Have some areas in San Diego county hit bottom?

[little lady]

“You’ll know we’re near the bottom when you **don’t** see multiple families looking at an over-priced 1970s tract shack that’s “on sale” for $450K.”

We don’t…….even the great ones @ that price…..

Houses that are selling round here are sub 400k…..that is why I am thinking maybe SANTEE and others like it ARE bottoming out……….

BUT I AM WRONG……..right?

[DWCAP]

Little lady,

It is starting to seem to me that you dont want to hear the answer that will be given here. You keep asking the same question, ignoring the answers given, and then keep asking to be proven wrong. If you dont want to hear the answer, dont ask. If you have become emotionally involved in this house, or want to own again, then admit it and move on.

1st, I dont see houses selling in Poway for ~300k. Show me those 300k SFR comps……
http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92064-Poway

2nd, the economy is slowing, even the federal reserve just published their growing fears about it. Slowing economy means slowing jobs and incomes and that isnt good for housing. Even if housing is on par with rent, which it isnt close, 1997 era shows that a premium on flexablilty and limited liability can be observed in the housing market. As such, housing isnt turning around until jobs/incomes do.

3rd, inflation is picking up. Recient interest rate cuts have not been observed in inflation readings, and the numbers all seem strangly low. Inflation without wage inflation hurts housing prices.

4th, 5-6 months of inventory is considered healthy. More than 7 is unhealthy. Poway currently has 8-9 months. Foreclosures and short sales are killing the market, leading prices down. Until this stops, it is accelerating not stoping, prices will continue to fall.

5th, sales are off by more that 1/3. This is a huge number and will lead to longer times on the market and more reductions necessary to move.

6th, locations around Poway are experiencing the same if not more pronounced problems. Poway, PQ, RB, MM, Esco, and Clairmont are all in the same market. Poway cant bottom and hold until the locations around it do as well. These competing locations are still falling, and Poway will too.

There, 6 reasons why you are wrong to think this is anything more than normal spring activity. Look at the charts, activity ALWAYS picks up in March and April and this year is pathetic but no differnt. If you dont like these reasons you wont like ANY reasons and should just go out and offer 110% of full price on that house you want so badly. That will give it to you for sure. If you really think the market is at bottom, why are you low balling? It is only up from here right?

[DWCAP]

Little lady,

It is starting to seem to me that you dont want to hear the answer that will be given here. You keep asking the same question, ignoring the answers given, and then keep asking to be proven wrong. If you dont want to hear the answer, dont ask. If you have become emotionally involved in this house, or want to own again, then admit it and move on.

1st, I dont see houses selling in Poway for ~300k. Show me those 300k SFR comps……
http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92064-Poway

2nd, the economy is slowing, even the federal reserve just published their growing fears about it. Slowing economy means slowing jobs and incomes and that isnt good for housing. Even if housing is on par with rent, which it isnt close, 1997 era shows that a premium on flexablilty and limited liability can be observed in the housing market. As such, housing isnt turning around until jobs/incomes do.

3rd, inflation is picking up. Recient interest rate cuts have not been observed in inflation readings, and the numbers all seem strangly low. Inflation without wage inflation hurts housing prices.

4th, 5-6 months of inventory is considered healthy. More than 7 is unhealthy. Poway currently has 8-9 months. Foreclosures and short sales are killing the market, leading prices down. Until this stops, it is accelerating not stoping, prices will continue to fall.

5th, sales are off by more that 1/3. This is a huge number and will lead to longer times on the market and more reductions necessary to move.

6th, locations around Poway are experiencing the same if not more pronounced problems. Poway, PQ, RB, MM, Esco, and Clairmont are all in the same market. Poway cant bottom and hold until the locations around it do as well. These competing locations are still falling, and Poway will too.

There, 6 reasons why you are wrong to think this is anything more than normal spring activity. Look at the charts, activity ALWAYS picks up in March and April and this year is pathetic but no differnt. If you dont like these reasons you wont like ANY reasons and should just go out and offer 110% of full price on that house you want so badly. That will give it to you for sure. If you really think the market is at bottom, why are you low balling? It is only up from here right?

[DWCAP]

Little lady,

It is starting to seem to me that you dont want to hear the answer that will be given here. You keep asking the same question, ignoring the answers given, and then keep asking to be proven wrong. If you dont want to hear the answer, dont ask. If you have become emotionally involved in this house, or want to own again, then admit it and move on.

1st, I dont see houses selling in Poway for ~300k. Show me those 300k SFR comps……
http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92064-Poway

2nd, the economy is slowing, even the federal reserve just published their growing fears about it. Slowing economy means slowing jobs and incomes and that isnt good for housing. Even if housing is on par with rent, which it isnt close, 1997 era shows that a premium on flexablilty and limited liability can be observed in the housing market. As such, housing isnt turning around until jobs/incomes do.

3rd, inflation is picking up. Recient interest rate cuts have not been observed in inflation readings, and the numbers all seem strangly low. Inflation without wage inflation hurts housing prices.

4th, 5-6 months of inventory is considered healthy. More than 7 is unhealthy. Poway currently has 8-9 months. Foreclosures and short sales are killing the market, leading prices down. Until this stops, it is accelerating not stoping, prices will continue to fall.

5th, sales are off by more that 1/3. This is a huge number and will lead to longer times on the market and more reductions necessary to move.

6th, locations around Poway are experiencing the same if not more pronounced problems. Poway, PQ, RB, MM, Esco, and Clairmont are all in the same market. Poway cant bottom and hold until the locations around it do as well. These competing locations are still falling, and Poway will too.

There, 6 reasons why you are wrong to think this is anything more than normal spring activity. Look at the charts, activity ALWAYS picks up in March and April and this year is pathetic but no differnt. If you dont like these reasons you wont like ANY reasons and should just go out and offer 110% of full price on that house you want so badly. That will give it to you for sure. If you really think the market is at bottom, why are you low balling? It is only up from here right?

[DWCAP]

Little lady,

It is starting to seem to me that you dont want to hear the answer that will be given here. You keep asking the same question, ignoring the answers given, and then keep asking to be proven wrong. If you dont want to hear the answer, dont ask. If you have become emotionally involved in this house, or want to own again, then admit it and move on.

1st, I dont see houses selling in Poway for ~300k. Show me those 300k SFR comps……
http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92064-Poway

2nd, the economy is slowing, even the federal reserve just published their growing fears about it. Slowing economy means slowing jobs and incomes and that isnt good for housing. Even if housing is on par with rent, which it isnt close, 1997 era shows that a premium on flexablilty and limited liability can be observed in the housing market. As such, housing isnt turning around until jobs/incomes do.

3rd, inflation is picking up. Recient interest rate cuts have not been observed in inflation readings, and the numbers all seem strangly low. Inflation without wage inflation hurts housing prices.

4th, 5-6 months of inventory is considered healthy. More than 7 is unhealthy. Poway currently has 8-9 months. Foreclosures and short sales are killing the market, leading prices down. Until this stops, it is accelerating not stoping, prices will continue to fall.

5th, sales are off by more that 1/3. This is a huge number and will lead to longer times on the market and more reductions necessary to move.

6th, locations around Poway are experiencing the same if not more pronounced problems. Poway, PQ, RB, MM, Esco, and Clairmont are all in the same market. Poway cant bottom and hold until the locations around it do as well. These competing locations are still falling, and Poway will too.

There, 6 reasons why you are wrong to think this is anything more than normal spring activity. Look at the charts, activity ALWAYS picks up in March and April and this year is pathetic but no differnt. If you dont like these reasons you wont like ANY reasons and should just go out and offer 110% of full price on that house you want so badly. That will give it to you for sure. If you really think the market is at bottom, why are you low balling? It is only up from here right?

[DWCAP]

Little lady,

It is starting to seem to me that you dont want to hear the answer that will be given here. You keep asking the same question, ignoring the answers given, and then keep asking to be proven wrong. If you dont want to hear the answer, dont ask. If you have become emotionally involved in this house, or want to own again, then admit it and move on.

1st, I dont see houses selling in Poway for ~300k. Show me those 300k SFR comps……
http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92064-Poway

2nd, the economy is slowing, even the federal reserve just published their growing fears about it. Slowing economy means slowing jobs and incomes and that isnt good for housing. Even if housing is on par with rent, which it isnt close, 1997 era shows that a premium on flexablilty and limited liability can be observed in the housing market. As such, housing isnt turning around until jobs/incomes do.

3rd, inflation is picking up. Recient interest rate cuts have not been observed in inflation readings, and the numbers all seem strangly low. Inflation without wage inflation hurts housing prices.

4th, 5-6 months of inventory is considered healthy. More than 7 is unhealthy. Poway currently has 8-9 months. Foreclosures and short sales are killing the market, leading prices down. Until this stops, it is accelerating not stoping, prices will continue to fall.

5th, sales are off by more that 1/3. This is a huge number and will lead to longer times on the market and more reductions necessary to move.

6th, locations around Poway are experiencing the same if not more pronounced problems. Poway, PQ, RB, MM, Esco, and Clairmont are all in the same market. Poway cant bottom and hold until the locations around it do as well. These competing locations are still falling, and Poway will too.

There, 6 reasons why you are wrong to think this is anything more than normal spring activity. Look at the charts, activity ALWAYS picks up in March and April and this year is pathetic but no differnt. If you dont like these reasons you wont like ANY reasons and should just go out and offer 110% of full price on that house you want so badly. That will give it to you for sure. If you really think the market is at bottom, why are you low balling? It is only up from here right?

[ibjames]

With as much uncertainty in our economy, that itself is enough to make purchasing a home a back burner priority. If this thing didn’t turn into a recession scenario, it might make it more tricky, but when I look into the crystal ball I keep seeing one more chip added to the stack opposite of housing’s favor.

[ibjames]

With as much uncertainty in our economy, that itself is enough to make purchasing a home a back burner priority. If this thing didn’t turn into a recession scenario, it might make it more tricky, but when I look into the crystal ball I keep seeing one more chip added to the stack opposite of housing’s favor.

[ibjames]

With as much uncertainty in our economy, that itself is enough to make purchasing a home a back burner priority. If this thing didn’t turn into a recession scenario, it might make it more tricky, but when I look into the crystal ball I keep seeing one more chip added to the stack opposite of housing’s favor.

[ibjames]

With as much uncertainty in our economy, that itself is enough to make purchasing a home a back burner priority. If this thing didn’t turn into a recession scenario, it might make it more tricky, but when I look into the crystal ball I keep seeing one more chip added to the stack opposite of housing’s favor.

[ibjames]

With as much uncertainty in our economy, that itself is enough to make purchasing a home a back burner priority. If this thing didn’t turn into a recession scenario, it might make it more tricky, but when I look into the crystal ball I keep seeing one more chip added to the stack opposite of housing’s favor.

[Doofrat]

There are two options as I see it:

1. Buy a house now and then (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

2. Continue renting and (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

I see option 2 as having almost no risk (and I hate saying no risk)

I see option 1 as being fraught with risk and speculation.

Just my opinion.

BTW Here’s a crappy graph I made using general figures of per capita income (which I just interpolated from Rich’s graphs so it’s not accurate, or could be totally wrong. Is it really just about $33,000?). I mapped what the price of a median house should be based on the historic peak price to income ratio, the historic median price to income ratio and the historic low price to income ratio and then increased the income by 4% each year to show what each price range should be in the future.

It’s not the most accurate graph (or pretty for that matter), but I hope it shows how much more this market could go down.
[img_assist|nid=7131|title=ptoi|desc=Price to Income Ratio|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=275]

[Doofrat]

There are two options as I see it:

1. Buy a house now and then (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

2. Continue renting and (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

I see option 2 as having almost no risk (and I hate saying no risk)

I see option 1 as being fraught with risk and speculation.

Just my opinion.

BTW Here’s a crappy graph I made using general figures of per capita income (which I just interpolated from Rich’s graphs so it’s not accurate, or could be totally wrong. Is it really just about $33,000?). I mapped what the price of a median house should be based on the historic peak price to income ratio, the historic median price to income ratio and the historic low price to income ratio and then increased the income by 4% each year to show what each price range should be in the future.

It’s not the most accurate graph (or pretty for that matter), but I hope it shows how much more this market could go down.
[img_assist|nid=7131|title=ptoi|desc=Price to Income Ratio|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=275]

[Doofrat]

There are two options as I see it:

1. Buy a house now and then (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

2. Continue renting and (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

I see option 2 as having almost no risk (and I hate saying no risk)

I see option 1 as being fraught with risk and speculation.

Just my opinion.

BTW Here’s a crappy graph I made using general figures of per capita income (which I just interpolated from Rich’s graphs so it’s not accurate, or could be totally wrong. Is it really just about $33,000?). I mapped what the price of a median house should be based on the historic peak price to income ratio, the historic median price to income ratio and the historic low price to income ratio and then increased the income by 4% each year to show what each price range should be in the future.

It’s not the most accurate graph (or pretty for that matter), but I hope it shows how much more this market could go down.
[img_assist|nid=7131|title=ptoi|desc=Price to Income Ratio|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=275]

[Doofrat]

There are two options as I see it:

1. Buy a house now and then (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

2. Continue renting and (in say about 2011, but who knows) see if April 2008 was really the bottom.

I see option 2 as having almost no risk (and I hate saying no risk)

I see option 1 as being fraught with risk and speculation.

Just my opinion.

BTW Here’s a crappy graph I made using general figures of per capita income (which I just interpolated from Rich’s graphs so it’s not accurate, or could be totally wrong. Is it really just about $33,000?). I mapped what the price of a median house should be based on the historic peak price to income ratio, the historic median price to income ratio and the historic low price to income ratio and then increased the income by 4% each year to show what each price range should be in the future.

It’s not the most accurate graph (or pretty for that matter), but I hope it shows how much more this market could go down.
[img_assist|nid=7131|title=ptoi|desc=Price to Income Ratio|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=275]

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