Confused with the current market

[Arraya]

[quote=patientrenter]Scarlett,
Yet we all pretend that the complicated and expensive system we’ve constructed to keep home prices sky-high is rational. That too is nuts.[/quote]

Exactly and it will bite us in the ass, in the end…

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[sdrealtor]

Arraya
Do you think your judgement is clouded by the fact you arent making payments right now and thus have become desensitized to that and can easily project that behavior onto the rest of the US population?

[sdrealtor]

Arraya
Do you think your judgement is clouded by the fact you arent making payments right now and thus have become desensitized to that and can easily project that behavior onto the rest of the US population?

[sdrealtor]

Arraya
Do you think your judgement is clouded by the fact you arent making payments right now and thus have become desensitized to that and can easily project that behavior onto the rest of the US population?

[sdrealtor]

Arraya
Do you think your judgement is clouded by the fact you arent making payments right now and thus have become desensitized to that and can easily project that behavior onto the rest of the US population?

[sdrealtor]

Arraya
Do you think your judgement is clouded by the fact you arent making payments right now and thus have become desensitized to that and can easily project that behavior onto the rest of the US population?

[Scarlett]

[quote=outtamojo]Not to criticize spending habits, but shouldn’t 170K income/ year be plenty even w/ kids?[/quote]
Plenty for what? To live decently in a pricey area like La Jolla UTC (renting) – yes, but not saving much.

Here is a breakdown:
The take home salary is 12K. Maximizing 401K means 2000/mo. 2000/mo daycare, 1000/mo college funds, 500/mo life insurance; gas,car insurance, car payments 1000/mo. $500 utilities, cable and iphones. So here are 7000$ already accounted for. we have left $5000 at MOST. $2500 rent.
Food is at least $1500.

Then there are clothes, toys/games, books, parks, classes/activities, and other household items…

Only for last couple years we had real income after one of us left finally academia…

Of course all of us going to Europe to see my family and them to see the kids every other year for a few weeks wipes most of the savings those year…

[Scarlett]

[quote=outtamojo]Not to criticize spending habits, but shouldn’t 170K income/ year be plenty even w/ kids?[/quote]
Plenty for what? To live decently in a pricey area like La Jolla UTC (renting) – yes, but not saving much.

Here is a breakdown:
The take home salary is 12K. Maximizing 401K means 2000/mo. 2000/mo daycare, 1000/mo college funds, 500/mo life insurance; gas,car insurance, car payments 1000/mo. $500 utilities, cable and iphones. So here are 7000$ already accounted for. we have left $5000 at MOST. $2500 rent.
Food is at least $1500.

Then there are clothes, toys/games, books, parks, classes/activities, and other household items…

Only for last couple years we had real income after one of us left finally academia…

Of course all of us going to Europe to see my family and them to see the kids every other year for a few weeks wipes most of the savings those year…

[Scarlett]

[quote=outtamojo]Not to criticize spending habits, but shouldn’t 170K income/ year be plenty even w/ kids?[/quote]
Plenty for what? To live decently in a pricey area like La Jolla UTC (renting) – yes, but not saving much.

Here is a breakdown:
The take home salary is 12K. Maximizing 401K means 2000/mo. 2000/mo daycare, 1000/mo college funds, 500/mo life insurance; gas,car insurance, car payments 1000/mo. $500 utilities, cable and iphones. So here are 7000$ already accounted for. we have left $5000 at MOST. $2500 rent.
Food is at least $1500.

Then there are clothes, toys/games, books, parks, classes/activities, and other household items…

Only for last couple years we had real income after one of us left finally academia…

Of course all of us going to Europe to see my family and them to see the kids every other year for a few weeks wipes most of the savings those year…

[Scarlett]

[quote=outtamojo]Not to criticize spending habits, but shouldn’t 170K income/ year be plenty even w/ kids?[/quote]
Plenty for what? To live decently in a pricey area like La Jolla UTC (renting) – yes, but not saving much.

Here is a breakdown:
The take home salary is 12K. Maximizing 401K means 2000/mo. 2000/mo daycare, 1000/mo college funds, 500/mo life insurance; gas,car insurance, car payments 1000/mo. $500 utilities, cable and iphones. So here are 7000$ already accounted for. we have left $5000 at MOST. $2500 rent.
Food is at least $1500.

Then there are clothes, toys/games, books, parks, classes/activities, and other household items…

Only for last couple years we had real income after one of us left finally academia…

Of course all of us going to Europe to see my family and them to see the kids every other year for a few weeks wipes most of the savings those year…

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