contrarian idea: mortgage ‘rebound’?

[VCJIM]

I hereby nominate you Poway to:

1) Formulate the questions. (not too many, not too specific, we’re looking for general sentiment)
2) Receive the results.
3) Tally and present them.

: )

Jim

Any seconds for this motion?

[Chris Johnston]

Chris Johnston
iamafuturestrader.com

I do not need any more time, I have already been doing it. I would say about 80% of the people I have talked to in OC think prices will not fall much, if at all. THe great weather, job climate, the usual bs is what they use to support their argument. I do not even bother debating them, I just leave with the chesire cat smile on my face.

I just ran into two more yesterday. I do not care if people agree with my assessment or not, I have my plan and I am following it. I love to fade the majority, so me lika these kinda numba!

The majority is not wealthy, so why would they be able to predict accurately major asset class price swings?

[VCJIM]

The purpose of our survey is not to convince anyone, in fact I would urge anyone doing the survey to not get into any debates. It’s just a fact-finding mission.

[powayseller]

VCJIM, this is your project. I am following your lead. I will ask the question: “Do you think housing is a good investment over the next year? Over 5 years?”, and tally my results, and post any comments I get. Whoever has these 10 tallies first, can start a thread for this topic. We should be able to get a few hundred people this way.

I don’t know much about statistics, but I know for accuracy we should poll a variety of neighborhoods (check, we live all over San Diego) and income/education/ethnic levels.

Another question: when you guys get gas, check how many people filled up their tank. If they don’t fill up, they are either hoping gas will be cheaper next time, or they can’t afford it. I strike up conversations, and I get the “I can’t afford it” story a few times. I just say to the other people, “Can you believe the price of gas? Do you think people can afford to fill up?” And people start talking…

[rocketman]

I’ll be glad to do it. My answers might be a little skewed since I live in Pleasanton (Bay area) and the market is relatively only “flattening-out” here. I think there is an absolute lull going on around here since the Fed paused.

[VCJIM]

Alright, I’m not statistician but I’ll do the best I can. Please give your results along with your area. This is primarily San Diego based, but there are a lot of out-of-towners on here too, including me. It will be very interesting to me to see if there are geographical differences in sentiment. I’m betting Phoenix gets the lowest marks!

I’ll start today at my son’s football practice.

Here is the question:

“Do you think housing is a good investment over the next year? Over the next five years?”

The more people that do it, the better our results will be!

[HereWeGo]

So if transactions are down and prices are starting to fall, yet the “consensus” opinion says that real estate is a great investment, what does that bode for the future?

[PD]

Should we ask people if they think a recession might be in the works?

[powayseller]

Yesterday I told my son’s orthodontist we’re heading into a recession, and he was kind of taken aback by that. I don’t think that the R word is on anyone’s radar screen. It would be interesting to find out. Instead of a leading question, we could ask, “What’s the likelihood of a recession vs. an economic boom in the next few years”?

[Author]

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