Goodbye to San Diego

[gzz]

Here’s a thought experiment. Take a place in north park and Carmel Valley that are both worth $1.5 million right now.

Now think about what they would have cost in 1997.

Are you saying the NP property would have been more expensive than the CV property? Because that’s the implication of saying CV appreciated more than NP.

Here’s an example of what I am mean. A CV place that was $350k in 1997, now $1.1m though maybe it will go for more like 1.25.

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-NDP2103325-4885-Almondwood-Way-San-Diego-CA-92130

In gentrified areas, some similar places that are now worth $1.1+ would have been more like 100-250k back then.

[sdrealtor]

Horrible example. That is a house in poor condition and lousy location listed too low. Houses like that which were 350ish in 1997 and now in decent condition are 1.6 ish today maybe more. Stick to what you know

[sdrealtor]

Better example. This house twenty years ago around 400k is a completely different and re built home now.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/2636-33rd-St-92104/home/5392032?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

A house in CV was nearly’ new twenty years ago and substantially the same today

Here’s one in Encintas from twenty years ago and substantially the same house today. No gentrification here, I live nearby and it’s substantially the same neighborhood as it was then

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1804-Cottage-Grove-Dr-92024/home/4098580?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

[barnaby33]

Wait if you moved here 45 years ago to teach that means you’re in your 70s at least. Ominous trends? How long are you planning to live? California has severe issues none of which you mentioned, but man you are engaging in sophistry to a T.
Josh

[EconProf]

Barnaby, your math is correct, I am in my 70’s.
Ominous trends? Please explain how that is relevant.
Sophistry: “The use of fallacious arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving” according to google. Please explain, and as I used to tell my students, be specific. Show your work…

[Anonymous]

[quote=EconProf]A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity–the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. Now the left owns the state, government unions control K-12, the universities, and virtually all city, county, and state offices. Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. Which explains why CA population is actually shrinking of late in absolute terms. Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.[/quote]

Obviously the high cost of living, and specifically housing costs, is the main reason to leave California. But you are delusional if you think Politics, or specifically California left wing politics and taxes, are the major reason for high housing prices. I hear this argument all the time by typical Redneck types who like to use the tired “Commifornia” cliche. But the fact is, not nearly enough of you guys are leaving because overall population and housing costs keep going up (due to other reasons that apparently are too complicated for the Fox news set to understand).

[svelte]

[quote=EconProf]A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity–the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. [/quote]

If you moved here 45 years ago, that would have been 1976.

My father was an ultra-Republican who could not stand Democrats. In 1970, he moved us from the Midwest to northern California, in the central valley. He bought a 3/2 1500 SF house there for $21K. He became angrier and angrier at California politics and what he perceived as a poor school system, and kept talking about moving us back to the midwest (I was a teen in the 1970s).

In 1975, he did move my family back to the Midwest – to Oklahoma where he grew up. He sold the house in Northern California for about $25-26K I can’t remember that number exactly. OK is an ultra-Republican state and was ultra-Republican in the 1970s also.

Having attended both CA and OK schools, I can tell you I didn’t see much of a difference. Pretty similar to me.

By 1978, my Dad had had enough of Oklahoma. It wasn’t as good as he remembered and after just three years he moved the family back to the central valley in northern California, about 10 miles from where we had lived before. He lived out the rest of his life in that area and while he still grumbled about CA politics, he never even considered leaving CA again.

I just now checked: that house he bought in 1970 for $21K? Zillow says it is worth about $295K right now.

I guess what I’m saying is that making sweeping generalizations about California really doesn’t work. The central valley was Republican in the 1970s and is still Republican today. Housing prices haven’t went up nearly as much as the coast. In fact, they are right in line with the Midwest.

What you think of as ultra Liberal CA is really just the coast. When you go inland, CA is very Republican and not out of line with housing costs in the Midwest.

So you really didn’t have to move to Utah to get the lower costs and Republican neighbors. You could have stayed in CA. You chose the location mainly due to its proximity to your family – which is a very valid reason.

[o2addict]

Agree with Josh. More importantly, I can’t friggin’ wait to use sophistry in a sentence. Had to look it up. I like it.

[flyer]

EP, with your net worth, which, I’m sure is far, far, far greater than that of most Californians–regardless of age– you can easily choose to live wherever you wish–including anywhere in CA–but if you choose to go, for whatever reason(s), enjoy your wealth and your new life, with no justification necessary.

[scaredyclassic]

Its irritating beyond measure to be around a flock of trump supporters, like, i want to vomit, put distance between us, so if liberals make you feel like that, or even 50% of how irritated trumplovers make me feel, its best to separate from that type of idiocy and surround yourself with likeminded republicans who seem to still be trumploving americans.

[The-Shoveler]

Actually California has for been a Red state probably longer than a blue state, and has switched back and forth since I have been here.
Probably will again someday.

[sdrealtor]

One thing that always amazes me is how many who leave for financial reasons be it they can’t afford it here anymore or want a lower cost of living always seem to trash CA for some other reason. Just take it and like it!

[barnaby33]

As to ominous trends, I was referencing you:

Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.

Pure unadulterated unsupported sophistry.

Sophistry, something which could be true, but is false. Also my favorite GRE word! Never made it through grad school but did love learning that word for the GRE.

Now back to ominous, another cherished GRE word. The whole world is suffering ominous trends. Overpopulation, resource limits and our concerted attempts to do nothing about them are the issue. Also on an economic front the bifuraction of our economy into winner take all tech and everything else with low margins is a real issue. California relatively is in a great position. It still has rich soil, a good (again relatively) education system and attracts the best and brightest in droves. What we haven’t figured out how to do is share that equitably with those who aren’t best, brightest or both, without turning into a full on socialist fantasyland. If you want to leave, by all means do. Utah is physically GORGEOUS. It is however intellectually speaking the 8th level of hell. It attracts refugees from rich places like CA. Folks who extracted their wealth from CA and are then reviled for ruining it (aka driving up prices) for, “average folks.” Plus it doesn’t have much water, or industry; I realize that’s not important if you’re retiring. Whatever ominous trends exist here, Utah and satellite states will always suffer it worse. When the Colorado river water finally gives out, California will get the majority of it, why? Because it’s where the people, the intellect and the industrial capacity are.

At a more personal and fundamental level flyer is right you don’t have to justify yourself to me or anyone else. I have to say however this thread, given what little I know about you just screams scared old white person running from a changing world and thats sad. You are or were a professor and that implies (one would hope) a thinker. To uproot yourself from the life you have known for 45 years because you don’t like change just seems sad. This thread would have been much more positive if it’d started out with, we’re leaving to go to X,Y,Z, not running from A,B,Change….
Josh

[sdrealtor]

Josh it’s just the standard I’m leaving CA for my own personal reasons but hey it’s an opportunity to throw the state under the bus for the things that have always annoyed me. It’s like the annual articles by the mass media that people and businesses are leaving CA in droves. I laugh everytime I read them

[gzz]

>Stick to what you know

I have seen the data and do know. I picked a random example, and you say that’s a bad example and mispriced. But it would be easy for you to show me contrary examples.

Low end areas went up more than high end areas, that’s the case in both the current and prior bull markets as well as the very long term trend.

Areas that started medium-low and gentrified went up the most.

Sorry, the gentrified areas that used to have high crime and now are high end went up more than suburban areas that were always nice. That’s the case here, as well as LA and the Bay Area.

[Author]

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