Have some areas in San Diego county hit bottom?

[NotCranky]

“Rental houses are just another substitute for rental apartments.”
I don’t agree, Rental houses come with more or less dirt and in some regards can be thought of as a land bank with cashflow. This benefit is more likely to be realized in some areas property types then others.

OTOH, I could be completely wrong about all this and we might be looking at the “new paradigm”, where the old rules don’t apply.

With all due respect bugs I think your outlook requires a new paradigm as much as the bullish one’s do. I appreciate it that you are admitting the possibility of being wrong as we all are in that boat.

[Bugs]

It’s true that my last post included the “30% – 40%” figure, but in all fairness I did express the (personal) opinion that I was thinking more along the lines of 10% or so.

As far as rental houses being a substitute for rental apartments I’d ask you to look at it not in terms of owning the asset – which is where the upside potential for profit comes in – but in terms of renting it. Rental tenants, unlike buyers and sellers, consider rents strictly as a housing expense. There is no profit incentive or potential upside in it for them. A rental tenant makes their payment and gets their housing covered for that month. That’s it.

So yeah, if a rental tenant in 4S gets their income squeezed they might consider moving to Mira Mesa to replace the MM tenant that ended up downsizing to an apartment in North Park. Thus, a connection – indirect though it may be – can be drawn between the North Park apartment market and the Carmel Valley SFR rental market.

Like I said, it’s all connected. Some connections are just more direct than others.

[Bugs]

It’s true that my last post included the “30% – 40%” figure, but in all fairness I did express the (personal) opinion that I was thinking more along the lines of 10% or so.

As far as rental houses being a substitute for rental apartments I’d ask you to look at it not in terms of owning the asset – which is where the upside potential for profit comes in – but in terms of renting it. Rental tenants, unlike buyers and sellers, consider rents strictly as a housing expense. There is no profit incentive or potential upside in it for them. A rental tenant makes their payment and gets their housing covered for that month. That’s it.

So yeah, if a rental tenant in 4S gets their income squeezed they might consider moving to Mira Mesa to replace the MM tenant that ended up downsizing to an apartment in North Park. Thus, a connection – indirect though it may be – can be drawn between the North Park apartment market and the Carmel Valley SFR rental market.

Like I said, it’s all connected. Some connections are just more direct than others.

[Bugs]

It’s true that my last post included the “30% – 40%” figure, but in all fairness I did express the (personal) opinion that I was thinking more along the lines of 10% or so.

As far as rental houses being a substitute for rental apartments I’d ask you to look at it not in terms of owning the asset – which is where the upside potential for profit comes in – but in terms of renting it. Rental tenants, unlike buyers and sellers, consider rents strictly as a housing expense. There is no profit incentive or potential upside in it for them. A rental tenant makes their payment and gets their housing covered for that month. That’s it.

So yeah, if a rental tenant in 4S gets their income squeezed they might consider moving to Mira Mesa to replace the MM tenant that ended up downsizing to an apartment in North Park. Thus, a connection – indirect though it may be – can be drawn between the North Park apartment market and the Carmel Valley SFR rental market.

Like I said, it’s all connected. Some connections are just more direct than others.

[Bugs]

It’s true that my last post included the “30% – 40%” figure, but in all fairness I did express the (personal) opinion that I was thinking more along the lines of 10% or so.

As far as rental houses being a substitute for rental apartments I’d ask you to look at it not in terms of owning the asset – which is where the upside potential for profit comes in – but in terms of renting it. Rental tenants, unlike buyers and sellers, consider rents strictly as a housing expense. There is no profit incentive or potential upside in it for them. A rental tenant makes their payment and gets their housing covered for that month. That’s it.

So yeah, if a rental tenant in 4S gets their income squeezed they might consider moving to Mira Mesa to replace the MM tenant that ended up downsizing to an apartment in North Park. Thus, a connection – indirect though it may be – can be drawn between the North Park apartment market and the Carmel Valley SFR rental market.

Like I said, it’s all connected. Some connections are just more direct than others.

[Bugs]

It’s true that my last post included the “30% – 40%” figure, but in all fairness I did express the (personal) opinion that I was thinking more along the lines of 10% or so.

As far as rental houses being a substitute for rental apartments I’d ask you to look at it not in terms of owning the asset – which is where the upside potential for profit comes in – but in terms of renting it. Rental tenants, unlike buyers and sellers, consider rents strictly as a housing expense. There is no profit incentive or potential upside in it for them. A rental tenant makes their payment and gets their housing covered for that month. That’s it.

So yeah, if a rental tenant in 4S gets their income squeezed they might consider moving to Mira Mesa to replace the MM tenant that ended up downsizing to an apartment in North Park. Thus, a connection – indirect though it may be – can be drawn between the North Park apartment market and the Carmel Valley SFR rental market.

Like I said, it’s all connected. Some connections are just more direct than others.

[Coronita]

Rust, SFR,

I have not noticed rentals drop signficantly (yet) frankly. I'm actually curious if within S.D. history, we've ever seen rental's drop. Data anyone?

 

The wildcard imho is whether rent will just go up with inflation that we're seeing. I can understand why one wouldn't "have" to buy a home. But eventually we get to a point when shelter is a necessity, whether if you buy or rent if one wants to live here. Assuming "demand" for shelter is remaining relatively constant in the more inner SD areas, to me it means  same demand, different format (rental versus home).

So if a landlord in some of the more popular area decides to continue to jack up rent, me thinks most people will just put up with it.  I don't think we've seen massive unemployment yet in SD for which people are moving out in massive numbers from SD to consider the "demand" for shelter drastically shrinking. And while salary for most definitely isn't keeping up with inflation, most(not all) are accustomed to their current environment and wouldn't seriously consider packing up and leaving for another area..Most would just put up with the increased cost, and cut somewhere else… Especially is the case now that it's harder for J6p to buy a leveraged home…You're now more likely to be competing with j6p for a lease.

The question is whether we're going to have a mass exodus from S.D. At least right now, it doesn't seem so, because I don't think we're seeing massive unemployment yet. In fact, a few people I met recently moved from SF area to here. Why? Because of all things, they say the cost of living to raise a family is lower here and salaries wise from the tech sector, it's about a wash. Of course, there's not as much of job selection out here. But if you happen to have what the S.D. *com companies want (Qualcomm, Broadcom,every other wireless-com), employment hasn't been an issue (yet)…And I'm sure those who regularly post here that are in the chip business/wireless business can attest that companies are still hiring, it's just hard to find qualified people here to do the work. So there isn't a "job" shortage. There is a "skill" shortage, which is completely different.

The more sinister problem with this "skill" shortage though, is inevitably if it is prolonged, a company at some point or the other has to decide whether to pay a ungodly about of money to bring that skill here or if it makes sense to have that position open here or somewhere else. Short term, it's usually the former..Longer term. for multi-national companies, that often means more work being moved elsewhere, typically overseas. And when that happens, that opportunity typically ends up leaving the area….permanently…Outsourcing isn't just about cost anymore. In a lot of cases, it's really about filling a skills shortage. 

 

 

 

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Rust, SFR,

I have not noticed rentals drop signficantly (yet) frankly. I'm actually curious if within S.D. history, we've ever seen rental's drop. Data anyone?

 

The wildcard imho is whether rent will just go up with inflation that we're seeing. I can understand why one wouldn't "have" to buy a home. But eventually we get to a point when shelter is a necessity, whether if you buy or rent if one wants to live here. Assuming "demand" for shelter is remaining relatively constant in the more inner SD areas, to me it means  same demand, different format (rental versus home).

So if a landlord in some of the more popular area decides to continue to jack up rent, me thinks most people will just put up with it.  I don't think we've seen massive unemployment yet in SD for which people are moving out in massive numbers from SD to consider the "demand" for shelter drastically shrinking. And while salary for most definitely isn't keeping up with inflation, most(not all) are accustomed to their current environment and wouldn't seriously consider packing up and leaving for another area..Most would just put up with the increased cost, and cut somewhere else… Especially is the case now that it's harder for J6p to buy a leveraged home…You're now more likely to be competing with j6p for a lease.

The question is whether we're going to have a mass exodus from S.D. At least right now, it doesn't seem so, because I don't think we're seeing massive unemployment yet. In fact, a few people I met recently moved from SF area to here. Why? Because of all things, they say the cost of living to raise a family is lower here and salaries wise from the tech sector, it's about a wash. Of course, there's not as much of job selection out here. But if you happen to have what the S.D. *com companies want (Qualcomm, Broadcom,every other wireless-com), employment hasn't been an issue (yet)…And I'm sure those who regularly post here that are in the chip business/wireless business can attest that companies are still hiring, it's just hard to find qualified people here to do the work. So there isn't a "job" shortage. There is a "skill" shortage, which is completely different.

The more sinister problem with this "skill" shortage though, is inevitably if it is prolonged, a company at some point or the other has to decide whether to pay a ungodly about of money to bring that skill here or if it makes sense to have that position open here or somewhere else. Short term, it's usually the former..Longer term. for multi-national companies, that often means more work being moved elsewhere, typically overseas. And when that happens, that opportunity typically ends up leaving the area….permanently…Outsourcing isn't just about cost anymore. In a lot of cases, it's really about filling a skills shortage. 

 

 

 

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Rust, SFR,

I have not noticed rentals drop signficantly (yet) frankly. I'm actually curious if within S.D. history, we've ever seen rental's drop. Data anyone?

 

The wildcard imho is whether rent will just go up with inflation that we're seeing. I can understand why one wouldn't "have" to buy a home. But eventually we get to a point when shelter is a necessity, whether if you buy or rent if one wants to live here. Assuming "demand" for shelter is remaining relatively constant in the more inner SD areas, to me it means  same demand, different format (rental versus home).

So if a landlord in some of the more popular area decides to continue to jack up rent, me thinks most people will just put up with it.  I don't think we've seen massive unemployment yet in SD for which people are moving out in massive numbers from SD to consider the "demand" for shelter drastically shrinking. And while salary for most definitely isn't keeping up with inflation, most(not all) are accustomed to their current environment and wouldn't seriously consider packing up and leaving for another area..Most would just put up with the increased cost, and cut somewhere else… Especially is the case now that it's harder for J6p to buy a leveraged home…You're now more likely to be competing with j6p for a lease.

The question is whether we're going to have a mass exodus from S.D. At least right now, it doesn't seem so, because I don't think we're seeing massive unemployment yet. In fact, a few people I met recently moved from SF area to here. Why? Because of all things, they say the cost of living to raise a family is lower here and salaries wise from the tech sector, it's about a wash. Of course, there's not as much of job selection out here. But if you happen to have what the S.D. *com companies want (Qualcomm, Broadcom,every other wireless-com), employment hasn't been an issue (yet)…And I'm sure those who regularly post here that are in the chip business/wireless business can attest that companies are still hiring, it's just hard to find qualified people here to do the work. So there isn't a "job" shortage. There is a "skill" shortage, which is completely different.

The more sinister problem with this "skill" shortage though, is inevitably if it is prolonged, a company at some point or the other has to decide whether to pay a ungodly about of money to bring that skill here or if it makes sense to have that position open here or somewhere else. Short term, it's usually the former..Longer term. for multi-national companies, that often means more work being moved elsewhere, typically overseas. And when that happens, that opportunity typically ends up leaving the area….permanently…Outsourcing isn't just about cost anymore. In a lot of cases, it's really about filling a skills shortage. 

 

 

 

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Rust, SFR,

I have not noticed rentals drop signficantly (yet) frankly. I'm actually curious if within S.D. history, we've ever seen rental's drop. Data anyone?

 

The wildcard imho is whether rent will just go up with inflation that we're seeing. I can understand why one wouldn't "have" to buy a home. But eventually we get to a point when shelter is a necessity, whether if you buy or rent if one wants to live here. Assuming "demand" for shelter is remaining relatively constant in the more inner SD areas, to me it means  same demand, different format (rental versus home).

So if a landlord in some of the more popular area decides to continue to jack up rent, me thinks most people will just put up with it.  I don't think we've seen massive unemployment yet in SD for which people are moving out in massive numbers from SD to consider the "demand" for shelter drastically shrinking. And while salary for most definitely isn't keeping up with inflation, most(not all) are accustomed to their current environment and wouldn't seriously consider packing up and leaving for another area..Most would just put up with the increased cost, and cut somewhere else… Especially is the case now that it's harder for J6p to buy a leveraged home…You're now more likely to be competing with j6p for a lease.

The question is whether we're going to have a mass exodus from S.D. At least right now, it doesn't seem so, because I don't think we're seeing massive unemployment yet. In fact, a few people I met recently moved from SF area to here. Why? Because of all things, they say the cost of living to raise a family is lower here and salaries wise from the tech sector, it's about a wash. Of course, there's not as much of job selection out here. But if you happen to have what the S.D. *com companies want (Qualcomm, Broadcom,every other wireless-com), employment hasn't been an issue (yet)…And I'm sure those who regularly post here that are in the chip business/wireless business can attest that companies are still hiring, it's just hard to find qualified people here to do the work. So there isn't a "job" shortage. There is a "skill" shortage, which is completely different.

The more sinister problem with this "skill" shortage though, is inevitably if it is prolonged, a company at some point or the other has to decide whether to pay a ungodly about of money to bring that skill here or if it makes sense to have that position open here or somewhere else. Short term, it's usually the former..Longer term. for multi-national companies, that often means more work being moved elsewhere, typically overseas. And when that happens, that opportunity typically ends up leaving the area….permanently…Outsourcing isn't just about cost anymore. In a lot of cases, it's really about filling a skills shortage. 

 

 

 

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Rust, SFR,

I have not noticed rentals drop signficantly (yet) frankly. I'm actually curious if within S.D. history, we've ever seen rental's drop. Data anyone?

 

The wildcard imho is whether rent will just go up with inflation that we're seeing. I can understand why one wouldn't "have" to buy a home. But eventually we get to a point when shelter is a necessity, whether if you buy or rent if one wants to live here. Assuming "demand" for shelter is remaining relatively constant in the more inner SD areas, to me it means  same demand, different format (rental versus home).

So if a landlord in some of the more popular area decides to continue to jack up rent, me thinks most people will just put up with it.  I don't think we've seen massive unemployment yet in SD for which people are moving out in massive numbers from SD to consider the "demand" for shelter drastically shrinking. And while salary for most definitely isn't keeping up with inflation, most(not all) are accustomed to their current environment and wouldn't seriously consider packing up and leaving for another area..Most would just put up with the increased cost, and cut somewhere else… Especially is the case now that it's harder for J6p to buy a leveraged home…You're now more likely to be competing with j6p for a lease.

The question is whether we're going to have a mass exodus from S.D. At least right now, it doesn't seem so, because I don't think we're seeing massive unemployment yet. In fact, a few people I met recently moved from SF area to here. Why? Because of all things, they say the cost of living to raise a family is lower here and salaries wise from the tech sector, it's about a wash. Of course, there's not as much of job selection out here. But if you happen to have what the S.D. *com companies want (Qualcomm, Broadcom,every other wireless-com), employment hasn't been an issue (yet)…And I'm sure those who regularly post here that are in the chip business/wireless business can attest that companies are still hiring, it's just hard to find qualified people here to do the work. So there isn't a "job" shortage. There is a "skill" shortage, which is completely different.

The more sinister problem with this "skill" shortage though, is inevitably if it is prolonged, a company at some point or the other has to decide whether to pay a ungodly about of money to bring that skill here or if it makes sense to have that position open here or somewhere else. Short term, it's usually the former..Longer term. for multi-national companies, that often means more work being moved elsewhere, typically overseas. And when that happens, that opportunity typically ends up leaving the area….permanently…Outsourcing isn't just about cost anymore. In a lot of cases, it's really about filling a skills shortage. 

 

 

 

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[LostCat]

They can put all the offers in the world down, but have fun finding a bank that will lend them the money. Santucky, just like Poway?????

[LostCat]

They can put all the offers in the world down, but have fun finding a bank that will lend them the money. Santucky, just like Poway?????

[LostCat]

They can put all the offers in the world down, but have fun finding a bank that will lend them the money. Santucky, just like Poway?????

[LostCat]

They can put all the offers in the world down, but have fun finding a bank that will lend them the money. Santucky, just like Poway?????

[Author]

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