Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[pemeliza]

Looks like the bond rout is finally on. Not good for real estate, which I own, but I am very happy to see the clowns holding long term treasuries finally taking a few hits for a change.

sdrealtor, as far as your coastal deal that is 150k+ below market, remember that today’s screaming deal is tomorrows comp. I have seen this happen now time and time again. In a market where no buyer wants to pay as much as the last guy, these kind of “killer deals” eventually have a way of bringing down prices. Until the buyer psychology shifts I see this trend continuing. The recent moon launch in interest rates isn’t going to help much with the psychology especially at the mid to high end where buyers are less likely to “panic” and lock in before rates go higher.

[sdrealtor]

Agree that eventually it should have some impact but in this case part of the reason it was such a deal is there really arent many comps. I went back and checked 15 years of comps in the MLS. I only found 5 or 6 homes i would consider comps. The next one like this could be 3 or 4 years away. This one could have sold for alot more if they waited a couple months but they sold at the worst possible time and did so in a hurry.

[sdrealtor]

Agree that eventually it should have some impact but in this case part of the reason it was such a deal is there really arent many comps. I went back and checked 15 years of comps in the MLS. I only found 5 or 6 homes i would consider comps. The next one like this could be 3 or 4 years away. This one could have sold for alot more if they waited a couple months but they sold at the worst possible time and did so in a hurry.

[sdrealtor]

Agree that eventually it should have some impact but in this case part of the reason it was such a deal is there really arent many comps. I went back and checked 15 years of comps in the MLS. I only found 5 or 6 homes i would consider comps. The next one like this could be 3 or 4 years away. This one could have sold for alot more if they waited a couple months but they sold at the worst possible time and did so in a hurry.

[sdrealtor]

Agree that eventually it should have some impact but in this case part of the reason it was such a deal is there really arent many comps. I went back and checked 15 years of comps in the MLS. I only found 5 or 6 homes i would consider comps. The next one like this could be 3 or 4 years away. This one could have sold for alot more if they waited a couple months but they sold at the worst possible time and did so in a hurry.

[sdrealtor]

Agree that eventually it should have some impact but in this case part of the reason it was such a deal is there really arent many comps. I went back and checked 15 years of comps in the MLS. I only found 5 or 6 homes i would consider comps. The next one like this could be 3 or 4 years away. This one could have sold for alot more if they waited a couple months but they sold at the worst possible time and did so in a hurry.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]

Are you serious? If interest rates rise considerably it is not a going to be because of a recovery. It will be because our foreign creditors have lost confidence and refuse to fund any more of our debt. That is already starting to happen, it is being covered up by the Feds purchasing programs.

Even if the economy improved, rising interest rates would still be disastrous. There are so many people out there who still have good jobs but are living on the edge due to their interest only and neg-am loans. I know and work with several people in this category. Just cause the economy improves doesn’t mean their salaries are all of a sudden going to jump. The payment shocks caused by rising interest rates will push many folks over the edge.[/quote]

Yes, I am serious. I acknowledge that there is some likelihood that rates rise for a period with no recovery due to the forces you cite. But, interest rates do not rise in a vaccum. At some point if rates choke off folks and push them over the edge, there is usually a reaction to it. What would be that reaction ? There are many possible outcomes.

I do find it odd that the mention of rising rates in a recovery, a return to the mean in terms of long-term inflation, rates and growth, is met by “are you kidding?”

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]

Are you serious? If interest rates rise considerably it is not a going to be because of a recovery. It will be because our foreign creditors have lost confidence and refuse to fund any more of our debt. That is already starting to happen, it is being covered up by the Feds purchasing programs.

Even if the economy improved, rising interest rates would still be disastrous. There are so many people out there who still have good jobs but are living on the edge due to their interest only and neg-am loans. I know and work with several people in this category. Just cause the economy improves doesn’t mean their salaries are all of a sudden going to jump. The payment shocks caused by rising interest rates will push many folks over the edge.[/quote]

Yes, I am serious. I acknowledge that there is some likelihood that rates rise for a period with no recovery due to the forces you cite. But, interest rates do not rise in a vaccum. At some point if rates choke off folks and push them over the edge, there is usually a reaction to it. What would be that reaction ? There are many possible outcomes.

I do find it odd that the mention of rising rates in a recovery, a return to the mean in terms of long-term inflation, rates and growth, is met by “are you kidding?”

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]

Are you serious? If interest rates rise considerably it is not a going to be because of a recovery. It will be because our foreign creditors have lost confidence and refuse to fund any more of our debt. That is already starting to happen, it is being covered up by the Feds purchasing programs.

Even if the economy improved, rising interest rates would still be disastrous. There are so many people out there who still have good jobs but are living on the edge due to their interest only and neg-am loans. I know and work with several people in this category. Just cause the economy improves doesn’t mean their salaries are all of a sudden going to jump. The payment shocks caused by rising interest rates will push many folks over the edge.[/quote]

Yes, I am serious. I acknowledge that there is some likelihood that rates rise for a period with no recovery due to the forces you cite. But, interest rates do not rise in a vaccum. At some point if rates choke off folks and push them over the edge, there is usually a reaction to it. What would be that reaction ? There are many possible outcomes.

I do find it odd that the mention of rising rates in a recovery, a return to the mean in terms of long-term inflation, rates and growth, is met by “are you kidding?”

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]

Are you serious? If interest rates rise considerably it is not a going to be because of a recovery. It will be because our foreign creditors have lost confidence and refuse to fund any more of our debt. That is already starting to happen, it is being covered up by the Feds purchasing programs.

Even if the economy improved, rising interest rates would still be disastrous. There are so many people out there who still have good jobs but are living on the edge due to their interest only and neg-am loans. I know and work with several people in this category. Just cause the economy improves doesn’t mean their salaries are all of a sudden going to jump. The payment shocks caused by rising interest rates will push many folks over the edge.[/quote]

Yes, I am serious. I acknowledge that there is some likelihood that rates rise for a period with no recovery due to the forces you cite. But, interest rates do not rise in a vaccum. At some point if rates choke off folks and push them over the edge, there is usually a reaction to it. What would be that reaction ? There are many possible outcomes.

I do find it odd that the mention of rising rates in a recovery, a return to the mean in terms of long-term inflation, rates and growth, is met by “are you kidding?”

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=deadzone]

Are you serious? If interest rates rise considerably it is not a going to be because of a recovery. It will be because our foreign creditors have lost confidence and refuse to fund any more of our debt. That is already starting to happen, it is being covered up by the Feds purchasing programs.

Even if the economy improved, rising interest rates would still be disastrous. There are so many people out there who still have good jobs but are living on the edge due to their interest only and neg-am loans. I know and work with several people in this category. Just cause the economy improves doesn’t mean their salaries are all of a sudden going to jump. The payment shocks caused by rising interest rates will push many folks over the edge.[/quote]

Yes, I am serious. I acknowledge that there is some likelihood that rates rise for a period with no recovery due to the forces you cite. But, interest rates do not rise in a vaccum. At some point if rates choke off folks and push them over the edge, there is usually a reaction to it. What would be that reaction ? There are many possible outcomes.

I do find it odd that the mention of rising rates in a recovery, a return to the mean in terms of long-term inflation, rates and growth, is met by “are you kidding?”

[Coronita]

Sorry to say this, but until we see an implosion in the equity markets, I’d say home prices are going to trickle down ever so slowly for awhile….

Locally, QC, brcm, Intuit are all near 52 weeks high right now…and also with open head count..Heck, even former 6 bucks motorola is at it’s 52 week top end…So I think we’re ways away from any type of “implosion” imho. (Don’t shoot the messenger)

[Coronita]

Sorry to say this, but until we see an implosion in the equity markets, I’d say home prices are going to trickle down ever so slowly for awhile….

Locally, QC, brcm, Intuit are all near 52 weeks high right now…and also with open head count..Heck, even former 6 bucks motorola is at it’s 52 week top end…So I think we’re ways away from any type of “implosion” imho. (Don’t shoot the messenger)

[Coronita]

Sorry to say this, but until we see an implosion in the equity markets, I’d say home prices are going to trickle down ever so slowly for awhile….

Locally, QC, brcm, Intuit are all near 52 weeks high right now…and also with open head count..Heck, even former 6 bucks motorola is at it’s 52 week top end…So I think we’re ways away from any type of “implosion” imho. (Don’t shoot the messenger)

[Coronita]

Sorry to say this, but until we see an implosion in the equity markets, I’d say home prices are going to trickle down ever so slowly for awhile….

Locally, QC, brcm, Intuit are all near 52 weeks high right now…and also with open head count..Heck, even former 6 bucks motorola is at it’s 52 week top end…So I think we’re ways away from any type of “implosion” imho. (Don’t shoot the messenger)

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