Have you checked your 401K lately?

[moneymaker]

Interesting chart of DJIA http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/djia-vs-djia-up-down-params-6m-x-x-x/

[edna_mode]

I’m curious — why does the DJIA still hold so much sway as a valid metric anymore? It’s 30 stocks; how is such a small sample representative of a country/sector/economic/company/policy/regulatory environment in such a way that you can make decent predictions about anything?

[raty4R]

@Moneymaker your charts tell me it’s time to sell my mutual funds, yikes. DOW is hitting record highs at a clip of 1/2% at a time woohoo. So not much gain overall. Was at around 16000 in Jan. and just a little over that now.

[UCGal]

[quote=edna_mode]I’m curious — why does the DJIA still hold so much sway as a valid metric anymore? It’s 30 stocks; how is such a small sample representative of a country/sector/economic/company/policy/regulatory environment in such a way that you can make decent predictions about anything?[/quote]

I agree – the S&P is a broader index of large cap stocks (by definition.) And therefore more relevant as a metric.

(Looks like we have to wait a bit longer for S&P = 2000. )

[moneymaker]

Ok fine, I will get back in when the S&P reaches down to 1800.

[CA renter]

Just came across this and thought it was interesting. Has anyone else heard about it?

———-

“Here’s a guy you want to bet on– Li Ka-Shing.

Li is reportedly the richest person in Asia with a net worth well in excess of $30 billion, much of which he made being a shrewd property investor.

Li Ka-Shing was investing in mainland China back in the early 90s, way back before it became the trendy thing to do. Now, Li wants out of China. All of it.

Since August of last year, he’s dumped billions of dollars worth of his Chinese holdings. The latest is the $928 million sale of the Pacific Place shopping center in Beijing– this deal was inked just days ago.

Once the deal concludes, Li will no longer have any major property investments in mainland China.”

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-richest-man-in-asia-is-selling-everything-in-china-14208/

[carlsbadworker]

Anyone with half a brain should consider mainland China real-estate over-priced. However, most of the people in China seem to still think it is their sure road to the riches.

[jeff303]

[quote=edna_mode]I’m curious — why does the DJIA still hold so much sway as a valid metric anymore? It’s 30 stocks; how is such a small sample representative of a country/sector/economic/company/policy/regulatory environment in such a way that you can make decent predictions about anything?[/quote]

Inertia, basically. There’s a great Planet Money podcast covering all its shortfalls: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/03/12/174139347/episode-443-dont-believe-the-hype

[phaster]

[quote=moneymaker]Pleasantly surprised to see that I have averaged 10.7% over the last 5 years. Not bad! Especially considering what interest rates have been like over the last 5 years.[/quote]

Think a better “investment barometer” would be a 10 year period, because it capture how an investor positioned their portfolio prior to the bubble as well as how they rode out the “crash”

the basic math equation is

p = p(0) e^(it)

where:

p = portfolio value “present”
p(0) = portfolio value “initial”
e = 2.718281828459
i = interest rate (solve for this value)
t = time “period”

[bobby]

[quote=carlsbadworker]Anyone with half a brain should consider mainland China real-estate over-priced. However, most of the people in China seem to still think it is their sure road to the riches.[/quote]

10 years ago, most people in US “seem to still think it is their sure road to the riches.”
I guess it’s herd mentality

[ltsddd]

the bloodbath continues…

[UCGal]

The market is still on a roller coaster… no doubt. But it’s also still UP ytd by 5.99%. I’ll take that.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/index/IndexCharts.aspx?Symbol=SPX

[The-Shoveler]

The IMF was meeting yesterday, they said something to the effect that the slow growth of the world economy over the last few years is not acceptable and will strand too many on unemployment rolls.

I would expect extraordinary measures are still the order of the day.

[spdrun]

the bloodbath continues…

Meh. Not that bad today by comparison. Dow is actually up a bit.

[svelte]

If you have no appetite for rollercoasters, you should park your money on the side during October.

It is a notoriously volatile month.

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