Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › DOW rockets in the final hours. Are Boom times back?
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February 23, 2008 at 10:08 AM #158581February 23, 2008 at 4:17 PM #158472Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipant
No worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.
It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.
Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.
I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.
For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.
February 23, 2008 at 4:17 PM #158764Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantNo worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.
It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.
Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.
I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.
For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.
February 23, 2008 at 4:17 PM #158775Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantNo worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.
It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.
Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.
I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.
For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.
February 23, 2008 at 4:17 PM #158783Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantNo worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.
It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.
Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.
I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.
For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.
February 23, 2008 at 4:17 PM #158856Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantNo worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.
It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.
Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.
I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.
For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.
February 23, 2008 at 5:29 PM #158528LA_RenterParticipantI’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this
“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44
Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.
February 23, 2008 at 5:29 PM #158818LA_RenterParticipantI’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this
“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44
Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.
February 23, 2008 at 5:29 PM #158829LA_RenterParticipantI’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this
“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44
Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.
February 23, 2008 at 5:29 PM #158839LA_RenterParticipantI’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this
“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44
Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.
February 23, 2008 at 5:29 PM #158911LA_RenterParticipantI’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this
“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44
Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.
February 23, 2008 at 5:39 PM #158538barnaby33ParticipantChris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.
Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.
Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.
The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.
Josh
February 23, 2008 at 5:39 PM #158828barnaby33ParticipantChris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.
Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.
Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.
The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.
Josh
February 23, 2008 at 5:39 PM #158840barnaby33ParticipantChris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.
Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.
Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.
The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.
Josh
February 23, 2008 at 5:39 PM #158850barnaby33ParticipantChris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.
Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.
Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.
The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.
Josh
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