Help from Realtors: what’s my friend’s house worth now?

[admin]

Greetings Realtors who have access to MLS sales data,

we are curious what this property is worth now.

Our good friends paid 890k back in middle of 2006. My calculator says that’s $335/sq ft. What are homes on the 39xx block of Del Mar Glen going for now?

Parcel Number: 307 142 10 00
Property Location: 03935 DEL MAR GLEN
Purchase Price: $889,000
Living Area: 2,649
No. Bedrooms: 4
No. Bathrooms: 3
Document Date: 6/28/2005

[DCRogers]

Good news! Zillow says the home is worth $992,665! CHA-CHING!

[DCRogers]

Good news! Zillow says the home is worth $992,665! CHA-CHING!

[sdrealtor]

While no one knows for sure until they actually try my guess is that it’s worth about what they paid for it maybe a little more. According to the listing the house has 5 bedrooms. If it does, I cant imagine a 5BR home selling in that area below 900k.

[sdrealtor]

While no one knows for sure until they actually try my guess is that it’s worth about what they paid for it maybe a little more. According to the listing the house has 5 bedrooms. If it does, I cant imagine a 5BR home selling in that area below 900k.

[sdrealtor]

No enough data points to calculate anything meaningful. If you were looking for data to support they made a bad decision, that data isnt out there yet. Same goes for the opposite.

[sdrealtor]

No enough data points to calculate anything meaningful. If you were looking for data to support they made a bad decision, that data isnt out there yet. Same goes for the opposite.

[SD Realtor]

Tough to say Vrud –

There has not been any MLS activity on Del Mar Glen since your friends purchase. I did a wider search on the mapcode they live in which is 1188A7.

The most recent data point is 12330 Del Mar Oaks but that home is smaller. It is a 3/2.5 2189 sq ft, and it listed for 123 days. The listing expired last week and was 820-845 at expiration. The agent relisted again and it is active on the MLS at 819k.

Last year 8/2006 a 5/3 bath model 2649 sq ft on 3985 Cypress Del Mar listed and was on the MLS for 157 days. That listing was cancelled on 2/7/07 and when they cancelled they were at 800-835k. That home then sold on 3/9/07 for 795k.

There are 3 other data points but they are all brand new homes built in 2006 on Carmel Park Dr. To be honest I do not think they are accurate to comp against your friends home.

I would have to do some more research to give a definitive opinion but by the looks of it, unless there are some very eye catching upgrades or something that really sets this home apart from others, it will be challenging for your friends to get what they paid for it. Just my opinion and just trying to be honest.

SD Realtor

vrud – I will look at more comps tomorrow to see if I can find more encouraging news.

[SD Realtor]

Tough to say Vrud –

There has not been any MLS activity on Del Mar Glen since your friends purchase. I did a wider search on the mapcode they live in which is 1188A7.

The most recent data point is 12330 Del Mar Oaks but that home is smaller. It is a 3/2.5 2189 sq ft, and it listed for 123 days. The listing expired last week and was 820-845 at expiration. The agent relisted again and it is active on the MLS at 819k.

Last year 8/2006 a 5/3 bath model 2649 sq ft on 3985 Cypress Del Mar listed and was on the MLS for 157 days. That listing was cancelled on 2/7/07 and when they cancelled they were at 800-835k. That home then sold on 3/9/07 for 795k.

There are 3 other data points but they are all brand new homes built in 2006 on Carmel Park Dr. To be honest I do not think they are accurate to comp against your friends home.

I would have to do some more research to give a definitive opinion but by the looks of it, unless there are some very eye catching upgrades or something that really sets this home apart from others, it will be challenging for your friends to get what they paid for it. Just my opinion and just trying to be honest.

SD Realtor

vrud – I will look at more comps tomorrow to see if I can find more encouraging news.

[sdrealtor]

I disagree. In that part of CV there isnt anything on the market today with at least 4BR/3BA and 2400 sq ft under $950,000.

There is a 4BR/3BA/2 car gar 2438 sf home with 1200 in Mello Roos in escrow with a range of 850 to 875 that sold in 4 days. My guess is they got 875K.

There is a 5BR/3ba/3 car gar 2828 sq ft in escrow with a range of 899 to 999 that backed to a pretty busy street (Which is a KILLER!) and sold in 94 days.

There is a 5BR/3.5ba/3 car gar 3109 sf in escrow with a range of 950 to 1.05M after only 11 days. My guess would be $1M plus.

All these homes are at least 15 years old, in nice condition but minimal or no upgrades and small lots.

There is very solid demand and very little supply of homes like your friends in this marketplace today. With 5BR/3BA/3 car 2600+ sf and no Mello roos there house would sell for at least what they paid in my informed opinion.

[sdrealtor]

I disagree. In that part of CV there isnt anything on the market today with at least 4BR/3BA and 2400 sq ft under $950,000.

There is a 4BR/3BA/2 car gar 2438 sf home with 1200 in Mello Roos in escrow with a range of 850 to 875 that sold in 4 days. My guess is they got 875K.

There is a 5BR/3ba/3 car gar 2828 sq ft in escrow with a range of 899 to 999 that backed to a pretty busy street (Which is a KILLER!) and sold in 94 days.

There is a 5BR/3.5ba/3 car gar 3109 sf in escrow with a range of 950 to 1.05M after only 11 days. My guess would be $1M plus.

All these homes are at least 15 years old, in nice condition but minimal or no upgrades and small lots.

There is very solid demand and very little supply of homes like your friends in this marketplace today. With 5BR/3BA/3 car 2600+ sf and no Mello roos there house would sell for at least what they paid in my informed opinion.

[Bugs]

As an appraiser the sales I would be looking at would include:

– Montefrio Ct (2,533 4/3 w/pool @ $850,000 in late 12/2006
– Montefrio Ct (2,207 4/3 @ $820,000 in 02/2007;
– Cypress Del Mar (2649 5/3 @ $795,000 in 03/2007;

The oldest sale at the top is probably a better house all the way around – that pool might be worth about $20k, maybe more. The second house on the same street appears to be in similar condition to the first so it demonstrates the difference in living area. The 3rd sale at the bottom is a little more recent but is also apparently in inferior condition.

Because these sales are all a little more dated than I’d like to see I’d probably want to expand my search to include other nearby competing neighborhoods consisting of 1980s homes on small lots in subdivisions featuring homes no larger than 3,000 SqFt. I’d completely avoid the Cantamar project nearby – those homes are a lot bigger and nicer.

To the north of Del Mar Heights Rd, Landfair has some recent sales in the $850k – $910k ranges, but in looking back in time it appears that neighborhood has always sold for about 5% more that the homes in your friend’s neighborhood. I don’t see any differences in pricing there from late last year until now, but the data is kinda skimpy.

I don’t know what this property is worth but I have a pretty good idea of what it isn’t worth.

[Bugs]

As an appraiser the sales I would be looking at would include:

– Montefrio Ct (2,533 4/3 w/pool @ $850,000 in late 12/2006
– Montefrio Ct (2,207 4/3 @ $820,000 in 02/2007;
– Cypress Del Mar (2649 5/3 @ $795,000 in 03/2007;

The oldest sale at the top is probably a better house all the way around – that pool might be worth about $20k, maybe more. The second house on the same street appears to be in similar condition to the first so it demonstrates the difference in living area. The 3rd sale at the bottom is a little more recent but is also apparently in inferior condition.

Because these sales are all a little more dated than I’d like to see I’d probably want to expand my search to include other nearby competing neighborhoods consisting of 1980s homes on small lots in subdivisions featuring homes no larger than 3,000 SqFt. I’d completely avoid the Cantamar project nearby – those homes are a lot bigger and nicer.

To the north of Del Mar Heights Rd, Landfair has some recent sales in the $850k – $910k ranges, but in looking back in time it appears that neighborhood has always sold for about 5% more that the homes in your friend’s neighborhood. I don’t see any differences in pricing there from late last year until now, but the data is kinda skimpy.

I don’t know what this property is worth but I have a pretty good idea of what it isn’t worth.

[sdrealtor]

Therein lies the difference between appraised value which looks backward and market value which looks at current market conditions. When those homes sold there were about 4 active listings for every pending in 92130 and today there are less than 3. The Montefrio homes are also a chipshot away from the 56 (noisy) and all the sales are way too old for me to consider in market value. I am very surprised and disappointed that Bugs included a comp more than 6 months old which is a definite no no in the appraisal world. I’ve yet to meet an appraiser that would consider using one in making a case for value. Sounds like some confirmation bias to me.

[sdrealtor]

Therein lies the difference between appraised value which looks backward and market value which looks at current market conditions. When those homes sold there were about 4 active listings for every pending in 92130 and today there are less than 3. The Montefrio homes are also a chipshot away from the 56 (noisy) and all the sales are way too old for me to consider in market value. I am very surprised and disappointed that Bugs included a comp more than 6 months old which is a definite no no in the appraisal world. I’ve yet to meet an appraiser that would consider using one in making a case for value. Sounds like some confirmation bias to me.

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