Coronavirus Endgame

[teaboy]

Is anyone else utterly disappointed with the lack of intellectual rigor in most clickbait “news” articles these days?
Most articles don’t even try to question how this might all play out, and others lazily conclude with the optimistic, but vapid, “we will adapt and thrive.”

Here’s one article which does a fair attempt:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/the-case-for-shutting-down-almost-everything-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone

Also, Rich, your comments in the “Coronavirus/Economy/Stock Market” thread on this site are well-measured vs the typical hyperbole I read about stocks.
https://www.piggington.com/coronaviruseconomystock_market

Trouble is, with the rapidly evolving situation we’re in, the shelf-life on these articles is quite short, and there’s just so much chaff to sort from the wheat.
Could I invite other Piggs to share links to their most thoughtful or thought provoking articles on the medium/long term outlook or “Coronavirus Endgame” over the next days/weeks?

Tb

[The-Shoveler]

IMO Sun comes out (hopefully soon) and we start getting 80 degree days, case numbers reduce drastically and everyone goes back to work wondering if what we did to ourselves was worth it.

Or at least could have been accomplished with a lot less drastic measures.

[Hobie]

And what to do with a ton of tp and a freezer full of pizza. 🙂

[phaster]

[quote=teaboy]I invite other Piggs to share links to their most thoughtful or thought provoking articles on the medium/long term outlook or “Coronavirus Endgame” over the next days/weeks?
[/quote]

looking at the events reported in the news,…

[quote]
Americans Coping With the Coronavirus Are Clogging Toilets

Sewage systems and toilets are backing up as consumers clean their homes with disinfectant wipes and turn to paper towels, napkins and baby wipes to cope with the lack of toilet paper.

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/flushable-wipes-clog.html
[/quote]

the end game for many does not look good since common sense, critical thinking and “calm” courage to face the harsh reality seems to be missing

PS if this was a baseball game,… I’d guess we are at the start of the 3rd inning

1st,… china “gets hit”
2nd,… iran, italy “gets hit”
3rd,… USA “gets hit”

[Coronita]

[quote=Hobie]And what to do with a ton of tp and a freezer full of pizza. :)[/quote]

Can’t return them at Costco
ha ha ha.

https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/22/costco-toilet-paper-hoarding-panic-buying-coronavirus/

[teaboy]

“ Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Here’s How.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

[Coronita]

Endgame is when these charts look better

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Coronita]

.

[svelte]

[quote=Coronita]Endgame is when these charts look better

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/%5B/quote%5D

I stumbled across that link yesterday! I like it a lot.

I sort of feel like the warming of the weather might help some, but it is basically a matter of having enough people catch it that everybody’s been through it. The reason isolation helps is because this flu is particularly nasty and we need to space our those needing medical attention so they don’t flood hospitals all at once.

Looking at the 1918 Spanish Flu in San Diego, first case was Sept 26 and by Dec 31 it was almost gone…cold weather and all. Thinking it through my opinion is that all the people that were going to be exposed had been by that point and that’s why the numbers started to drop. I’m of the opinion that the same thing needs to happen this time.

As far as the economic damage, stocks were already in a freefall in 1918 due to WW1, so it is hard to separate out the effect of the Spanish Flu. Stocks did make a recovery once both were over (they both ended within a month or two of each other) but another recession hit in 1920. Any lessons for us here from that? It is really hard to tell.

[sdduuuude]

I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don’t really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=Coronita]Endgame is when these charts look better

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/%5B/quote%5D

That site had some suspect numbers the last few days.
Number of critical cases in the US was stuck at 64 and at one point today’s New Deaths was larger than yesterday’s Critical Cases number. I sent them a note.Seems they updated it. 2% of active cases now critical.

US data Yesterday showed a possible inflection point on 3/20. The first break in the exponential growth. Not saying it will continue to break but something to watch.

Going to be a few weeks before those numbers can start to look good because of the 14-day incubation period and the amount of time it takes to shed the virus. Right now all the cases going into “closed” status are the early ones, which were likely people in very bad condition who waited to long to seek treatment.

I’m not sure that data is very useful given they aren’t testing random samples of the population. Maybe CDC using this “test only the infected” to heighten people’s acceptance of self-quarantine plans.

The testing process isn’t a random sample by any means so there is no way we can infer death rates from these at all.

I read somewhere that the 1.4% death rate in China was 1.4% of people who showed symptoms and tested positive. I can’t find that link. We have no information about how many people who might be infected but show now symptoms.

I think an endgame needs better testing and that stay-at-home orders are a result of not having good testing and reasonable random-sample statistics.

I still think the end game is this looks like the flu with a deadlier start-up year. I think it will be seasonal, fairly pervasive, immunizations available, better treatment plan, death-rate down near 0.1% of INFECTED people and much worse for the old.

It is the birth of a new flu, which we have been living and dying with for decades so I don’t think it will change our life much at all, come Summer.

[Hobie]

This guy discusses sample data and its implications. Worth 10min of your time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=66&v=p_AyuhbnPOI&feature=emb_logo

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=sdduuuude]I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don’t really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.[/quote]

The best map by a Johns Hopkins professor, and her grad student who’s in China.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map-faq.html

[The-Shoveler]

Seriously Flyer get off the China thing really seriously.

I think he was referring to more a local city by city map.

Undoubtedly it would show most cases in very high density locations.

It would be interesting to show map of deaths caused by poverty in the aftermath.

[Coronita]

Every state will lose jobs as a result of the coronavirus: Policymakers must take action

Different map…. Economic impact by state

[Author]

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