Home sales continue plunge

[sdrealtor]

Dz
Love the football analogy but I look at it differently. Its a 16 game season and halfway through I am 8-0. Pretty much guaranteed a wild card slot. If I win a couple more I’m a #1 seed. If I continue on my current pace I’m in Canton.

You on the other hand are 4-4 and figuring out whether to play out the string or pack it in a go for a top 3 pick.

You have never heard me say we are done with the declines. From day 1, I called for 30% declines in NCC and a bottom in 2011 to 2012. Its looking like my biggest decision will be whether I want to go in as an Eagle or a Charger;)

sdr

[CA renter]

[quote=Huckleberry][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote][/quote]

He was being sarcastic and making fun of people like me. I’m not offended, because we go back and forth about this stuff in a fun way; sdr and I have a bet that will pay off in 2012, which I’m very much looking forward to winning. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=Huckleberry][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote][/quote]

He was being sarcastic and making fun of people like me. I’m not offended, because we go back and forth about this stuff in a fun way; sdr and I have a bet that will pay off in 2012, which I’m very much looking forward to winning. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=Huckleberry][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote][/quote]

He was being sarcastic and making fun of people like me. I’m not offended, because we go back and forth about this stuff in a fun way; sdr and I have a bet that will pay off in 2012, which I’m very much looking forward to winning. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=Huckleberry][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote][/quote]

He was being sarcastic and making fun of people like me. I’m not offended, because we go back and forth about this stuff in a fun way; sdr and I have a bet that will pay off in 2012, which I’m very much looking forward to winning. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=Huckleberry][quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote][/quote]

He was being sarcastic and making fun of people like me. I’m not offended, because we go back and forth about this stuff in a fun way; sdr and I have a bet that will pay off in 2012, which I’m very much looking forward to winning. 😉

[Anonymous]

sdr,

I’d say we are both 6-2 at this point. Or maybe I’ll give you 7-1. However, based on your comments that we are at/near bottom you’re team is starting to coast and is on the verge of pulling a Denver Broncos of recent years and folding in the second half so badly you’ll miss the playoffs entirely.

My bottom call from way back when was 40% drop in SD coastal by 2012. So far in the areas I watch (La Jolla, PB, Pt Loma, etc) only seeing approx 15-20% so far. Not sure if we’ll make 40% by 2012 but still expect the drop to happen.

[Anonymous]

sdr,

I’d say we are both 6-2 at this point. Or maybe I’ll give you 7-1. However, based on your comments that we are at/near bottom you’re team is starting to coast and is on the verge of pulling a Denver Broncos of recent years and folding in the second half so badly you’ll miss the playoffs entirely.

My bottom call from way back when was 40% drop in SD coastal by 2012. So far in the areas I watch (La Jolla, PB, Pt Loma, etc) only seeing approx 15-20% so far. Not sure if we’ll make 40% by 2012 but still expect the drop to happen.

[Anonymous]

sdr,

I’d say we are both 6-2 at this point. Or maybe I’ll give you 7-1. However, based on your comments that we are at/near bottom you’re team is starting to coast and is on the verge of pulling a Denver Broncos of recent years and folding in the second half so badly you’ll miss the playoffs entirely.

My bottom call from way back when was 40% drop in SD coastal by 2012. So far in the areas I watch (La Jolla, PB, Pt Loma, etc) only seeing approx 15-20% so far. Not sure if we’ll make 40% by 2012 but still expect the drop to happen.

[Anonymous]

sdr,

I’d say we are both 6-2 at this point. Or maybe I’ll give you 7-1. However, based on your comments that we are at/near bottom you’re team is starting to coast and is on the verge of pulling a Denver Broncos of recent years and folding in the second half so badly you’ll miss the playoffs entirely.

My bottom call from way back when was 40% drop in SD coastal by 2012. So far in the areas I watch (La Jolla, PB, Pt Loma, etc) only seeing approx 15-20% so far. Not sure if we’ll make 40% by 2012 but still expect the drop to happen.

[Anonymous]

sdr,

I’d say we are both 6-2 at this point. Or maybe I’ll give you 7-1. However, based on your comments that we are at/near bottom you’re team is starting to coast and is on the verge of pulling a Denver Broncos of recent years and folding in the second half so badly you’ll miss the playoffs entirely.

My bottom call from way back when was 40% drop in SD coastal by 2012. So far in the areas I watch (La Jolla, PB, Pt Loma, etc) only seeing approx 15-20% so far. Not sure if we’ll make 40% by 2012 but still expect the drop to happen.

[briansd1]

Ok, seems like we’re all in agreement. 2012 it is. 😉 (for San Diego).

[briansd1]

Ok, seems like we’re all in agreement. 2012 it is. 😉 (for San Diego).

[briansd1]

Ok, seems like we’re all in agreement. 2012 it is. 😉 (for San Diego).

[briansd1]

Ok, seems like we’re all in agreement. 2012 it is. 😉 (for San Diego).

[Author]

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