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scaredyclassic.
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May 7, 2021 at 4:50 PM #821376May 7, 2021 at 5:08 PM #821377
Anonymous
Guest[quote=sdrealtor]
You know what’s funny. You had the opportunity of a lifetime. The crash we went through was so obvious to us here. Just the same in 2011 I proclaimed the worst was over on this site. It’s all here and I’ve not said one word I can’t document. But you Mr Permabear being here all along failed to shoot fish in a bucket like so many of us did but somehow think you’ll get yours next time. You can call me all the names you want and make all the accusations you want and I can prove you wrong. You’ve got no one to blame but yourself[/quote]Don’t call me Permabear. I don’t necessarily think home prices or asset prices are going to crash again to the same degree as 2008 and my investment portfolio is not betting either way. But I would definitely like for a crash as these super high Fed driven asset prices are primarily benefiting the elites and banker class which makes me sick and of course it is causing outrageous distortions in the housing markets which is particularly hurting young and lower income families.
Not sure what “bets” you are referring but I certainly bet on the last crash, made a small fortune shorting the subprime mortgage companies, that was like shooting fish in a barrel back in 07. I don’t have the same confidence to short this market, too risky at my age now. But with this big of a speculative bubble history says these never end without pain.
May 7, 2021 at 5:33 PM #821379Guest[quote=sdrealtor] you’ll never win with that negative attitude.
[/quote]Why is wanting prices to go down a “Negative Attitude”? Yes I want middle income and young people to be able to afford a house. I also don’t like neighborhoods being bought up by foreign investors and hedge funds. Neither of these things are desirable or good for the Country in my opinion.
May 7, 2021 at 5:33 PM #821380Guest[quote=sdrealtor]
May 7, 2021 at 5:37 PM #821378sdrealtor
ParticipantOne simple question. How much real estate did you buy between 2009 and now in SD?
They have a funny saying in the wine world. The best way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one
Read the links I posted, its all there and 15 years later my story has not changed. Then you can post the apologies
May 7, 2021 at 5:38 PM #821381
CoronitaParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]
In 2004 I told everyone that would listen we were in for severe pain over the next decade but long term beyond that I was a raging bull. In early 2008 I left a major brokerage and set up a small boutique firm with an attorney. We predicted it would be short sales not foreclosures that would solve this. I personally did over 150 short sales the first of which closed in mid 2008. The “short sale experts” that came next and were all over TV/radio were calling us daily to learn how and what we were doing.
[/quote]Yeah, I think there was about 6 short sales I had a shot at, but only jumped on some of them… I recall at times quibbling over $1500-3000 above what I wanted to pay, and there was this one in Rancho Bernardo quibbling over a clogged garbage disposal resulting from someone throwing a planter down the drain……I remember you telling me that in the long run, $1500-3000 isn’t going to make a difference…Still, I was petty enough to back out over $1500-3000.Boy was that stupid.
May 7, 2021 at 5:39 PM #821382Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] you’ll never win with that negative attitude.
[/quote]Why is wanting prices to go down a “Negative Attitude”? Yes I want middle income and young people to be able to afford a house. I also don’t like neighborhoods being bought up by foreign investors and hedge funds. Neither of these things are desirable or good for the Country in my opinion.[/quote]
Now you are making sh*t up. Neighborhoods around here are not being bought up by foreign investors or hedge funds. You still have not answered the question.
How much real estate did you buy in SD between 2009 and now?
May 7, 2021 at 5:48 PM #821383Guest[quote=sdrealtor]
Now you are making sh*t up. Neighborhoods around here are not being bought up by foreign investors or hedge funds. You still have not answered the question.
[/quote]
Where do you think the all cash offers for million dollar plus homes have been coming from these past few years?
My personal participation in real estate is irrelevant to this discussion but it is clear your only purpose on this board is to pat yourself on the back.May 7, 2021 at 6:01 PM #821384
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdrealtor]I suspect you are lazy so I’ll give you the cliff notes version. Spot one! No one on this site came close to how accurate mine were.
[/quote][quote=sdrealtor]You are so wrong it’s laughable. Not only did I predict it but I placed bets on how it would play out. That I won and I can link to on this website. I predicted 30% worst case scenario and likely less along the NCC. The actual bottom was just short of 25% here.
[/quote]Sounds like you nailed NCC, but SD-wide single family home prices were down 42% per Case-Shiller. Condos were down a lot more than that – I only have pr/sqft for condos, not a quality-adjusted index like CS, but that was down 56%.
If your prediction had been 30% decline best guess, I’d say that would have been a bit low but in the ballpark. However, a prediction of a 30% worst case scenario — followed by an actual decline of 42% for single familly and 50%+ for condos — seems like a pretty wide miss.
Perhaps I am misunderstanding what you meant what you said that you predicted 30% worst case. But taken at face value, this doesn’t sound like a particularly good prediction. At very least, I think you may not be a lock for “Spot one! No one on this site came close to how accurate mine were.”
May 7, 2021 at 6:10 PM #821385ParticipantMy 30% prediction was very clearly stated for the NCC worst case. My personal home peaked at around $950K before the downturn. In 2009 I had the pleasure of purchasing 1/2 of it back at the bottom based upon an absolute bottom price of $725K. The math puts that at 23.7% decline and my home is nothing special and very typical of the area. I said the outlying areas would get hit much harder. Pigg poster Bugs postulated his butterfly theory which said eventually all areas would get hit evenly. Most posters subscribed to that and in particular sdude will remember he was a big fan of that. I proclaimed it was absolute hogwash and it was.
May 7, 2021 at 6:22 PM #821386Rich ToscanoKeymasterAh gotcha… I thought you were saying your prediction was for SD as a whole.
May 7, 2021 at 7:00 PM #821387scaredyclassic
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano]Ah gotcha… I thought you were saying your prediction was for SD as a whole.[/quote]
It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
Yogi BerraMay 7, 2021 at 7:15 PM #821388CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] you’ll never win with that negative attitude.
[/quote]Why is wanting prices to go down a “Negative Attitude”? Yes I want middle income and young people to be able to afford a house. I also don’t like neighborhoods being bought up by foreign investors and hedge funds. Neither of these things are desirable or good for the Country in my opinion.[/quote]
The only thing foreign about these recent buyers are they are from other parts of the US where the cost of living is higher. A lot of people trying to buy houses here lately are bay area and LA people who now have the option to work remotely. My latest tenant is a relocation from LA. They currently pay $5000 to live in a condo nesr culver city. They will be paying me the same amount to live in something with more than double the sq ft with access to way better schools. Both will be working remotely.
May 7, 2021 at 7:23 PM #821389Guest[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] you’ll never win with that negative attitude.
[/quote]Why is wanting prices to go down a “Negative Attitude”? Yes I want middle income and young people to be able to afford a house. I also don’t like neighborhoods being bought up by foreign investors and hedge funds. Neither of these things are desirable or good for the Country in my opinion.[/quote]
The only thing foreign about these recent buyers are they are from other parts of the US where the cost of living is higher. A lot of people trying to buy houses here lately are bay area and LA people who now have the option to work remotely. My latest tenant is a relocation from LA. They currently pay $5000 to live in a condo nesr culver city. They will be paying me the same amount to live in something with more than double the sq ft with access to way better schools. Both will be working remotely.[/quote]
Perhaps, but you mentioned yourself sometime abo that Carmel Valley was being bought up by Chinese money. And regarding people moving here from “more expensive places in US” in reality there are very few places in the US with higher housing costs than San Diego, Bay Area being the most obvious.
May 7, 2021 at 7:24 PM #821390Guest[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] you’ll never win with that negative attitude.
[/quote]Why is wanting prices to go down a “Negative Attitude”? Yes I want middle income and young people to be able to afford a house. I also don’t like neighborhoods being bought up by foreign investors and hedge funds. Neither of these things are desirable or good for the Country in my opinion.[/quote]
The only thing foreign about these recent buyers are they are from other parts of the US where the cost of living is higher. A lot of people trying to buy houses here lately are bay area and LA people who now have the option to work remotely. My latest tenant is a relocation from LA. They currently pay $5000 to live in a condo nesr culver city. They will be paying me the same amount to live in something with more than double the sq ft with access to way better schools. Both will be working remotely.[/quote]
Perhaps, but you mentioned yourself sometime ago that Carmel Valley was being bought up by Chinese money. And regarding people moving here from “more expensive places in US” in reality there are very few places in the US with higher housing costs than San Diego, Bay Area being the most obvious.[/quote]
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