Forbes: Beware Of A Double-Dip Recession

[socrattt]

sdr, I am thinking the argument here isn’t so much that the FED is in control of the RE markets, but that the FED does have some control over inventory, whether direct or indirect. Those who now believe that our politicians are here to benefit the people and that are economic system has some sort of stability are the ones wearing the tin foil hats these days. It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

I went to a luncheon with Steve Forbes last week and had a chance to hear his take on the US economy. He was a pessimist to say the least. He thought we were heading down a very grim road in many aspects.

I am not as much a conspiracy theorist as I am a realist. We, as Americans, are programmed to spend, which is the driving force of this economy. This in itself is very problematic for our current economic status. Unless we make some major changes in this country I don’t believe America can remain sustainable from an economic standpoint. If this deserves a tin foil hat, sign me up!!

[outtamojo]

[quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : (

[outtamojo]

[quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : (

[outtamojo]

[quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : (

[outtamojo]

[quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : (

[outtamojo]

[quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : (

[socrattt]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : ([/quote]

As the saying goes:

YOU ARE DAMNED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON’T

[socrattt]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : ([/quote]

As the saying goes:

YOU ARE DAMNED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON’T

[socrattt]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : ([/quote]

As the saying goes:

YOU ARE DAMNED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON’T

[socrattt]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : ([/quote]

As the saying goes:

YOU ARE DAMNED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON’T

[socrattt]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=socrattt] It’s not a conspiracy theory to think the FED manipulates just about every sector that interferes or affects lending and the value of the dollar. It’s fact.

[/quote]

…and not for the benefit of the commoner. At one time I agreed w/ most of the conspiracy theorists- still do actually, but I got a family to feed and decided I should just do the best for my hungry kids and vote in every election rather than get all riled up about stuff I can’t control which unfortunately, is probably just what the powers that be want : ([/quote]

As the saying goes:

YOU ARE DAMNED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON’T

[JC]

http://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf

CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.

Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:

The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:

Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pike

[JC]

http://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf

CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.

Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:

The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:

Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pike

[JC]

http://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf

CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.

Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:

The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:

Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pike

[JC]

http://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf

CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.

Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:

The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:

Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pike

[Author]

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