could it be …

[SD Realtor]

We may be reaching an inflection point. This is a very speculative statement and certainly not encompassing for the county but some indicators are starting to go off.

Starting with trustee sales for which we attend alot of them. The bidding is completely out of control. We have been playing our cards tightly and get outbid on most everything we see. So there are alot of flippers now owning homes at what I deem, to be very very slim margins.

The 90 day seasoning rule is sometimes off and sometimes on depending on the day of the week. For FHA it was off as of February but MOST all lenders put an overlay in place and that screws flippers trying to get FHA buyers.

Seller psychology has completely flip flopped. With the press telling us how the housing market has turned around and our govt espousing the economy has turned the corner, sellers are now pricing with fairly unrealistic expectations. Indeed someone posted a few weeks back about inventory growth and I am seeing it. The telltale signs of active/pending ratios that we saw in 06 are indeed starting to grow FOR CERTAIN AREAS. Mainly though I am seeing very unrealistic pricing and those homes will not sell and no way do I see them appraising.

So don’t all do cartwheels yet. In many many many submarkets the craziness does indeed persist. It is a tough call at the moment. The derivative is definitely decreasing so we need to sit and wait. I think we will have a more definitive picture come July/Augus.

Still this is worth noting. Of course for high end stuff nothing has changed. However for mid range and starter stuff I think pricing is starting to hurt buyers as rich pointed out in his latest post.

[outtamojo]

Look at how the mortgage insurers have been running,PMI,RDN,MTG. On the commercial side,
“The NYC Office Market Has Bottomed” http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yahoo_bd.jsp?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=ecf5f8a1a2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_yahoo%2Frmoney%2Fmarketcommentary%2F10717691.html

Also, left for dead Orange County Commercial reit MPG has had a nice run.

[outtamojo]

Look at how the mortgage insurers have been running,PMI,RDN,MTG. On the commercial side,
“The NYC Office Market Has Bottomed” http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yahoo_bd.jsp?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=ecf5f8a1a2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_yahoo%2Frmoney%2Fmarketcommentary%2F10717691.html

Also, left for dead Orange County Commercial reit MPG has had a nice run.

[outtamojo]

Look at how the mortgage insurers have been running,PMI,RDN,MTG. On the commercial side,
“The NYC Office Market Has Bottomed” http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yahoo_bd.jsp?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=ecf5f8a1a2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_yahoo%2Frmoney%2Fmarketcommentary%2F10717691.html

Also, left for dead Orange County Commercial reit MPG has had a nice run.

[outtamojo]

Look at how the mortgage insurers have been running,PMI,RDN,MTG. On the commercial side,
“The NYC Office Market Has Bottomed” http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yahoo_bd.jsp?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=ecf5f8a1a2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_yahoo%2Frmoney%2Fmarketcommentary%2F10717691.html

Also, left for dead Orange County Commercial reit MPG has had a nice run.

[outtamojo]

Look at how the mortgage insurers have been running,PMI,RDN,MTG. On the commercial side,
“The NYC Office Market Has Bottomed” http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yahoo_bd.jsp?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=ecf5f8a1a2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_yahoo%2Frmoney%2Fmarketcommentary%2F10717691.html

Also, left for dead Orange County Commercial reit MPG has had a nice run.

[livinincali]

It’s been previous obvious to me as a casual observer that the typically middle class markets are seeing a pretty significant increase in inventory (92126- Mira Mesa went from <100 units in the middle of last summer to 180+ now), but inventory increase is kind of expected during this time of year. You are seeing the signs of flipper type properties just based on the listing comments. Flipper properties often tend to have those catchy marketing phrases that bank owned, short sales, and organic properties don't necessary have (dream house, won't last long, upgraded....).

I think it will be interesting to see what happens as the tax credit expires and interest rates move up. The 10 year treasury just hit 4% again today and the fed is supposedly done with Quantitative Easing for the time being. If I was playing the flipping game I'd probably step away for a bit based on what I've heard. Maybe wait for things to settle down a bit and try again in Oct-Dec 2010 for spring 2011. This spring/summer might not act like the typical market at least in the low end/middle. That fringe middle/low end buyer probably sits out until next spring if they don't get in by the end of April. If they can't stretch it to get $8,000 right now they wait for inventory and prices to improve.

[livinincali]

It’s been previous obvious to me as a casual observer that the typically middle class markets are seeing a pretty significant increase in inventory (92126- Mira Mesa went from <100 units in the middle of last summer to 180+ now), but inventory increase is kind of expected during this time of year. You are seeing the signs of flipper type properties just based on the listing comments. Flipper properties often tend to have those catchy marketing phrases that bank owned, short sales, and organic properties don't necessary have (dream house, won't last long, upgraded....).

I think it will be interesting to see what happens as the tax credit expires and interest rates move up. The 10 year treasury just hit 4% again today and the fed is supposedly done with Quantitative Easing for the time being. If I was playing the flipping game I'd probably step away for a bit based on what I've heard. Maybe wait for things to settle down a bit and try again in Oct-Dec 2010 for spring 2011. This spring/summer might not act like the typical market at least in the low end/middle. That fringe middle/low end buyer probably sits out until next spring if they don't get in by the end of April. If they can't stretch it to get $8,000 right now they wait for inventory and prices to improve.

[livinincali]

It’s been previous obvious to me as a casual observer that the typically middle class markets are seeing a pretty significant increase in inventory (92126- Mira Mesa went from <100 units in the middle of last summer to 180+ now), but inventory increase is kind of expected during this time of year. You are seeing the signs of flipper type properties just based on the listing comments. Flipper properties often tend to have those catchy marketing phrases that bank owned, short sales, and organic properties don't necessary have (dream house, won't last long, upgraded....).

I think it will be interesting to see what happens as the tax credit expires and interest rates move up. The 10 year treasury just hit 4% again today and the fed is supposedly done with Quantitative Easing for the time being. If I was playing the flipping game I'd probably step away for a bit based on what I've heard. Maybe wait for things to settle down a bit and try again in Oct-Dec 2010 for spring 2011. This spring/summer might not act like the typical market at least in the low end/middle. That fringe middle/low end buyer probably sits out until next spring if they don't get in by the end of April. If they can't stretch it to get $8,000 right now they wait for inventory and prices to improve.

[livinincali]

It’s been previous obvious to me as a casual observer that the typically middle class markets are seeing a pretty significant increase in inventory (92126- Mira Mesa went from <100 units in the middle of last summer to 180+ now), but inventory increase is kind of expected during this time of year. You are seeing the signs of flipper type properties just based on the listing comments. Flipper properties often tend to have those catchy marketing phrases that bank owned, short sales, and organic properties don't necessary have (dream house, won't last long, upgraded....).

I think it will be interesting to see what happens as the tax credit expires and interest rates move up. The 10 year treasury just hit 4% again today and the fed is supposedly done with Quantitative Easing for the time being. If I was playing the flipping game I'd probably step away for a bit based on what I've heard. Maybe wait for things to settle down a bit and try again in Oct-Dec 2010 for spring 2011. This spring/summer might not act like the typical market at least in the low end/middle. That fringe middle/low end buyer probably sits out until next spring if they don't get in by the end of April. If they can't stretch it to get $8,000 right now they wait for inventory and prices to improve.

[livinincali]

It’s been previous obvious to me as a casual observer that the typically middle class markets are seeing a pretty significant increase in inventory (92126- Mira Mesa went from <100 units in the middle of last summer to 180+ now), but inventory increase is kind of expected during this time of year. You are seeing the signs of flipper type properties just based on the listing comments. Flipper properties often tend to have those catchy marketing phrases that bank owned, short sales, and organic properties don't necessary have (dream house, won't last long, upgraded....).

I think it will be interesting to see what happens as the tax credit expires and interest rates move up. The 10 year treasury just hit 4% again today and the fed is supposedly done with Quantitative Easing for the time being. If I was playing the flipping game I'd probably step away for a bit based on what I've heard. Maybe wait for things to settle down a bit and try again in Oct-Dec 2010 for spring 2011. This spring/summer might not act like the typical market at least in the low end/middle. That fringe middle/low end buyer probably sits out until next spring if they don't get in by the end of April. If they can't stretch it to get $8,000 right now they wait for inventory and prices to improve.

[waiting hawk]

The baby could was still sleeping when we pulled up to the house today in Alta Loma (rancho Cucamonga horse property) and we pulled out the garage and drove around like WE USED TO IN 05 through 09 lol. I seen a bunch of foreclosures with the stickers in the windows but not on the mls. There is another leg down 100% comming here as the are a few new houses posted on the mls in the 300k’s. Look out below out here.

[waiting hawk]

The baby could was still sleeping when we pulled up to the house today in Alta Loma (rancho Cucamonga horse property) and we pulled out the garage and drove around like WE USED TO IN 05 through 09 lol. I seen a bunch of foreclosures with the stickers in the windows but not on the mls. There is another leg down 100% comming here as the are a few new houses posted on the mls in the 300k’s. Look out below out here.

[waiting hawk]

The baby could was still sleeping when we pulled up to the house today in Alta Loma (rancho Cucamonga horse property) and we pulled out the garage and drove around like WE USED TO IN 05 through 09 lol. I seen a bunch of foreclosures with the stickers in the windows but not on the mls. There is another leg down 100% comming here as the are a few new houses posted on the mls in the 300k’s. Look out below out here.

[waiting hawk]

The baby could was still sleeping when we pulled up to the house today in Alta Loma (rancho Cucamonga horse property) and we pulled out the garage and drove around like WE USED TO IN 05 through 09 lol. I seen a bunch of foreclosures with the stickers in the windows but not on the mls. There is another leg down 100% comming here as the are a few new houses posted on the mls in the 300k’s. Look out below out here.

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