Coronavirus Endgame

[outtamojo]

[quote=The-Shoveler]In LA the big surge never came, they have at least 1000 empty beds.[/quote]

A good proactive program always leaves one wondering if it was really necessary.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=spdrun]Do you really want to get in a car crash when hospitals are filled to the brim with COVID patients?[/quote]

I don’t want to get in a car crash at any time.

[outtamojo]

Preliminary antibody results from population study.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

Looks like we’ll have to multiply confirmed cases by 50-85 !

[spdrun]

If that’s the case for NY state, that means that 50 to 85% of the state has been exposed, since testing has uncovered about 1% positives for virus. Strangely, I find that plausible since 15% of pregnant women coming into one hospital were testing positive for active infection, with more likely infected in the past and no longer shedding viral RNA…

If serology shows this, we likely distanced too late, but hindsight is 20/20.

[phaster]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdduuuude][quote=phaster]upon reading (what caught my eye) what came to mind was an editorial cartoon

[/quote]

The depression doesn’t come from what they have to do, it comes from what was taken from them – the collective graduation that they have been working for and looking forward to their whole lives. In a sense, it is their life. I think this cartoon doesn’t apply to those HS seniors at all. Maybe to young adults who complaining about how awful their situation is, but not to a depressed HS Senior. That is not fair by any means. [/quote]

P.S. Two teen suicides this weekend in San Diego county. They weren’t reported but we got emails that two teens died but details were being being withheld to protect the families. That usually means suicide. For teens in San Diego, the death rate from the cure is higher than the death rate from the virus.[/quote]

the idea I was trying to point out requires acceptance AND understanding of the BIG PICTURE which is very difficult given human nature

[quote]
The Ostrich Effect (HIDDEN BRAIN podcast)

…Information aversion is one of many, many domains where human behavior seems to deviate from the models of economists. Instead of doing the rational thing, learning as much as possible about something, many of us do the opposite. We stick our heads in the sand. And this is true for more than just financial information.

…The bigger the potential good news, the more likely volunteers were to pay. The studies show that people are hungry for information when information is pleasant.

…just as the researchers had expected, volunteers were more likely to pay money to avoid getting highly unpleasant information

…Another thing the researchers found – students who were in a good mood were more likely to avoid information than those in a bad mood. This may seem surprising, but it actually makes complete sense. When you’re in a good mood, do you really want to ruin how you feel

http://www.npr.org/2018/08/06/636133086/you-2-0-the-ostrich-effect
[/quote]

[quote]
Virus Shows Why There Won’t Be Global Action on Climate Change

COVID-19 reveals three reasons why fighting climate change is so hard.

First, stopping the spread of this highly contagious disease requires that we all upend our daily lives in dramatic ways—and often do so for the benefit of others.

The second sobering lesson from COVID-19 for climate change efforts is the importance of public buy-in and education. The problems of collective action described above are less acute when the public broadly understands the gravity of the threat.

The third reason COVID-19 should give pause to expectations about climate change action is because of what it reveals about the strong link between carbon emissions and economic activity.

…the pandemic is a reminder of just how wicked a problem climate change is because it requires collective action, public understanding and buy-in, and decarbonizing the energy mix while supporting economic growth and energy use around the world.

Sorry, but the Virus Shows Why There Won’t Be Global Action on Climate Change

[/quote]

[quote]
Pollution declines from pandemic shutdowns may aid in answering long-standing questions about how aerosols influence climate

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-could-help-solve-climate-riddles/
[/quote]

the pandemic is a wakeup call for people to accept the scientific fact(s) that climate change is a big problem that needs to be addressed head on!!!

basically when times are good people don’t want to hear bad news because they don’t want anything to kill their happy mood BUT when people are in a bad mood they might be more willing to listen and have an open mind about unsettling news (and take action to avoid the fermi-paradox)

[quote]
There’s a compelling reason scientists think we’ve never found aliens, and it suggests humans are already going extinct

Unchecked climate change would eventually lead to widespread devastation on Earth.

Rising seas would inundate coastal cities like Miami, searing heat would increase human mortality, and acidic oceans would become inhospitable to fish and coral, leaving behind little but rubbery masses of jellyfish.

These consequences of human activity could be the thing that prevents our civilization from advancing much further. In a particularly extreme scenario, it could even wind up wiping us from the face of the Earth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-great-filter-fermi-paradox-aliens-2017-7
[/quote]

WRT the local existential threat (that is going to really impact quality of life in the san diego area)

[quote]
Climate change: US megadrought ‘already under way’
16 April 2020

A drought, equal to the worst to have hit the western US in recorded history, is already under way, say scientists.

Researchers say the megadrought is a naturally occurring event that started in the year 2000 and is still ongoing.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52312260
[/quote]

https://www.piggington.com/so_much_rain#comment-288116

[quote]
Air Pollution Can Prevent Rainfall
March 14, 2000

Urban and industrial air pollution can stifle rain and snowfall, a new study shows, because the pollution particles prevent cloud water from condensing into raindrops and snowflakes.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/03/000314065455.htm
[/quote]

[quote]
More pollution, less rain
DECEMBER 4, 2019

Emissions from Asian slums could be a contributory factor in changing weather patterns, according to work published in the International Journal of Environment and Pollution, perhaps leading to worsening windspeeds, but less rainfall.

https://phys.org/news/2019-12-pollution.html
[/quote]

PS FWIW given earth day is next wed (april 22, 2020)

[quote]
Why Doesn’t Everyone Believe Humans Are Causing Climate Change?

…Climate illiteracy isn’t just limited to the general public, either. Ranney recalls a scientist’s presentation at a recent conference which said that many university professors teaching global warming barely had a better understanding of its mechanism than the undergraduates they were teaching. “Even one of the most highly-cited climate change communicators in the world didn’t know the mechanism over dinner,” he says.

…When Ranney surveyed 270 visitors to a San Diego park on how global warming works, he found that exactly zero could provide the proper mechanism.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/climate-change-acceptance/ http://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tops.12187
[/quote]

[quote]
Most Teachers Don’t Teach Climate Change; 4 In 5 Parents Wish They Did

More than 80% of parents in the U.S. support the teaching of climate change. And that support crosses political divides, according to the results of an exclusive new NPR/Ipsos poll: Whether they have children or not, two-thirds of Republicans and 9 in 10 Democrats agree that the subject needs to be taught in school.

A separate poll of teachers found that they are even more supportive, in theory — 86% agree that climate change should be taught.

These polls are among the first to gauge public and teacher opinion on how climate change should be taught to the generation that in the coming years will face its intensifying consequences: children.

http://www.npr.org/2019/04/22/714262267/most-teachers-dont-teach-climate-change-4-in-5-parents-wish-they-did
[/quote]

[zk]

[quote=sdduuuude]
Two teen suicides this weekend in San Diego county. They weren’t reported but we got emails that two teens died but details were being being withheld to protect the families. That usually means suicide. For teens in San Diego, the death rate from the cure is higher than the death rate from the virus.[/quote]

Not sure why you’d state that as fact. You’ve made the massive assumption that both of those deaths were, in fact, suicides and that both suicides were a result of the lock down.

[Escoguy]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

see table 2 for deaths by age

In essence if you are over 60 or have underlying conditions, sheltering in place is the long game until there is a vaccine.

Everyone else could probably make an estimate of their personal risk level.

We could open communities as enough remdisivir comes available if the tests continue to be positive.

[zk]

[quote=sdduuuude]

They are also going to start questioning if going to massive outdoor park or walking trail where they may pass within 5 feet of someone once every 10 minutes is actually a problem and why people sitting with their friends on the beach are getting ticketed.
[/quote]

There are definitely some ridiculous rules out there right now.

[quote=sdduuuude]

And, for sure – the extroverts of the world are going to go mad and become depressed if they can’t hug their friends on a daily basis.

[/quote]

As an introvert, I’ll say that I am somewhat more bothered by staying home than I thought I’d be. While I’ve always gotten out and done stuff, I didn’t realize how important it is to me until I couldn’t do it any more.

[quote=sdduuuude]

A more sustainable solution is necessary and the politicians who think they are in control of everything are going to find out they aren’t. They need to learn the difference between “perfect” and “optimal.”

[/quote]

I’m not sure they’re looking for perfect. I think they disagree with you on what optimal is. Obviously nobody knows what optimal is. Nobody can possibly know.

I think the key is to start with an open mind and with as much scientific knowledge of the situation as possible. Even if everybody starts with those two things, there are going to be huge disagreements on what’s optimal, because obviously there are no scientific ways to measure the importance of money, lives, mental states, or the thousand other variables at play, nor how any actions we take will affect all those things. But if everybody starts with those two things, we’ll have a better chance of at least moving in the direction of optimal.

[Anonymous]

[quote=spdrun]If that’s the case for NY state, that means that 50 to 85% of the state has been exposed, since testing has uncovered about 1% positives for virus. Strangely, I find that plausible since 15% of pregnant women coming into one hospital were testing positive for active infection, with more likely infected in the past and no longer shedding viral RNA…

If serology shows this, we likely distanced too late, but hindsight is 20/20.[/quote]
This also means the death rate should be lowered by a factor of 50-85, which makes it on par with seasonal flu

[spdrun]

If I were to bet, I’d bet on 2-4x higher than a seasonal flu (0.2% to 0.4%), not over 1%.

[svelte]

Finally some stats on the percent of people tested by state and the percent of those who tested positive:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8231015/No-plan-sight-Test-troubles-cloud-Trump-recovery-effort.html

Unfortunately, California isn’t listed.

[joec]

[quote=The-Shoveler]In LA the big surge never came, they have at least 1000 empty beds.[/quote]

Even without the surge, it seems we still lack basic PPEs so until that happens, I don’t think we should be letting things get back to normal if medical workers don’t even have basic supplies.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/california-coronavirus-nurses-suspended-trnd/index.html

[scaredyclassic]

CV coverage is now free at nytimes.com

Experts discuss next few years.

Sounds to me like we open for business, die a lot, hunker down, open for business and just kinda repeat that until we get a vaccine.

Kinda depressing.

[spdrun]

Italy is showing a death rate of about 0.35% when antibody prevalence is considered in the population. Ours will likely be lower due to a functional medical system, lower average age, lower smoking rates, and better treatment in the future. We’ll need some measures to keep this from spreading too quickly, but if we’re lucky, we’ll end up with a death rate similar to a bad flu year. This is looking less lethal and more contagious rather than vice versa.

[svelte]

[quote=scaredyclassic]
Sounds to me like we open for business, die a lot, hunker down, open for business and just kinda repeat that until we get a vaccine.

Kinda depressing.[/quote]

This is exactly what happened in 1918 and I expect it to happen again.

It’s hard to keep people locked up when the death rate is low as its hard to explain to them that the death rate is low BECAUSE they are locked up.

let the roller coaster begin…

[Author]

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