. We all know you live in a perfect area where all the people are wealthy, highly educated, etc. etc (yawn). Finally, why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.

[Anonymous]

More cherry picking sdr. For one thing, the peek was Nov 2005 and the bubble years where loans were the worst ranged from 2004-2007. Second, your little neighborhood doesn’t necessarily represent the big picture. We all know you live in a perfect area where all the people are wealthy, highly educated, etc. etc (yawn). Finally, why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.

[Anonymous]

More cherry picking sdr. For one thing, the peek was Nov 2005 and the bubble years where loans were the worst ranged from 2004-2007. Second, your little neighborhood doesn’t necessarily represent the big picture. We all know you live in a perfect area where all the people are wealthy, highly educated, etc. etc (yawn). Finally, why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.

[Anonymous]

More cherry picking sdr. For one thing, the peek was Nov 2005 and the bubble years where loans were the worst ranged from 2004-2007. Second, your little neighborhood doesn’t necessarily represent the big picture. We all know you live in a perfect area where all the people are wealthy, highly educated, etc. etc (yawn). Finally, why are you only looking at home sales from a specific price range.. Sorry, your data points are far too narrow to prove anything.

[sdrealtor]

I picked 2004 because that was the peak of the hysterial where people were killing themselves to get into a house. Give me another year and I will look into while I’m on vacation next week. It is hardly a little neighborhood in fact it is one of the largest in NCC and is very representative of this market. I didnt select a price range, I selected a large neighborhood that is very representative of the NCC market and those are all the sales. The range of sales went from 700K to 1.15M which actually is about 3 and maybe 4 separate price ranges. In 2004 that $700K got you a 3BR 1800 sq ft 1 story home built in the late 1990’s. The $1.15M sales were typically 5BR 3500 to 4,000 sq ft. In between is everything you would expect to fall in place between that.

Sorry not everyone financed 100% and took out option ARM’s. You threw out broad statement THAT EVERYONE DID!. Here it is cut and pasted from your post:

“THEY DID WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE DID.”

Thats simply isnt true. My data points PROVE EXACTLY what I intended it to do. You said EVERYONE did and I pulled out a large high profile neighborhood where almost no one did. Case Closed!

[sdrealtor]

I picked 2004 because that was the peak of the hysterial where people were killing themselves to get into a house. Give me another year and I will look into while I’m on vacation next week. It is hardly a little neighborhood in fact it is one of the largest in NCC and is very representative of this market. I didnt select a price range, I selected a large neighborhood that is very representative of the NCC market and those are all the sales. The range of sales went from 700K to 1.15M which actually is about 3 and maybe 4 separate price ranges. In 2004 that $700K got you a 3BR 1800 sq ft 1 story home built in the late 1990’s. The $1.15M sales were typically 5BR 3500 to 4,000 sq ft. In between is everything you would expect to fall in place between that.

Sorry not everyone financed 100% and took out option ARM’s. You threw out broad statement THAT EVERYONE DID!. Here it is cut and pasted from your post:

“THEY DID WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE DID.”

Thats simply isnt true. My data points PROVE EXACTLY what I intended it to do. You said EVERYONE did and I pulled out a large high profile neighborhood where almost no one did. Case Closed!

[sdrealtor]

I picked 2004 because that was the peak of the hysterial where people were killing themselves to get into a house. Give me another year and I will look into while I’m on vacation next week. It is hardly a little neighborhood in fact it is one of the largest in NCC and is very representative of this market. I didnt select a price range, I selected a large neighborhood that is very representative of the NCC market and those are all the sales. The range of sales went from 700K to 1.15M which actually is about 3 and maybe 4 separate price ranges. In 2004 that $700K got you a 3BR 1800 sq ft 1 story home built in the late 1990’s. The $1.15M sales were typically 5BR 3500 to 4,000 sq ft. In between is everything you would expect to fall in place between that.

Sorry not everyone financed 100% and took out option ARM’s. You threw out broad statement THAT EVERYONE DID!. Here it is cut and pasted from your post:

“THEY DID WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE DID.”

Thats simply isnt true. My data points PROVE EXACTLY what I intended it to do. You said EVERYONE did and I pulled out a large high profile neighborhood where almost no one did. Case Closed!

[sdrealtor]

I picked 2004 because that was the peak of the hysterial where people were killing themselves to get into a house. Give me another year and I will look into while I’m on vacation next week. It is hardly a little neighborhood in fact it is one of the largest in NCC and is very representative of this market. I didnt select a price range, I selected a large neighborhood that is very representative of the NCC market and those are all the sales. The range of sales went from 700K to 1.15M which actually is about 3 and maybe 4 separate price ranges. In 2004 that $700K got you a 3BR 1800 sq ft 1 story home built in the late 1990’s. The $1.15M sales were typically 5BR 3500 to 4,000 sq ft. In between is everything you would expect to fall in place between that.

Sorry not everyone financed 100% and took out option ARM’s. You threw out broad statement THAT EVERYONE DID!. Here it is cut and pasted from your post:

“THEY DID WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE DID.”

Thats simply isnt true. My data points PROVE EXACTLY what I intended it to do. You said EVERYONE did and I pulled out a large high profile neighborhood where almost no one did. Case Closed!

[Author]

Posts