housing recovery rate

[SDEngineer]

As Rich’s investment site notes (in “US Not Going Down Japan’s Road” on the right hand column at the top), it’s not likely we’re in for a Japanese scenario. This will be a different kettle of fish here – the Japanese chose not to inflate their way out of their mess. We, on the other hand, are clearly choosing to inflate our way out of ours.

Regardless, over the long run (>40 year timeframe), housing has appreciated at no more that the rate of wage inflation (historically, about 3.5% per year averaged over the long term). 5% is indeed optimistic, but possible as we’re probably headed for a period of serious inflation, which will eventually (although not at the start, when inflation will primarily strike commodities, thus increasing cost of living) have the likely effect of inflating wages as well.

[peterb]

The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. Didnt work. But they also had strong employment because the US and the world was buying their production. That’s all over now. Look for the Yen to be going down for a while as the globe contracts. We now have high unemployment and deflating asset prices. This is called a depression by most people. The word’s getting used a lot more now than just 3 months ago. Any asset that takes a lot debt to buy it, will be headed down in price for a while yet.

[peterb]

The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. Didnt work. But they also had strong employment because the US and the world was buying their production. That’s all over now. Look for the Yen to be going down for a while as the globe contracts. We now have high unemployment and deflating asset prices. This is called a depression by most people. The word’s getting used a lot more now than just 3 months ago. Any asset that takes a lot debt to buy it, will be headed down in price for a while yet.

[peterb]

The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. Didnt work. But they also had strong employment because the US and the world was buying their production. That’s all over now. Look for the Yen to be going down for a while as the globe contracts. We now have high unemployment and deflating asset prices. This is called a depression by most people. The word’s getting used a lot more now than just 3 months ago. Any asset that takes a lot debt to buy it, will be headed down in price for a while yet.

[peterb]

The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. Didnt work. But they also had strong employment because the US and the world was buying their production. That’s all over now. Look for the Yen to be going down for a while as the globe contracts. We now have high unemployment and deflating asset prices. This is called a depression by most people. The word’s getting used a lot more now than just 3 months ago. Any asset that takes a lot debt to buy it, will be headed down in price for a while yet.

[peterb]

The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. Didnt work. But they also had strong employment because the US and the world was buying their production. That’s all over now. Look for the Yen to be going down for a while as the globe contracts. We now have high unemployment and deflating asset prices. This is called a depression by most people. The word’s getting used a lot more now than just 3 months ago. Any asset that takes a lot debt to buy it, will be headed down in price for a while yet.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. [/quote]

No, they didn’t.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. [/quote]

No, they didn’t.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. [/quote]

No, they didn’t.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. [/quote]

No, they didn’t.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]The Japanese tried very hard to reinflate their market. [/quote]

No, they didn’t.

[carlsbadworker]

Why do you still remember what you paid for? Forget it! Inflation-adjusted price will not come back to your purchase price for a long long time…maybe 30-50 years from now we will have another housing bubble, but no way in near-term.

What you need to look at right now is how much you are underwater, and if you bail, what the rent payment is going to be? And how much do you value keeping a payment promise that you made 3 years ago?

Forget about the past, look at your current and future situation.

[carlsbadworker]

Why do you still remember what you paid for? Forget it! Inflation-adjusted price will not come back to your purchase price for a long long time…maybe 30-50 years from now we will have another housing bubble, but no way in near-term.

What you need to look at right now is how much you are underwater, and if you bail, what the rent payment is going to be? And how much do you value keeping a payment promise that you made 3 years ago?

Forget about the past, look at your current and future situation.

[carlsbadworker]

Why do you still remember what you paid for? Forget it! Inflation-adjusted price will not come back to your purchase price for a long long time…maybe 30-50 years from now we will have another housing bubble, but no way in near-term.

What you need to look at right now is how much you are underwater, and if you bail, what the rent payment is going to be? And how much do you value keeping a payment promise that you made 3 years ago?

Forget about the past, look at your current and future situation.

[carlsbadworker]

Why do you still remember what you paid for? Forget it! Inflation-adjusted price will not come back to your purchase price for a long long time…maybe 30-50 years from now we will have another housing bubble, but no way in near-term.

What you need to look at right now is how much you are underwater, and if you bail, what the rent payment is going to be? And how much do you value keeping a payment promise that you made 3 years ago?

Forget about the past, look at your current and future situation.

[Author]

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