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June 8, 2008 at 12:27 AM #219412June 8, 2008 at 1:42 AM #219443anParticipant
The EU has already said that they’re raising interest rate. So, not all countries will be lowering interest rate to match ours. The fed recently also stated that they’re for strong dollar and that could be a signal they’re done cutting rate and would start increasing them again. Then there’s the inflation factor. If fuel cost continue to leak into other part of the economy, I don’t see how inflation will subside without a rate hike. If the start to seriously raise rate, that will give strength to the dollar as well. Just my 2 pesos.
June 8, 2008 at 1:42 AM #219376anParticipantThe EU has already said that they’re raising interest rate. So, not all countries will be lowering interest rate to match ours. The fed recently also stated that they’re for strong dollar and that could be a signal they’re done cutting rate and would start increasing them again. Then there’s the inflation factor. If fuel cost continue to leak into other part of the economy, I don’t see how inflation will subside without a rate hike. If the start to seriously raise rate, that will give strength to the dollar as well. Just my 2 pesos.
June 8, 2008 at 1:42 AM #219281anParticipantThe EU has already said that they’re raising interest rate. So, not all countries will be lowering interest rate to match ours. The fed recently also stated that they’re for strong dollar and that could be a signal they’re done cutting rate and would start increasing them again. Then there’s the inflation factor. If fuel cost continue to leak into other part of the economy, I don’t see how inflation will subside without a rate hike. If the start to seriously raise rate, that will give strength to the dollar as well. Just my 2 pesos.
June 8, 2008 at 1:42 AM #219394anParticipantThe EU has already said that they’re raising interest rate. So, not all countries will be lowering interest rate to match ours. The fed recently also stated that they’re for strong dollar and that could be a signal they’re done cutting rate and would start increasing them again. Then there’s the inflation factor. If fuel cost continue to leak into other part of the economy, I don’t see how inflation will subside without a rate hike. If the start to seriously raise rate, that will give strength to the dollar as well. Just my 2 pesos.
June 8, 2008 at 1:42 AM #219423anParticipantThe EU has already said that they’re raising interest rate. So, not all countries will be lowering interest rate to match ours. The fed recently also stated that they’re for strong dollar and that could be a signal they’re done cutting rate and would start increasing them again. Then there’s the inflation factor. If fuel cost continue to leak into other part of the economy, I don’t see how inflation will subside without a rate hike. If the start to seriously raise rate, that will give strength to the dollar as well. Just my 2 pesos.
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http://www.cmcmarkets.com/us/en/content/index.jsp.June 8, 2008 at 6:36 AM #2194464plexownerParticipantIn addition to thinking carefully about your trading strategy, you might give some thought to the brokerage house you are using
Search in the archives and you will find threads about e-trade – they lost about 60% of their stock value this year due to mortgage lending and bad loans
If the economy continues to deteriorate as you expect, will e-trade survive as a brokerage house? What happens to your account / positions when e-trade declares BK and freezes access to all online accounts? One of the archived threads shows the verbiage in e-trade’s account agreements (that you signed if you have a trading account with them) that allows them to deny you access to your account at any time for any reason with no recourse on your part.
Several of the newsletters that I read are suggesting that 200 to 300 US banks will be failing in the next few years. There have been at least a few articles online and blog threads talking about the FDIC recruiting retired employees to handle these expected bank failures.
IMO, it is time to be very defensive with your assets. LOTS (think trillions of dollars) of paper wealth is going to evaporate in the next few years.
How much of that soon-to-evaporate paper will be yours?
Do you really trust your future to the guarantees of FDIC and SIPC? Ever heard of fractional reserve banking? FDIC and SIPC make the same assumption as the bankers do – ie, only a few people will ever make claims against the FDIC / SIPC guarantees at any one time so they only need to have assets equivalent to 2 or 3% of the amount being guaranteed.
In a real crisis situation (like 200 or 300 banks failing in a short timeframe), FDIC and SIPC will be overwhelmed. They will probably honor their guarantees but they are likely to do so with bonds that don’t mature for 5 or more years. These bonds will be trade-able on the open market but will likely trade at 60-70 cents on the dollar before maturity.
Check out the ‘investment pyramid’ that Adam Hamilton suggests for a bear market portfolio (http://www.zealllc.com/2002/bearport.htm) – note that gold and silver form the base of the pyramid – historically, as financial / economic risk increases, people move their money down the pyramid to avoid risk – this movement of smart money down the pyramid, along with some massive monetary debasement on a global scale, has caused silver to go from under $5 / oz to its current $17+ / oz and gold from under $500 / oz to its current $900’ish / oz price in this decade – as this movement continues, silver is going to $80 / oz and gold to $1500+ / oz
~
It just occurred to me that you are betting on the US dollar going down and yet, the US dollar is what you will be paid in when you close out your position. Any gain that you make will have to be discounted by the purchasing power lost to inflation … which is what you are betting on in the first place …
We are truly screwed as a nation as long as we allow a fiat currency and reserve banking to be shoved down our throats – ‘drink heavily’ seems like rather good advice this sunday am
June 8, 2008 at 6:36 AM #2194684plexownerParticipantIn addition to thinking carefully about your trading strategy, you might give some thought to the brokerage house you are using
Search in the archives and you will find threads about e-trade – they lost about 60% of their stock value this year due to mortgage lending and bad loans
If the economy continues to deteriorate as you expect, will e-trade survive as a brokerage house? What happens to your account / positions when e-trade declares BK and freezes access to all online accounts? One of the archived threads shows the verbiage in e-trade’s account agreements (that you signed if you have a trading account with them) that allows them to deny you access to your account at any time for any reason with no recourse on your part.
Several of the newsletters that I read are suggesting that 200 to 300 US banks will be failing in the next few years. There have been at least a few articles online and blog threads talking about the FDIC recruiting retired employees to handle these expected bank failures.
IMO, it is time to be very defensive with your assets. LOTS (think trillions of dollars) of paper wealth is going to evaporate in the next few years.
How much of that soon-to-evaporate paper will be yours?
Do you really trust your future to the guarantees of FDIC and SIPC? Ever heard of fractional reserve banking? FDIC and SIPC make the same assumption as the bankers do – ie, only a few people will ever make claims against the FDIC / SIPC guarantees at any one time so they only need to have assets equivalent to 2 or 3% of the amount being guaranteed.
In a real crisis situation (like 200 or 300 banks failing in a short timeframe), FDIC and SIPC will be overwhelmed. They will probably honor their guarantees but they are likely to do so with bonds that don’t mature for 5 or more years. These bonds will be trade-able on the open market but will likely trade at 60-70 cents on the dollar before maturity.
Check out the ‘investment pyramid’ that Adam Hamilton suggests for a bear market portfolio (http://www.zealllc.com/2002/bearport.htm) – note that gold and silver form the base of the pyramid – historically, as financial / economic risk increases, people move their money down the pyramid to avoid risk – this movement of smart money down the pyramid, along with some massive monetary debasement on a global scale, has caused silver to go from under $5 / oz to its current $17+ / oz and gold from under $500 / oz to its current $900’ish / oz price in this decade – as this movement continues, silver is going to $80 / oz and gold to $1500+ / oz
~
It just occurred to me that you are betting on the US dollar going down and yet, the US dollar is what you will be paid in when you close out your position. Any gain that you make will have to be discounted by the purchasing power lost to inflation … which is what you are betting on in the first place …
We are truly screwed as a nation as long as we allow a fiat currency and reserve banking to be shoved down our throats – ‘drink heavily’ seems like rather good advice this sunday am
June 8, 2008 at 6:36 AM #2193064plexownerParticipantIn addition to thinking carefully about your trading strategy, you might give some thought to the brokerage house you are using
Search in the archives and you will find threads about e-trade – they lost about 60% of their stock value this year due to mortgage lending and bad loans
If the economy continues to deteriorate as you expect, will e-trade survive as a brokerage house? What happens to your account / positions when e-trade declares BK and freezes access to all online accounts? One of the archived threads shows the verbiage in e-trade’s account agreements (that you signed if you have a trading account with them) that allows them to deny you access to your account at any time for any reason with no recourse on your part.
Several of the newsletters that I read are suggesting that 200 to 300 US banks will be failing in the next few years. There have been at least a few articles online and blog threads talking about the FDIC recruiting retired employees to handle these expected bank failures.
IMO, it is time to be very defensive with your assets. LOTS (think trillions of dollars) of paper wealth is going to evaporate in the next few years.
How much of that soon-to-evaporate paper will be yours?
Do you really trust your future to the guarantees of FDIC and SIPC? Ever heard of fractional reserve banking? FDIC and SIPC make the same assumption as the bankers do – ie, only a few people will ever make claims against the FDIC / SIPC guarantees at any one time so they only need to have assets equivalent to 2 or 3% of the amount being guaranteed.
In a real crisis situation (like 200 or 300 banks failing in a short timeframe), FDIC and SIPC will be overwhelmed. They will probably honor their guarantees but they are likely to do so with bonds that don’t mature for 5 or more years. These bonds will be trade-able on the open market but will likely trade at 60-70 cents on the dollar before maturity.
Check out the ‘investment pyramid’ that Adam Hamilton suggests for a bear market portfolio (http://www.zealllc.com/2002/bearport.htm) – note that gold and silver form the base of the pyramid – historically, as financial / economic risk increases, people move their money down the pyramid to avoid risk – this movement of smart money down the pyramid, along with some massive monetary debasement on a global scale, has caused silver to go from under $5 / oz to its current $17+ / oz and gold from under $500 / oz to its current $900’ish / oz price in this decade – as this movement continues, silver is going to $80 / oz and gold to $1500+ / oz
~
It just occurred to me that you are betting on the US dollar going down and yet, the US dollar is what you will be paid in when you close out your position. Any gain that you make will have to be discounted by the purchasing power lost to inflation … which is what you are betting on in the first place …
We are truly screwed as a nation as long as we allow a fiat currency and reserve banking to be shoved down our throats – ‘drink heavily’ seems like rather good advice this sunday am
June 8, 2008 at 6:36 AM #2194194plexownerParticipantIn addition to thinking carefully about your trading strategy, you might give some thought to the brokerage house you are using
Search in the archives and you will find threads about e-trade – they lost about 60% of their stock value this year due to mortgage lending and bad loans
If the economy continues to deteriorate as you expect, will e-trade survive as a brokerage house? What happens to your account / positions when e-trade declares BK and freezes access to all online accounts? One of the archived threads shows the verbiage in e-trade’s account agreements (that you signed if you have a trading account with them) that allows them to deny you access to your account at any time for any reason with no recourse on your part.
Several of the newsletters that I read are suggesting that 200 to 300 US banks will be failing in the next few years. There have been at least a few articles online and blog threads talking about the FDIC recruiting retired employees to handle these expected bank failures.
IMO, it is time to be very defensive with your assets. LOTS (think trillions of dollars) of paper wealth is going to evaporate in the next few years.
How much of that soon-to-evaporate paper will be yours?
Do you really trust your future to the guarantees of FDIC and SIPC? Ever heard of fractional reserve banking? FDIC and SIPC make the same assumption as the bankers do – ie, only a few people will ever make claims against the FDIC / SIPC guarantees at any one time so they only need to have assets equivalent to 2 or 3% of the amount being guaranteed.
In a real crisis situation (like 200 or 300 banks failing in a short timeframe), FDIC and SIPC will be overwhelmed. They will probably honor their guarantees but they are likely to do so with bonds that don’t mature for 5 or more years. These bonds will be trade-able on the open market but will likely trade at 60-70 cents on the dollar before maturity.
Check out the ‘investment pyramid’ that Adam Hamilton suggests for a bear market portfolio (http://www.zealllc.com/2002/bearport.htm) – note that gold and silver form the base of the pyramid – historically, as financial / economic risk increases, people move their money down the pyramid to avoid risk – this movement of smart money down the pyramid, along with some massive monetary debasement on a global scale, has caused silver to go from under $5 / oz to its current $17+ / oz and gold from under $500 / oz to its current $900’ish / oz price in this decade – as this movement continues, silver is going to $80 / oz and gold to $1500+ / oz
~
It just occurred to me that you are betting on the US dollar going down and yet, the US dollar is what you will be paid in when you close out your position. Any gain that you make will have to be discounted by the purchasing power lost to inflation … which is what you are betting on in the first place …
We are truly screwed as a nation as long as we allow a fiat currency and reserve banking to be shoved down our throats – ‘drink heavily’ seems like rather good advice this sunday am
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