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sdrealtor.
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March 28, 2011 at 12:11 AM #682046March 28, 2011 at 6:26 AM #681248
SD Realtor
ParticipantI don’t think it is to challenging to predict the curve will never look like the bubble curve. That is why it was a bubble. I think paying attention to national stats and prognostications is interesting but can be misleading for a San Diego shopper.
I am still sticking to a couple rational thoughts.
1 – I will not even look at national trends if I am concerned with San Diego real estate.
2 – Within San Diego I know that variances between regions are substantial. (Wake me up when the medians in Carmel Valley = El Cajon)
3 – The demand in many of the regions with good school districts and more desired areas is substantial.
4 – That the govt and the banks have effectively been able to manipulate the market by controlling inventory flow.
5 – That IMO prices will be strongly driven by interest rates. This will take awhile but may be able to be the pile driver that breaks the gridlock.
6 – That depreciation will vary in different price strata.
March 28, 2011 at 6:26 AM #682410ParticipantI don’t think it is to challenging to predict the curve will never look like the bubble curve. That is why it was a bubble. I think paying attention to national stats and prognostications is interesting but can be misleading for a San Diego shopper.
I am still sticking to a couple rational thoughts.
1 – I will not even look at national trends if I am concerned with San Diego real estate.
2 – Within San Diego I know that variances between regions are substantial. (Wake me up when the medians in Carmel Valley = El Cajon)
3 – The demand in many of the regions with good school districts and more desired areas is substantial.
4 – That the govt and the banks have effectively been able to manipulate the market by controlling inventory flow.
5 – That IMO prices will be strongly driven by interest rates. This will take awhile but may be able to be the pile driver that breaks the gridlock.
6 – That depreciation will vary in different price strata.
March 28, 2011 at 6:26 AM #682056ParticipantI don’t think it is to challenging to predict the curve will never look like the bubble curve. That is why it was a bubble. I think paying attention to national stats and prognostications is interesting but can be misleading for a San Diego shopper.
I am still sticking to a couple rational thoughts.
1 – I will not even look at national trends if I am concerned with San Diego real estate.
2 – Within San Diego I know that variances between regions are substantial. (Wake me up when the medians in Carmel Valley = El Cajon)
3 – The demand in many of the regions with good school districts and more desired areas is substantial.
4 – That the govt and the banks have effectively been able to manipulate the market by controlling inventory flow.
5 – That IMO prices will be strongly driven by interest rates. This will take awhile but may be able to be the pile driver that breaks the gridlock.
6 – That depreciation will vary in different price strata.
March 28, 2011 at 6:26 AM #681916ParticipantI don’t think it is to challenging to predict the curve will never look like the bubble curve. That is why it was a bubble. I think paying attention to national stats and prognostications is interesting but can be misleading for a San Diego shopper.
I am still sticking to a couple rational thoughts.
1 – I will not even look at national trends if I am concerned with San Diego real estate.
2 – Within San Diego I know that variances between regions are substantial. (Wake me up when the medians in Carmel Valley = El Cajon)
3 – The demand in many of the regions with good school districts and more desired areas is substantial.
4 – That the govt and the banks have effectively been able to manipulate the market by controlling inventory flow.
5 – That IMO prices will be strongly driven by interest rates. This will take awhile but may be able to be the pile driver that breaks the gridlock.
6 – That depreciation will vary in different price strata.
March 28, 2011 at 6:26 AM #681301ParticipantI don’t think it is to challenging to predict the curve will never look like the bubble curve. That is why it was a bubble. I think paying attention to national stats and prognostications is interesting but can be misleading for a San Diego shopper.
I am still sticking to a couple rational thoughts.
1 – I will not even look at national trends if I am concerned with San Diego real estate.
2 – Within San Diego I know that variances between regions are substantial. (Wake me up when the medians in Carmel Valley = El Cajon)
3 – The demand in many of the regions with good school districts and more desired areas is substantial.
4 – That the govt and the banks have effectively been able to manipulate the market by controlling inventory flow.
5 – That IMO prices will be strongly driven by interest rates. This will take awhile but may be able to be the pile driver that breaks the gridlock.
6 – That depreciation will vary in different price strata.
March 28, 2011 at 9:55 AM #681942sdrealtor
Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]
Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.[/quote]
Exactly which is why I said start before the largest credit bubble in history was in full swing and which has been largely unwound. The point is you can pick to start and stop wherever you want but it is largely arbitrary and people will pick the points which naturaly make sense to them but which can end up being wholly inappropriate.
Work ahead of us? Absolutely!
Impact on nominal pricing? Completely unknown!
March 28, 2011 at 9:55 AM #682081Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]
Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.[/quote]
Exactly which is why I said start before the largest credit bubble in history was in full swing and which has been largely unwound. The point is you can pick to start and stop wherever you want but it is largely arbitrary and people will pick the points which naturaly make sense to them but which can end up being wholly inappropriate.
Work ahead of us? Absolutely!
Impact on nominal pricing? Completely unknown!
March 28, 2011 at 9:55 AM #681325Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]
Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.[/quote]
Exactly which is why I said start before the largest credit bubble in history was in full swing and which has been largely unwound. The point is you can pick to start and stop wherever you want but it is largely arbitrary and people will pick the points which naturaly make sense to them but which can end up being wholly inappropriate.
Work ahead of us? Absolutely!
Impact on nominal pricing? Completely unknown!
March 28, 2011 at 9:55 AM #681272Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]
Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.[/quote]
Exactly which is why I said start before the largest credit bubble in history was in full swing and which has been largely unwound. The point is you can pick to start and stop wherever you want but it is largely arbitrary and people will pick the points which naturaly make sense to them but which can end up being wholly inappropriate.
Work ahead of us? Absolutely!
Impact on nominal pricing? Completely unknown!
March 28, 2011 at 9:55 AM #682434Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]The trend line pretty clearly looks to be pre-1999 but why stop there. That has a major downcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1990? No that has a major upcycle leading up to it. Perhaps they should start at 1985? No that has a major downcycle leading up to it. Oh shit…f*ck it…how do we do it? Oh yeah, that’s right….it’s just someone’s arbitrary graph with arbitrary starting and ending points created to confirm one’s biases. It is what it is…..[/quote]
Big, big difference between “regular” housing and credit cycles vs. the largest credit bubble in history.[/quote]
Exactly which is why I said start before the largest credit bubble in history was in full swing and which has been largely unwound. The point is you can pick to start and stop wherever you want but it is largely arbitrary and people will pick the points which naturaly make sense to them but which can end up being wholly inappropriate.
Work ahead of us? Absolutely!
Impact on nominal pricing? Completely unknown!
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