Home sales continue plunge

[CA renter]

[quote=UCGal]
People who bought pre-bubble are less likely to look at peak pricing as the “goal”.[/quote]

Totally agree, UCGal, and this is the point I keep trying to make when folks claim that “sellers won’t sell until housing prices are back at 2005 levels.” That’s a total load of hogwash!

Lots of people didn’t cash-out/HELOC during the runup. A lot of people own their houses outright with a $40K cost basis. They couldn’t care less what houses were worth in 2005, because many of the old-timers knew it wasn’t real (I’ve talked to many long-time owners who didn’t think 2005 prices were real/sustainable, but they had no reason to sell their homes, as they were paid off or had very small mortgages and low tax rates). If they spent $40K on a house in 1972 and it’s now worth $600K, they will gladly take the money if they need/want to sell, even if it was “worth” $1MM when all the fraudulent loans were swamping the market.

This is a just as much of a “threat” to high prices as REOs, IMHO. While the govt can control what the banks do (much to my chagrin), they cannot control what legitimate owners do when they want to sell their homes.

It’s only bubble-buyers (and HELOC’ers) who think the world revolves around 2005 housing prices. They don’t like to acknowledge that the rest of the population isn’t as indebted as they are, and aren’t as dependent on housing prices going back up to 2005 “wishing price” levels.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.

[Huckleberry]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote]

[Huckleberry]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote]

[Huckleberry]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote]

[Huckleberry]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote]

[Huckleberry]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Funny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.

It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.[/quote]

Lots of housing bulls back in 2005-2007 were patting themselves on the back for being “right” too. Just because we’re early does NOT mean that we “perma-bears” are wrong.

I, for one, never said it was going to be a quick downturn. Back in 2004, I was predicting the downturn wouldn’t really get going until 3-5 years from that point, and I’ve always said, from the very beginning, that the market wouldn’t bottom until 2012, and that it would bottom even later if the govt got involved with all manner of bailouts. I even predicted the severity of the downturn and that the govt would get involved and have a govt-backed mortgage program and tax credits for buying — and have the posts to prove this. Almost all of my predictions have turned out correctly as well, BTW, and I’m predicting that this is nowhere near over.[/quote]

srd seems to agree with you, as he recently stated:

[quote=sdrealtor]Look at all that shadow inventory, vacant homes are everywhere, the tsunami is coming, rates are about to soar, inventory is skyrocketing, unemployment i sdhigh and getting worse, the public sector is about to take a major hit, the stock market is tanking, home sales are down, deflation is on the way….get ready for the next leg down.[/quote]

[sdrealtor]

Dz
Love the football analogy but I look at it differently. Its a 16 game season and halfway through I am 8-0. Pretty much guaranteed a wild card slot. If I win a couple more I’m a #1 seed. If I continue on my current pace I’m in Canton.

You on the other hand are 4-4 and figuring out whether to play out the string or pack it in a go for a top 3 pick.

You have never heard me say we are done with the declines. From day 1, I called for 30% declines in NCC and a bottom in 2011 to 2012. Its looking like my biggest decision will be whether I want to go in as an Eagle or a Charger;)

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Dz
Love the football analogy but I look at it differently. Its a 16 game season and halfway through I am 8-0. Pretty much guaranteed a wild card slot. If I win a couple more I’m a #1 seed. If I continue on my current pace I’m in Canton.

You on the other hand are 4-4 and figuring out whether to play out the string or pack it in a go for a top 3 pick.

You have never heard me say we are done with the declines. From day 1, I called for 30% declines in NCC and a bottom in 2011 to 2012. Its looking like my biggest decision will be whether I want to go in as an Eagle or a Charger;)

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Dz
Love the football analogy but I look at it differently. Its a 16 game season and halfway through I am 8-0. Pretty much guaranteed a wild card slot. If I win a couple more I’m a #1 seed. If I continue on my current pace I’m in Canton.

You on the other hand are 4-4 and figuring out whether to play out the string or pack it in a go for a top 3 pick.

You have never heard me say we are done with the declines. From day 1, I called for 30% declines in NCC and a bottom in 2011 to 2012. Its looking like my biggest decision will be whether I want to go in as an Eagle or a Charger;)

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Dz
Love the football analogy but I look at it differently. Its a 16 game season and halfway through I am 8-0. Pretty much guaranteed a wild card slot. If I win a couple more I’m a #1 seed. If I continue on my current pace I’m in Canton.

You on the other hand are 4-4 and figuring out whether to play out the string or pack it in a go for a top 3 pick.

You have never heard me say we are done with the declines. From day 1, I called for 30% declines in NCC and a bottom in 2011 to 2012. Its looking like my biggest decision will be whether I want to go in as an Eagle or a Charger;)

sdr

[Author]

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