China is Dubai times 1,000 — or worse

[ocrenter]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]OCR: Why no mention of the Japanese Keiretsu or MITI? I would hazard a guess, but I’m curious as to why neither is mentioned along with SoKorea and Taiwan.[/quote]

Japan was not mentioned because the national starting point was different. Japan’s post-war rise was basically in parallel with post-war Europe. Japan and Europe were essentially developed economies that were destroyed by the war. Rebuilding of economies like that was different than economies that were pre-industrial.

S.Korea and Taiwan are more comparable with China because all three were in essence agrarian societies after WWII/Chinese Civil War/Korean War. The path to development started from the ground up, not a rebuilding situation that Japan was.

[quote]As far as comparing SoKorea and Taiwan to China, you’d want to start with comparing the competency of the actual governments themselves. China, like the Soviet Union before, is incompetent and at all levels of government. No other way to put it. While SoKorea and Taiwan did indeed emplace something approximating centrally planned autarky, it doesn’t come close to China’s Communist Party in terms of “policies and procedures”.[/quote]

Taiwan’s and S.Korea’s authoritarian one party governments were just as incompetent and corrupt at all levels of government. The competency and transparency came after the economies developed and the middle class became the majority. Basically, as the population became more developed, they demanded more from the respective governments and the governments complied.

[quote]Beyond that, I’d offer that China’s educational system is nowhere the task necessary to bring a country of that size, populated with largely subsistence farmers, forward to a point where the average person is earning $20K – $25K per year. Where does China rank in terms of Top 100 International Universities?[/quote]

China’s got a very competitive education system. education is prized in the entire East Asia as a whole, China is no exception. in fact, you may even say it is too competitive and cut throat. are Chinese universities competitive to America in term of innovations? absolutely not. But remember, China is at a different stage of development. Development is what it does best, innovation comes after development.

[quote]You mention dealing with each of the 40 Chinese provinces as a separate city-state or country. I wouldn’t disagree with that assessment, but, unfortunately, the Chinese government does NOT treat each province separately. Its a centrally planned government and when those government mandates and edicts filter down to the local level, you’re now encountering the very people Brian mentioned above: Corrupt petty officials, who also lack any sort of technical or policy-driven training.[/quote]

all of the negatives you see in China are mostly true. They do have a lot of corrupt and uneducated officials. But as a Taiwanese, I’ve seen Taiwan’s rapid rise from bottom of 3rd world to 1st world status within 40 years. And China’s rise is eerily similar. All of the negative comments about the CCP now are in essence carbon copy criticisms toward Taiwan’s KMT back in the days.

China is obviously much bigger and will end up facing more social unrest issues. It will also be much harsher in its approach regarding social unrest. But China’s population will back the government in its harsh crackdowns because the population is willing to tolerate that lack of freedom in exchange for speedier economic development.

[Eugene]

[quote]While I don’t do business there, the majority of my clients (oil/gas and Heavy Industrial) do and report back a quite different picture than you do. There is little to no protection of foreign IP, the Chinese government asserts primacy in all deals and is heavily involved, especially given that most of the Heavy Industry in China is either state run or state sponsored, and the local quality control is execrable.[/quote]

Try to do the same kind of business in Russia (or in Cambodia). Once you figure out how much money has to be put aside to bribe local officials of all levels just to keep your offices from being shut down, and how much money and paperwork is involved in getting the simplest piece of electronic equipment exported from the country, China will seem like a manna from heaven.

In a way, China is more capitalist than we are. We have the OSHA, and the EPA, and all sorts of other federal agencies which are relatively hard to bribe, and they all tend to keep private entrepreneurs on the straight and narrow. There’s nothing like that in China. I’m not saying that Chinese workers are necessarily more reliable or thorough than American workers, in fact, the opposite is most likely the case (which is why there’s still SOME manufacturing left in this country). You can’t rely on pre-existing capital equipment, even if it was “certified” by local officials. It’s up to you to provide quality control. But if you manage to put the project together by yourself, ample and cheap (if not very competent) workers are right there and knocking on your door, corruption is sufficiently suppressed, the export code is simple and transparent, there’s infrastructure that lets you get your “stuff” from the loading dock of your factory somewhere in Guangzhou province to the Port of Long Beach with minimal expenses, and that is what matters for a business man.

[Eugene]

[quote]While I don’t do business there, the majority of my clients (oil/gas and Heavy Industrial) do and report back a quite different picture than you do. There is little to no protection of foreign IP, the Chinese government asserts primacy in all deals and is heavily involved, especially given that most of the Heavy Industry in China is either state run or state sponsored, and the local quality control is execrable.[/quote]

Try to do the same kind of business in Russia (or in Cambodia). Once you figure out how much money has to be put aside to bribe local officials of all levels just to keep your offices from being shut down, and how much money and paperwork is involved in getting the simplest piece of electronic equipment exported from the country, China will seem like a manna from heaven.

In a way, China is more capitalist than we are. We have the OSHA, and the EPA, and all sorts of other federal agencies which are relatively hard to bribe, and they all tend to keep private entrepreneurs on the straight and narrow. There’s nothing like that in China. I’m not saying that Chinese workers are necessarily more reliable or thorough than American workers, in fact, the opposite is most likely the case (which is why there’s still SOME manufacturing left in this country). You can’t rely on pre-existing capital equipment, even if it was “certified” by local officials. It’s up to you to provide quality control. But if you manage to put the project together by yourself, ample and cheap (if not very competent) workers are right there and knocking on your door, corruption is sufficiently suppressed, the export code is simple and transparent, there’s infrastructure that lets you get your “stuff” from the loading dock of your factory somewhere in Guangzhou province to the Port of Long Beach with minimal expenses, and that is what matters for a business man.

[Eugene]

[quote]While I don’t do business there, the majority of my clients (oil/gas and Heavy Industrial) do and report back a quite different picture than you do. There is little to no protection of foreign IP, the Chinese government asserts primacy in all deals and is heavily involved, especially given that most of the Heavy Industry in China is either state run or state sponsored, and the local quality control is execrable.[/quote]

Try to do the same kind of business in Russia (or in Cambodia). Once you figure out how much money has to be put aside to bribe local officials of all levels just to keep your offices from being shut down, and how much money and paperwork is involved in getting the simplest piece of electronic equipment exported from the country, China will seem like a manna from heaven.

In a way, China is more capitalist than we are. We have the OSHA, and the EPA, and all sorts of other federal agencies which are relatively hard to bribe, and they all tend to keep private entrepreneurs on the straight and narrow. There’s nothing like that in China. I’m not saying that Chinese workers are necessarily more reliable or thorough than American workers, in fact, the opposite is most likely the case (which is why there’s still SOME manufacturing left in this country). You can’t rely on pre-existing capital equipment, even if it was “certified” by local officials. It’s up to you to provide quality control. But if you manage to put the project together by yourself, ample and cheap (if not very competent) workers are right there and knocking on your door, corruption is sufficiently suppressed, the export code is simple and transparent, there’s infrastructure that lets you get your “stuff” from the loading dock of your factory somewhere in Guangzhou province to the Port of Long Beach with minimal expenses, and that is what matters for a business man.

[Eugene]

[quote]While I don’t do business there, the majority of my clients (oil/gas and Heavy Industrial) do and report back a quite different picture than you do. There is little to no protection of foreign IP, the Chinese government asserts primacy in all deals and is heavily involved, especially given that most of the Heavy Industry in China is either state run or state sponsored, and the local quality control is execrable.[/quote]

Try to do the same kind of business in Russia (or in Cambodia). Once you figure out how much money has to be put aside to bribe local officials of all levels just to keep your offices from being shut down, and how much money and paperwork is involved in getting the simplest piece of electronic equipment exported from the country, China will seem like a manna from heaven.

In a way, China is more capitalist than we are. We have the OSHA, and the EPA, and all sorts of other federal agencies which are relatively hard to bribe, and they all tend to keep private entrepreneurs on the straight and narrow. There’s nothing like that in China. I’m not saying that Chinese workers are necessarily more reliable or thorough than American workers, in fact, the opposite is most likely the case (which is why there’s still SOME manufacturing left in this country). You can’t rely on pre-existing capital equipment, even if it was “certified” by local officials. It’s up to you to provide quality control. But if you manage to put the project together by yourself, ample and cheap (if not very competent) workers are right there and knocking on your door, corruption is sufficiently suppressed, the export code is simple and transparent, there’s infrastructure that lets you get your “stuff” from the loading dock of your factory somewhere in Guangzhou province to the Port of Long Beach with minimal expenses, and that is what matters for a business man.

[Eugene]

[quote]While I don’t do business there, the majority of my clients (oil/gas and Heavy Industrial) do and report back a quite different picture than you do. There is little to no protection of foreign IP, the Chinese government asserts primacy in all deals and is heavily involved, especially given that most of the Heavy Industry in China is either state run or state sponsored, and the local quality control is execrable.[/quote]

Try to do the same kind of business in Russia (or in Cambodia). Once you figure out how much money has to be put aside to bribe local officials of all levels just to keep your offices from being shut down, and how much money and paperwork is involved in getting the simplest piece of electronic equipment exported from the country, China will seem like a manna from heaven.

In a way, China is more capitalist than we are. We have the OSHA, and the EPA, and all sorts of other federal agencies which are relatively hard to bribe, and they all tend to keep private entrepreneurs on the straight and narrow. There’s nothing like that in China. I’m not saying that Chinese workers are necessarily more reliable or thorough than American workers, in fact, the opposite is most likely the case (which is why there’s still SOME manufacturing left in this country). You can’t rely on pre-existing capital equipment, even if it was “certified” by local officials. It’s up to you to provide quality control. But if you manage to put the project together by yourself, ample and cheap (if not very competent) workers are right there and knocking on your door, corruption is sufficiently suppressed, the export code is simple and transparent, there’s infrastructure that lets you get your “stuff” from the loading dock of your factory somewhere in Guangzhou province to the Port of Long Beach with minimal expenses, and that is what matters for a business man.

[moneymaker]

[quote=briansd1]

Again, I think that the biggest challenge for China is income equity — putting money in the hands of hundreds of millions of consumers (growing the pie so to speak).[/quote]

Exploitation of natural resources, why does that always sound bad, is how the Chinese will grow their internal economy. The same way we grew ours. Environmentalists are just as responsible as unions for why we don’t have as many jobs in this country as we could have. I’m not meaning to pick on any one group of people, I’m just saying when the shit hits the fan there will be plenty of people pointing fingers. Dow @ 8,000 = normal.

[moneymaker]

[quote=briansd1]

Again, I think that the biggest challenge for China is income equity — putting money in the hands of hundreds of millions of consumers (growing the pie so to speak).[/quote]

Exploitation of natural resources, why does that always sound bad, is how the Chinese will grow their internal economy. The same way we grew ours. Environmentalists are just as responsible as unions for why we don’t have as many jobs in this country as we could have. I’m not meaning to pick on any one group of people, I’m just saying when the shit hits the fan there will be plenty of people pointing fingers. Dow @ 8,000 = normal.

[moneymaker]

[quote=briansd1]

Again, I think that the biggest challenge for China is income equity — putting money in the hands of hundreds of millions of consumers (growing the pie so to speak).[/quote]

Exploitation of natural resources, why does that always sound bad, is how the Chinese will grow their internal economy. The same way we grew ours. Environmentalists are just as responsible as unions for why we don’t have as many jobs in this country as we could have. I’m not meaning to pick on any one group of people, I’m just saying when the shit hits the fan there will be plenty of people pointing fingers. Dow @ 8,000 = normal.

[moneymaker]

[quote=briansd1]

Again, I think that the biggest challenge for China is income equity — putting money in the hands of hundreds of millions of consumers (growing the pie so to speak).[/quote]

Exploitation of natural resources, why does that always sound bad, is how the Chinese will grow their internal economy. The same way we grew ours. Environmentalists are just as responsible as unions for why we don’t have as many jobs in this country as we could have. I’m not meaning to pick on any one group of people, I’m just saying when the shit hits the fan there will be plenty of people pointing fingers. Dow @ 8,000 = normal.

[moneymaker]

[quote=briansd1]

Again, I think that the biggest challenge for China is income equity — putting money in the hands of hundreds of millions of consumers (growing the pie so to speak).[/quote]

Exploitation of natural resources, why does that always sound bad, is how the Chinese will grow their internal economy. The same way we grew ours. Environmentalists are just as responsible as unions for why we don’t have as many jobs in this country as we could have. I’m not meaning to pick on any one group of people, I’m just saying when the shit hits the fan there will be plenty of people pointing fingers. Dow @ 8,000 = normal.

[Arraya]

China has no domestic energy sources it can readily and swiftly put to use like the US did during it’s rise. It has to import all of its energy except for coal and a small amount of uranium. That’s not a recipe for developing an empire. China has no domestic customer base. Its annual per capita nominal GDP is $3,300 vs $47,000 for the US. Its per capita consumption is $1,150 vs $32,900 for the US. Even if it would try, it would take decades to develop a viable domestic customer base.

China’s recent rise has been one totally dependent on the West, cheap plentiful energy and that of a parasite of which there are no other hosts in site. China is not a force, it’s a basket case standing on thin stilts pretending the future is glorious.

[Arraya]

China has no domestic energy sources it can readily and swiftly put to use like the US did during it’s rise. It has to import all of its energy except for coal and a small amount of uranium. That’s not a recipe for developing an empire. China has no domestic customer base. Its annual per capita nominal GDP is $3,300 vs $47,000 for the US. Its per capita consumption is $1,150 vs $32,900 for the US. Even if it would try, it would take decades to develop a viable domestic customer base.

China’s recent rise has been one totally dependent on the West, cheap plentiful energy and that of a parasite of which there are no other hosts in site. China is not a force, it’s a basket case standing on thin stilts pretending the future is glorious.

[Arraya]

China has no domestic energy sources it can readily and swiftly put to use like the US did during it’s rise. It has to import all of its energy except for coal and a small amount of uranium. That’s not a recipe for developing an empire. China has no domestic customer base. Its annual per capita nominal GDP is $3,300 vs $47,000 for the US. Its per capita consumption is $1,150 vs $32,900 for the US. Even if it would try, it would take decades to develop a viable domestic customer base.

China’s recent rise has been one totally dependent on the West, cheap plentiful energy and that of a parasite of which there are no other hosts in site. China is not a force, it’s a basket case standing on thin stilts pretending the future is glorious.

[Arraya]

China has no domestic energy sources it can readily and swiftly put to use like the US did during it’s rise. It has to import all of its energy except for coal and a small amount of uranium. That’s not a recipe for developing an empire. China has no domestic customer base. Its annual per capita nominal GDP is $3,300 vs $47,000 for the US. Its per capita consumption is $1,150 vs $32,900 for the US. Even if it would try, it would take decades to develop a viable domestic customer base.

China’s recent rise has been one totally dependent on the West, cheap plentiful energy and that of a parasite of which there are no other hosts in site. China is not a force, it’s a basket case standing on thin stilts pretending the future is glorious.

[Author]

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