Coronavirus Endgame

[Coronita]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-amd-theyre-operating-near-195156547.html

Looks like CPU chip industry operating at full capacity, guessing lists of people buying computers now they need to work from home.

[bibsoconner]

The original post asked for “rigor” and “thoughtfulness”. Here’s my attempt at that:

It all ends sooner than people expected. The world returns to normal. The markets recover. Slowly but surely, unemployment goes down. A concerted effort by the world’s nations is made to monitor for outbreaks of new diseases. The only unexplained phenomena is that for 2 months or so there is a rash of toilet papering houses the likes of which the world has never seen before. It’s as if millions of people suddenly found themselves in possession of more toilet paper than they could possibly use in lifetime.

[Coronita]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/pelosi-s-2-5-trillion-virus-bill-delays-mortgage-car-payments

So here’s a question. Do you think our government should provide a moratorium on mortgages during this virus or not?

If so, how is this different than back during the housing crisis of 2009 many piggs were saying we should just let people lose their homes who can’t make mortgage payments?

Personally, imho this time is different in that many people could not “prevent” this thing from happening and it wasn’t an issue about moral hazard. So if that’s the case, I don’t anticipate a sudden wave of panic selling, except maybe in places where the recovery would take longer than average.

That, our everyone sues China. They have money :).

[sdduuuude]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=sdduuuude]I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don’t really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.[/quote]

The best map by a Johns Hopkins professor, and her grad student who’s in China.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map-faq.html%5B/quote%5D

That is exactly the chart I don’t want to see – showing absolute numbers. It makes it look like the entire US is sick when, in fact it is only one hundredth of one percent and the circle from New York encompases 10 other states. It looks like someone’s first time using Tableau.

I don’t assume that more densely populated areas would look worse on a percentage basis – which is why I want to see it on a percentage basis. San Diego seems in good shape, but how are we compared to other cities with our population density ? I wish I knew.

South of the equator looking to be in good shape – is it weather ? Or limited contact with China and Italy ?

[sdduuuude]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/pelosi-s-2-5-trillion-virus-bill-delays-mortgage-car-payments

So here’s a question. Do you think our government should provide a moratorium on mortgages during this virus or not?

If so, how is this different than back during the housing crisis of 2009 many piggs were saying we should just let people lose their homes who can’t make mortgage payments?

Personally, imho this time is different in that many people could not “prevent” this thing from happening and it wasn’t an issue about moral hazard. So if that’s the case, I don’t anticipate a sudden wave of panic selling, except maybe in places where the recovery would take longer than average.

That, our everyone sues China. They have money :).[/quote]

Banks don’t want to get a bunch of property in their portfolio now. They would be wise to do this on their own. Cal Coast Credit union sent us an email last week telling us we didn’t have to pay on our car loan for 60 days and there would be no interest accrued.

Maybe PMI kicks in for those who have it ? Not sure. I don’t have it.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=sdduuuude]
I don’t assume that more densely populated areas would look worse on a percentage basis – which is why I want to see it on a percentage basis.

South of the equator looking to be in good shape – is it weather ? Or limited contact with China and Italy ?[/quote]

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use “chloroquine”.

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.

[ltsddd]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/pelosi-s-2-5-trillion-virus-bill-delays-mortgage-car-payments

So here’s a question. Do you think our government should provide a moratorium on mortgages during this virus or not?

If so, how is this different than back during the housing crisis of 2009 many piggs were saying we should just let people lose their homes who can’t make mortgage payments?

Personally, imho this time is different in that many people could not “prevent” this thing from happening and it wasn’t an issue about moral hazard. So if that’s the case, I don’t anticipate a sudden wave of panic selling, except maybe in places where the recovery would take longer than average.

That, our everyone sues China. They have money :).[/quote]

Yes. I agree that this is a different scenario. If big banks are getting a stimulus package b/c of the coronavirus, it should be attached with the condition that the average joes should also benefit from it in the form of payment deferment. In the near term this is how I see it’s going to play out:

– stock markets are going to go side-way, but once the virus is “dealt” with it will be a quick recovery (the small potatoes are probably screwed but the warren buffetts and ackmans of the world will swoop in for the deep discounts)

– employment is going to be bad. If companies feel the need to lay off people then it’ll take them some time to stabilize to start growing again. My guess is it’s going to be bad for the next 2 years or so?

– housing will see a down tick. This virus not only inflict major damage to the world’s economies but also to the psychology of the people. Once this is over, people will be hoarding cash.

I am feeling a lot more optimistic today than a few weeks ago now that our gov’t (fed, state and locally) finally shows some leadership.

[Coronita]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use “chloroquine”.

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.[/quote]

DeSantis is taking a lot of heat for his lighter approach.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/24/dumbest-s-desantis-takes-heat-as-he-goes-his-own-way-on-coronavirus-1268818

[FlyerInHi]

Duplicate

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use “chloroquine”.

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.[/quote]

DeSantis is taking a lot of heat for his lighter approach.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/24/dumbest-s-desantis-takes-heat-as-he-goes-his-own-way-on-coronavirus-1268818%5B/quote%5D

A Lot of people say we had coronavirus in SoCal since January so it will be interesting to see how Florida plays out.

We are not NYC
The majority of people do not jump on a bus/subway etc.. with 30-50 people on it everyday

[FlyerInHi]

Well, San Diego closed the parks this morning. I went for a little run anyway…..

Boris Johnson caved and issued lockdown orders. We will see if Florida and the other states will resist.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use “chloroquine”.

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.[/quote]

DeSantis is taking a lot of heat for his lighter approach.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/24/dumbest-s-desantis-takes-heat-as-he-goes-his-own-way-on-coronavirus-1268818%5B/quote%5D

A Lot of people say we had coronavirus in SoCal since January so it will be interesting to see how Florida plays out.

We are not NYC
The majority of people do not jump on a bus/subway etc.. with 30-50 people on it everyday[/quote]

Time will tell. CA and WA first in, first out. Not much you can do except trying to avoid getting sick at the same time everyone else is. And when you do get sick, be as prepared with what you need

[sdduuuude]

San Diego has broken out of the exponential curve.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/liveblog/coronavirus-live-updates-march-23

[Coronita]

[quote=sdduuuude]San Diego has broken out of the exponential curve.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/liveblog/coronavirus-live-updates-march-23%5B/quote%5D

Let us hope that. Let’s hope that we don’t end up like NYC
I suspect we won’t due to a number of reasons, but time will tell.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/amp/NY-has-10-times-the-coronavirus-cases-CA-has-Why-15154692.php

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