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sdrealtor.
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May 16, 2011 at 12:24 PM #696883May 16, 2011 at 3:16 PM #695740
Anonymous
GuestIf case shiller actually drops 10% from Dec 2010, then total drop from the peak would be 43%, consistent with what myself and most other bears have been predicting all along. To drop 20% would be a 49% drop from peak, although still quite possible in my opinion, I wouldn’t bet on it cause it is a 50/50 proposition.
So the fact that you won’t bet on the 10% drop means either you are a wuss, or, you actually believe it will drop 10% (with at least 50% probability). So the fact that you may believe in the 10% drop makes you quite the bear, because again that would equate to a 43% drop from peak.
Why don’t you share the address of that place you just sold so we can judge for ourselves.. I know things are different where you live. But here in the real world (coastal San Diego) prices in my neighborhood keep setting new lows.
May 16, 2011 at 3:16 PM #695828GuestIf case shiller actually drops 10% from Dec 2010, then total drop from the peak would be 43%, consistent with what myself and most other bears have been predicting all along. To drop 20% would be a 49% drop from peak, although still quite possible in my opinion, I wouldn’t bet on it cause it is a 50/50 proposition.
So the fact that you won’t bet on the 10% drop means either you are a wuss, or, you actually believe it will drop 10% (with at least 50% probability). So the fact that you may believe in the 10% drop makes you quite the bear, because again that would equate to a 43% drop from peak.
Why don’t you share the address of that place you just sold so we can judge for ourselves.. I know things are different where you live. But here in the real world (coastal San Diego) prices in my neighborhood keep setting new lows.
May 16, 2011 at 3:16 PM #696427GuestIf case shiller actually drops 10% from Dec 2010, then total drop from the peak would be 43%, consistent with what myself and most other bears have been predicting all along. To drop 20% would be a 49% drop from peak, although still quite possible in my opinion, I wouldn’t bet on it cause it is a 50/50 proposition.
So the fact that you won’t bet on the 10% drop means either you are a wuss, or, you actually believe it will drop 10% (with at least 50% probability). So the fact that you may believe in the 10% drop makes you quite the bear, because again that would equate to a 43% drop from peak.
Why don’t you share the address of that place you just sold so we can judge for ourselves.. I know things are different where you live. But here in the real world (coastal San Diego) prices in my neighborhood keep setting new lows.
May 16, 2011 at 3:16 PM #696574GuestIf case shiller actually drops 10% from Dec 2010, then total drop from the peak would be 43%, consistent with what myself and most other bears have been predicting all along. To drop 20% would be a 49% drop from peak, although still quite possible in my opinion, I wouldn’t bet on it cause it is a 50/50 proposition.
So the fact that you won’t bet on the 10% drop means either you are a wuss, or, you actually believe it will drop 10% (with at least 50% probability). So the fact that you may believe in the 10% drop makes you quite the bear, because again that would equate to a 43% drop from peak.
Why don’t you share the address of that place you just sold so we can judge for ourselves.. I know things are different where you live. But here in the real world (coastal San Diego) prices in my neighborhood keep setting new lows.
May 16, 2011 at 3:16 PM #696928GuestIf case shiller actually drops 10% from Dec 2010, then total drop from the peak would be 43%, consistent with what myself and most other bears have been predicting all along. To drop 20% would be a 49% drop from peak, although still quite possible in my opinion, I wouldn’t bet on it cause it is a 50/50 proposition.
So the fact that you won’t bet on the 10% drop means either you are a wuss, or, you actually believe it will drop 10% (with at least 50% probability). So the fact that you may believe in the 10% drop makes you quite the bear, because again that would equate to a 43% drop from peak.
Why don’t you share the address of that place you just sold so we can judge for ourselves.. I know things are different where you live. But here in the real world (coastal San Diego) prices in my neighborhood keep setting new lows.
May 16, 2011 at 4:40 PM #695745sdrealtor
ParticipantActually most of the bears on this site have been calling for 50%. Five years on this site in well documented fashion, I called for a maximum of 30% decline in NCC. My hood reached about 20% and I have always beleived there is a chance for another 10% down.
I dont pretend to have all the answers countywide and could see crazy things happening in some of the more unstable areas like east county, south bay, north of 78 corridor etc which could make us hit that 10% down but I dont see it for areas bordered by 15 and the ocean as well as the 8 to 78 which I follow closest.
I will PM you the address of the property so you can see for yourself. I have nothing to hide personally but owe my clients privacy. Send me a PM saying you will respect our privacy and I will trust you then I will send you the address to see for yourself.
As for being a wuss, hardly. I make bets because I know I will win them. I took one from CAR already and am a lock for the 2nd.
As for being quite the bear, I was for a long time but now I see stability where as the permabear sit home praying for another big leg down.
May 16, 2011 at 4:40 PM #695833ParticipantActually most of the bears on this site have been calling for 50%. Five years on this site in well documented fashion, I called for a maximum of 30% decline in NCC. My hood reached about 20% and I have always beleived there is a chance for another 10% down.
I dont pretend to have all the answers countywide and could see crazy things happening in some of the more unstable areas like east county, south bay, north of 78 corridor etc which could make us hit that 10% down but I dont see it for areas bordered by 15 and the ocean as well as the 8 to 78 which I follow closest.
I will PM you the address of the property so you can see for yourself. I have nothing to hide personally but owe my clients privacy. Send me a PM saying you will respect our privacy and I will trust you then I will send you the address to see for yourself.
As for being a wuss, hardly. I make bets because I know I will win them. I took one from CAR already and am a lock for the 2nd.
As for being quite the bear, I was for a long time but now I see stability where as the permabear sit home praying for another big leg down.
May 16, 2011 at 4:40 PM #696432ParticipantActually most of the bears on this site have been calling for 50%. Five years on this site in well documented fashion, I called for a maximum of 30% decline in NCC. My hood reached about 20% and I have always beleived there is a chance for another 10% down.
I dont pretend to have all the answers countywide and could see crazy things happening in some of the more unstable areas like east county, south bay, north of 78 corridor etc which could make us hit that 10% down but I dont see it for areas bordered by 15 and the ocean as well as the 8 to 78 which I follow closest.
I will PM you the address of the property so you can see for yourself. I have nothing to hide personally but owe my clients privacy. Send me a PM saying you will respect our privacy and I will trust you then I will send you the address to see for yourself.
As for being a wuss, hardly. I make bets because I know I will win them. I took one from CAR already and am a lock for the 2nd.
As for being quite the bear, I was for a long time but now I see stability where as the permabear sit home praying for another big leg down.
May 16, 2011 at 4:40 PM #696579ParticipantActually most of the bears on this site have been calling for 50%. Five years on this site in well documented fashion, I called for a maximum of 30% decline in NCC. My hood reached about 20% and I have always beleived there is a chance for another 10% down.
I dont pretend to have all the answers countywide and could see crazy things happening in some of the more unstable areas like east county, south bay, north of 78 corridor etc which could make us hit that 10% down but I dont see it for areas bordered by 15 and the ocean as well as the 8 to 78 which I follow closest.
I will PM you the address of the property so you can see for yourself. I have nothing to hide personally but owe my clients privacy. Send me a PM saying you will respect our privacy and I will trust you then I will send you the address to see for yourself.
As for being a wuss, hardly. I make bets because I know I will win them. I took one from CAR already and am a lock for the 2nd.
As for being quite the bear, I was for a long time but now I see stability where as the permabear sit home praying for another big leg down.
May 16, 2011 at 4:40 PM #696933ParticipantActually most of the bears on this site have been calling for 50%. Five years on this site in well documented fashion, I called for a maximum of 30% decline in NCC. My hood reached about 20% and I have always beleived there is a chance for another 10% down.
I dont pretend to have all the answers countywide and could see crazy things happening in some of the more unstable areas like east county, south bay, north of 78 corridor etc which could make us hit that 10% down but I dont see it for areas bordered by 15 and the ocean as well as the 8 to 78 which I follow closest.
I will PM you the address of the property so you can see for yourself. I have nothing to hide personally but owe my clients privacy. Send me a PM saying you will respect our privacy and I will trust you then I will send you the address to see for yourself.
As for being a wuss, hardly. I make bets because I know I will win them. I took one from CAR already and am a lock for the 2nd.
As for being quite the bear, I was for a long time but now I see stability where as the permabear sit home praying for another big leg down.
May 16, 2011 at 5:09 PM #695750GuestOkay, so we’re really not that far off then. I call for a minimum of 10% drop (including NCC), and you think it could happen also. Back to the topic, the new GSE limits will DEFINITELY have an affect towards that 10%+ drop. The only thing that can stop that drop from happening is hyperinflation.
Instead of the property address, why don’t you just tell me the zip code. I’ll bet I can find examples of apples to apples property drops of more than 20%.
May 16, 2011 at 5:09 PM #695838GuestOkay, so we’re really not that far off then. I call for a minimum of 10% drop (including NCC), and you think it could happen also. Back to the topic, the new GSE limits will DEFINITELY have an affect towards that 10%+ drop. The only thing that can stop that drop from happening is hyperinflation.
Instead of the property address, why don’t you just tell me the zip code. I’ll bet I can find examples of apples to apples property drops of more than 20%.
May 16, 2011 at 5:09 PM #696437GuestOkay, so we’re really not that far off then. I call for a minimum of 10% drop (including NCC), and you think it could happen also. Back to the topic, the new GSE limits will DEFINITELY have an affect towards that 10%+ drop. The only thing that can stop that drop from happening is hyperinflation.
Instead of the property address, why don’t you just tell me the zip code. I’ll bet I can find examples of apples to apples property drops of more than 20%.
May 16, 2011 at 5:09 PM #696584GuestOkay, so we’re really not that far off then. I call for a minimum of 10% drop (including NCC), and you think it could happen also. Back to the topic, the new GSE limits will DEFINITELY have an affect towards that 10%+ drop. The only thing that can stop that drop from happening is hyperinflation.
Instead of the property address, why don’t you just tell me the zip code. I’ll bet I can find examples of apples to apples property drops of more than 20%.
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