Have some areas in San Diego county hit bottom?

[little lady]

DWCAP

Your missing what I am saying, but that is okay…..

“1st, I dont see houses selling in Poway for ~300k. Show me those 300k SFR comps……”

He didn’t say this, he said they were mirror markets, not prices….simular housing stock….although the same kind of house doesn’t go for much more up there(he said they have the exact same model that I sold in Santee up there) and they were getting multiple offers…I knew this would wrinkle feathers….not everyone feels the same way and I could give a rats…you know…..

This is my first offer, and lowballing because I thought the market was crap and I in the perfect situation. It was NOT a house I have any attachment to. I felt like if I didn’t get it so be it…there are more comming. It just was in the same neighborhood and if I got it at that price I would be pretty sure it wasn’t gonna fall a signifagant amount less,(that I wasn’t sure when the market recovered it would be worth) like the fellow in Temecula we’ve been reading about. After seeing this ridiculous amount of activity- and I MEAN RIDICULOUS……I began to suspect maybe the end is near or here….I needed some validation…..some sure proof that it isn’t turning around…I am second guessing myself….I know Piggingtonians are sure the worst is yet to come…….and they have proof……now I feel better, thanks y’all

[NotCranky]

I do have friend named Chuck, different neighborhood.

[NotCranky]

I do have friend named Chuck, different neighborhood.

[NotCranky]

I do have friend named Chuck, different neighborhood.

[NotCranky]

I do have friend named Chuck, different neighborhood.

[NotCranky]

I do have friend named Chuck, different neighborhood.

[DWCAP]

How much did he overpay? Compared to what? Imagine if he had put that money into Microsoft stock. Assuming a 20% down, he put down 30k. Now I dont have the exact multiplier, but if I remember right 10k in 1991 in microsoft stock is now worth 900k. So, it could be worth 2.7mil if he invested another way. That is about 9 times more than the value of his house. Sounds like a bad investment to me.

My point isnt that anything that wasnt the best investment ever is underperforming or anything. My point is that hind sight is 20/20 and we all remember the successes. Imagine if he had lost his job back in 1996. There is no way he could have known that he wouldnt lose it in 1991. So in 17 years things worked out for him. Good for him. I have a feeling that it is a safe bet that in 2025 RE prices will be nominally higher than now. Id guess that cars, tennis shoes, and lollipops will be more expensive too.

Work inflation into this guys return and it isnt all that great. We need to take into account the fact that this investment also fulfilled a basic need of shelter, so the return has been better than the numbers show. But still, to me this shows that in the long run housing acts like gov bonds, sure it all goes up but the return just isnt that great.

[DWCAP]

How much did he overpay? Compared to what? Imagine if he had put that money into Microsoft stock. Assuming a 20% down, he put down 30k. Now I dont have the exact multiplier, but if I remember right 10k in 1991 in microsoft stock is now worth 900k. So, it could be worth 2.7mil if he invested another way. That is about 9 times more than the value of his house. Sounds like a bad investment to me.

My point isnt that anything that wasnt the best investment ever is underperforming or anything. My point is that hind sight is 20/20 and we all remember the successes. Imagine if he had lost his job back in 1996. There is no way he could have known that he wouldnt lose it in 1991. So in 17 years things worked out for him. Good for him. I have a feeling that it is a safe bet that in 2025 RE prices will be nominally higher than now. Id guess that cars, tennis shoes, and lollipops will be more expensive too.

Work inflation into this guys return and it isnt all that great. We need to take into account the fact that this investment also fulfilled a basic need of shelter, so the return has been better than the numbers show. But still, to me this shows that in the long run housing acts like gov bonds, sure it all goes up but the return just isnt that great.

[DWCAP]

How much did he overpay? Compared to what? Imagine if he had put that money into Microsoft stock. Assuming a 20% down, he put down 30k. Now I dont have the exact multiplier, but if I remember right 10k in 1991 in microsoft stock is now worth 900k. So, it could be worth 2.7mil if he invested another way. That is about 9 times more than the value of his house. Sounds like a bad investment to me.

My point isnt that anything that wasnt the best investment ever is underperforming or anything. My point is that hind sight is 20/20 and we all remember the successes. Imagine if he had lost his job back in 1996. There is no way he could have known that he wouldnt lose it in 1991. So in 17 years things worked out for him. Good for him. I have a feeling that it is a safe bet that in 2025 RE prices will be nominally higher than now. Id guess that cars, tennis shoes, and lollipops will be more expensive too.

Work inflation into this guys return and it isnt all that great. We need to take into account the fact that this investment also fulfilled a basic need of shelter, so the return has been better than the numbers show. But still, to me this shows that in the long run housing acts like gov bonds, sure it all goes up but the return just isnt that great.

[DWCAP]

How much did he overpay? Compared to what? Imagine if he had put that money into Microsoft stock. Assuming a 20% down, he put down 30k. Now I dont have the exact multiplier, but if I remember right 10k in 1991 in microsoft stock is now worth 900k. So, it could be worth 2.7mil if he invested another way. That is about 9 times more than the value of his house. Sounds like a bad investment to me.

My point isnt that anything that wasnt the best investment ever is underperforming or anything. My point is that hind sight is 20/20 and we all remember the successes. Imagine if he had lost his job back in 1996. There is no way he could have known that he wouldnt lose it in 1991. So in 17 years things worked out for him. Good for him. I have a feeling that it is a safe bet that in 2025 RE prices will be nominally higher than now. Id guess that cars, tennis shoes, and lollipops will be more expensive too.

Work inflation into this guys return and it isnt all that great. We need to take into account the fact that this investment also fulfilled a basic need of shelter, so the return has been better than the numbers show. But still, to me this shows that in the long run housing acts like gov bonds, sure it all goes up but the return just isnt that great.

[DWCAP]

How much did he overpay? Compared to what? Imagine if he had put that money into Microsoft stock. Assuming a 20% down, he put down 30k. Now I dont have the exact multiplier, but if I remember right 10k in 1991 in microsoft stock is now worth 900k. So, it could be worth 2.7mil if he invested another way. That is about 9 times more than the value of his house. Sounds like a bad investment to me.

My point isnt that anything that wasnt the best investment ever is underperforming or anything. My point is that hind sight is 20/20 and we all remember the successes. Imagine if he had lost his job back in 1996. There is no way he could have known that he wouldnt lose it in 1991. So in 17 years things worked out for him. Good for him. I have a feeling that it is a safe bet that in 2025 RE prices will be nominally higher than now. Id guess that cars, tennis shoes, and lollipops will be more expensive too.

Work inflation into this guys return and it isnt all that great. We need to take into account the fact that this investment also fulfilled a basic need of shelter, so the return has been better than the numbers show. But still, to me this shows that in the long run housing acts like gov bonds, sure it all goes up but the return just isnt that great.

[jpinpb]

OK. For a minute there I was thinking the world was shrinking. I know someone who bought in Clairemont in 1990 for 150k. Dropped slightly in the early/mid 90’s. Went up to 450k during the boom and now down to 350k. He refinanced and did a 15 year loan I forget when. He has savings. He’s got a civil service job and wife is a teacher. He’s probably due to retire in about 10 years or so, thereabouts, maybe less. Pretty conservative. They are not major consumers. They do travel quite a bit.

DWCAP – I see your point. When I went back to school something possessed me to buy some AAPL. Not much. Didn’t have too much $$$ but picked it up for 30 something. Hindsight is a killer. Should’ve taken a loan and bought some more stock back then. Crystal ball wasn’t working too well. Just did it on a whim.

Of course, the place did provide housing and that is worth something.

[jpinpb]

OK. For a minute there I was thinking the world was shrinking. I know someone who bought in Clairemont in 1990 for 150k. Dropped slightly in the early/mid 90’s. Went up to 450k during the boom and now down to 350k. He refinanced and did a 15 year loan I forget when. He has savings. He’s got a civil service job and wife is a teacher. He’s probably due to retire in about 10 years or so, thereabouts, maybe less. Pretty conservative. They are not major consumers. They do travel quite a bit.

DWCAP – I see your point. When I went back to school something possessed me to buy some AAPL. Not much. Didn’t have too much $$$ but picked it up for 30 something. Hindsight is a killer. Should’ve taken a loan and bought some more stock back then. Crystal ball wasn’t working too well. Just did it on a whim.

Of course, the place did provide housing and that is worth something.

[jpinpb]

OK. For a minute there I was thinking the world was shrinking. I know someone who bought in Clairemont in 1990 for 150k. Dropped slightly in the early/mid 90’s. Went up to 450k during the boom and now down to 350k. He refinanced and did a 15 year loan I forget when. He has savings. He’s got a civil service job and wife is a teacher. He’s probably due to retire in about 10 years or so, thereabouts, maybe less. Pretty conservative. They are not major consumers. They do travel quite a bit.

DWCAP – I see your point. When I went back to school something possessed me to buy some AAPL. Not much. Didn’t have too much $$$ but picked it up for 30 something. Hindsight is a killer. Should’ve taken a loan and bought some more stock back then. Crystal ball wasn’t working too well. Just did it on a whim.

Of course, the place did provide housing and that is worth something.

[jpinpb]

OK. For a minute there I was thinking the world was shrinking. I know someone who bought in Clairemont in 1990 for 150k. Dropped slightly in the early/mid 90’s. Went up to 450k during the boom and now down to 350k. He refinanced and did a 15 year loan I forget when. He has savings. He’s got a civil service job and wife is a teacher. He’s probably due to retire in about 10 years or so, thereabouts, maybe less. Pretty conservative. They are not major consumers. They do travel quite a bit.

DWCAP – I see your point. When I went back to school something possessed me to buy some AAPL. Not much. Didn’t have too much $$$ but picked it up for 30 something. Hindsight is a killer. Should’ve taken a loan and bought some more stock back then. Crystal ball wasn’t working too well. Just did it on a whim.

Of course, the place did provide housing and that is worth something.

[Author]

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