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HLS.
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August 24, 2007 at 8:56 AM #80330August 24, 2007 at 8:57 AM #80486
Bugs
ParticipantUmm, ~30% of the pending sales in Oceanside are some form of distressed sale. Same for several communities in SD County. That number will rise significantly over the next few months.
Regardless whether there are 9.5 months of inventory on the market or only 9.3 months, it is the number of motivated sellers who will drive the market and close the sales. The others are just excess sitting on the sidelines.
When the number of listings gets down to where it only represents 4 or 5 months worth of sales, then prices will start to reverse. They basically can’t reverse before then.
August 24, 2007 at 8:57 AM #80464ParticipantUmm, ~30% of the pending sales in Oceanside are some form of distressed sale. Same for several communities in SD County. That number will rise significantly over the next few months.
Regardless whether there are 9.5 months of inventory on the market or only 9.3 months, it is the number of motivated sellers who will drive the market and close the sales. The others are just excess sitting on the sidelines.
When the number of listings gets down to where it only represents 4 or 5 months worth of sales, then prices will start to reverse. They basically can’t reverse before then.
August 24, 2007 at 8:57 AM #80333ParticipantUmm, ~30% of the pending sales in Oceanside are some form of distressed sale. Same for several communities in SD County. That number will rise significantly over the next few months.
Regardless whether there are 9.5 months of inventory on the market or only 9.3 months, it is the number of motivated sellers who will drive the market and close the sales. The others are just excess sitting on the sidelines.
When the number of listings gets down to where it only represents 4 or 5 months worth of sales, then prices will start to reverse. They basically can’t reverse before then.
August 24, 2007 at 9:02 AM #80467one_muggle
Participanttemeculaguy,
Things are changing so fast that the rear view mirror isn’t much help.
You are sooo wrong. The rearview will be used quite often to recall what green grass looked like.
“When I was a kid, Realtor’s could sell houses in just a few days”
“Papa can I ask you a question?”
“Yes Johnny?“Papa, what is a realtor?”
-one muggle
August 24, 2007 at 9:02 AM #80336Participanttemeculaguy,
Things are changing so fast that the rear view mirror isn’t much help.
You are sooo wrong. The rearview will be used quite often to recall what green grass looked like.
“When I was a kid, Realtor’s could sell houses in just a few days”
“Papa can I ask you a question?”
“Yes Johnny?“Papa, what is a realtor?”
-one muggle
August 24, 2007 at 9:02 AM #80489Participanttemeculaguy,
Things are changing so fast that the rear view mirror isn’t much help.
You are sooo wrong. The rearview will be used quite often to recall what green grass looked like.
“When I was a kid, Realtor’s could sell houses in just a few days”
“Papa can I ask you a question?”
“Yes Johnny?“Papa, what is a realtor?”
-one muggle
August 24, 2007 at 9:18 AM #80476sdduuuude
ParticipantScizo,
First of all, you should look at months of inventory rather than raw inventory numbers. Months of inventory considers the inventory relative to sales.
Also, I sugget you read this, to make you less scizo and more patient:
As Prof Piggington has said many-a-time, it isn’t the absolute inventory that really matters, but the portion of inventory that must sell.
August 24, 2007 at 9:18 AM #80345ParticipantScizo,
First of all, you should look at months of inventory rather than raw inventory numbers. Months of inventory considers the inventory relative to sales.
Also, I sugget you read this, to make you less scizo and more patient:
As Prof Piggington has said many-a-time, it isn’t the absolute inventory that really matters, but the portion of inventory that must sell.
August 24, 2007 at 9:18 AM #80498ParticipantScizo,
First of all, you should look at months of inventory rather than raw inventory numbers. Months of inventory considers the inventory relative to sales.
Also, I sugget you read this, to make you less scizo and more patient:
As Prof Piggington has said many-a-time, it isn’t the absolute inventory that really matters, but the portion of inventory that must sell.
August 24, 2007 at 9:32 AM #80516kaycee
ParticipantActually, I liked this headline:
New-Home Sales Rose in July, But Outlook Remains Grim
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20424095
Mark Zandi, who I think is pretty fair and balanced, though he leans bullish says:
“This is July, before the freezing of the market,” Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com said on CNBC. “So I’m sure we’re going to see much weaker numbers for August, September and October. The housing market is going to go down a whole other level in the next few months.”
Still, Zandi said the market is nearing a bottom.
“In terms of sales, I think the bottom is going to be the end of this year,” he said. “In terms of contruction, I don’t think there’ll be a bottom ’til the beginning of 2008. And in terms of prices, I think it won’t be until the end of ’08. And that’s nationally. Of course, in California and Florida–the markets that are in disarray–the bottom is well into 2009.”
So, in general, I would say, NO , it isn’t time to buy yet. In So California; NO! It isn’t anywhere near time to buy yet.
August 24, 2007 at 9:32 AM #80363ParticipantActually, I liked this headline:
New-Home Sales Rose in July, But Outlook Remains Grim
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20424095
Mark Zandi, who I think is pretty fair and balanced, though he leans bullish says:
“This is July, before the freezing of the market,” Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com said on CNBC. “So I’m sure we’re going to see much weaker numbers for August, September and October. The housing market is going to go down a whole other level in the next few months.”
Still, Zandi said the market is nearing a bottom.
“In terms of sales, I think the bottom is going to be the end of this year,” he said. “In terms of contruction, I don’t think there’ll be a bottom ’til the beginning of 2008. And in terms of prices, I think it won’t be until the end of ’08. And that’s nationally. Of course, in California and Florida–the markets that are in disarray–the bottom is well into 2009.”
So, in general, I would say, NO , it isn’t time to buy yet. In So California; NO! It isn’t anywhere near time to buy yet.
August 24, 2007 at 9:32 AM #80494ParticipantActually, I liked this headline:
New-Home Sales Rose in July, But Outlook Remains Grim
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20424095
Mark Zandi, who I think is pretty fair and balanced, though he leans bullish says:
“This is July, before the freezing of the market,” Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com said on CNBC. “So I’m sure we’re going to see much weaker numbers for August, September and October. The housing market is going to go down a whole other level in the next few months.”
Still, Zandi said the market is nearing a bottom.
“In terms of sales, I think the bottom is going to be the end of this year,” he said. “In terms of contruction, I don’t think there’ll be a bottom ’til the beginning of 2008. And in terms of prices, I think it won’t be until the end of ’08. And that’s nationally. Of course, in California and Florida–the markets that are in disarray–the bottom is well into 2009.”
So, in general, I would say, NO , it isn’t time to buy yet. In So California; NO! It isn’t anywhere near time to buy yet.
August 24, 2007 at 9:40 AM #80528temeculaguy
ParticipantGood one Muggle, that was funny!
August 24, 2007 at 9:40 AM #80376ParticipantGood one Muggle, that was funny!
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