china and American debt

[bsrsharma]

“If the Tsar and the Nazis couldn’t defeat us, and we caught up with our missiles even though we were devastated by the Wehrmacht, and we bluffed JFK during the Cold War, I have a problem believing some medieval Afghan ragheads and a brainless twit like Ronald Reagan will do us in.” — some Bolshevik.

Dr Chaos, Since you seem to like Catastrophe theories, I can tell what my probable Catastrophe would be:

1. “raghead” problem you alluded above. It has costed US upwards of a Trillion $ and a wasted decade fighting the islamic terrorism induced wars.

2. The real iceberg that may sink the Titanic is the coming retirement of baby boomers during 2010s – 2020s. As they start drawing down on savings, investments, social security & medicare and stop paying taxes, government budgets and overall economy will get hit by a slow moving tsunami.

I think 1 & 2 are going to impact us more than China or Mexico (illegal immigration)

[heavyd]

This book is very topical and a great, easy read:

“A Year Without Made in China…”, Sara Bongiorni 2007

HeavyD

[heavyd]

This book is very topical and a great, easy read:

“A Year Without Made in China…”, Sara Bongiorni 2007

HeavyD

[Anonymous]

You must have a background in economics, and/or political science.

surely you’re joking—I would have probably been infected with the usual delusions.

Seriously, I’m a theoretical physicist at UCSD.

[Anonymous]

You must have a background in economics, and/or political science.

surely you’re joking—I would have probably been infected with the usual delusions.

Seriously, I’m a theoretical physicist at UCSD.

[Anonymous]

Re the Islamic wars.

This is binary: does nuclear Pakistan fall to Taliban or not? (the radicals in Pakistan are much crazier than the mullahs in Iran, and Pakistan already has a comprehensive nuclear weapons factory).

If not, then everything is a comparatively small problem on the real global scale if we take our dick out of the cuisinart.

Re benefits:

A stateman would reduce benefits to the boomers to keep the ratio of dependents to workers constant. It is of course political suicide, and the days of principled statesmen went out when Newt Gingrich arrived.

Most likely there will be a “deal” allying boomers with the usual capitalist oligarchs to allow large scale immigration of poor but young Mexicans to start paying payroll taxes to support the boomers. The standard of living of generation X (who will be in their prime earning years when the boomers retire and start screaming for more benefits) and Y will plunge with much higher taxes and worker competition. US citizen poor will be utterly screwed, like going back to Appalachia or the plantations.

Those two catastrophes are insignificant compared to the real enormous “nuclear war scale” biggies

1) 2010-on, peak oil, and in particular peak “net exports”. (Mexico may implode in 2 years due to its oil production available for hard-currency export in rapid decline)

People will temporarily survive because of massive exploitation of coal-to-liquids processing. Which leads to….

2) 2025++, runaway global warming.

Nuclear war might make a comeback if Pakistan goes tits up.

[Anonymous]

Re the Islamic wars.

This is binary: does nuclear Pakistan fall to Taliban or not? (the radicals in Pakistan are much crazier than the mullahs in Iran, and Pakistan already has a comprehensive nuclear weapons factory).

If not, then everything is a comparatively small problem on the real global scale if we take our dick out of the cuisinart.

Re benefits:

A stateman would reduce benefits to the boomers to keep the ratio of dependents to workers constant. It is of course political suicide, and the days of principled statesmen went out when Newt Gingrich arrived.

Most likely there will be a “deal” allying boomers with the usual capitalist oligarchs to allow large scale immigration of poor but young Mexicans to start paying payroll taxes to support the boomers. The standard of living of generation X (who will be in their prime earning years when the boomers retire and start screaming for more benefits) and Y will plunge with much higher taxes and worker competition. US citizen poor will be utterly screwed, like going back to Appalachia or the plantations.

Those two catastrophes are insignificant compared to the real enormous “nuclear war scale” biggies

1) 2010-on, peak oil, and in particular peak “net exports”. (Mexico may implode in 2 years due to its oil production available for hard-currency export in rapid decline)

People will temporarily survive because of massive exploitation of coal-to-liquids processing. Which leads to….

2) 2025++, runaway global warming.

Nuclear war might make a comeback if Pakistan goes tits up.

[rankandfile]

DrChaos – based on your call name I assume that you are a PhD at UCSD in theoretical physics. Is that theoretical biological physics?

I just find it funny how someone who is so well versed in physical phenomena would take such a Laplacian stance by forecasting events some 18 years into the future. Do you not recall Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle?

[rankandfile]

DrChaos – based on your call name I assume that you are a PhD at UCSD in theoretical physics. Is that theoretical biological physics?

I just find it funny how someone who is so well versed in physical phenomena would take such a Laplacian stance by forecasting events some 18 years into the future. Do you not recall Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle?

[donaldduckmoore]

I thought the Chinese will dump US debt sooner than 15 yrs. They don’t give a damn.

I listened to a program at KPBS this morning (forgot which program) and interviewed the author of a book entitled “a year without buying goods that is made in China” (something similar). She mentioned that it is impossible to survive without buying goods that is made in China. 15 years is optimistic.

[donaldduckmoore]

I thought the Chinese will dump US debt sooner than 15 yrs. They don’t give a damn.

I listened to a program at KPBS this morning (forgot which program) and interviewed the author of a book entitled “a year without buying goods that is made in China” (something similar). She mentioned that it is impossible to survive without buying goods that is made in China. 15 years is optimistic.

[DCRogers]

For those of us who believe in global warming, peak oil is our friend.

[DCRogers]

For those of us who believe in global warming, peak oil is our friend.

[bsrsharma]

“it is impossible to survive without buying goods that is made in China”

Obviously an exaggeration; It will be difficult, inconvenient and expensive – but not impossible. People have done difficult things like crossing Atlantic to live in strange lands, crossing a Continent in Covered Wagons. Survived Dust Bowl, Great Depression, Wars etc.,

The Standard of Living will be dramatically different in 15 years; but life will go on.

I think running out of Petroleum will have a lot more influence on our lifestyle and society than China.

I believe the financial meltdown to be caused by Baby Boomer’s retirement is still the elephant in the room.

[bsrsharma]

“it is impossible to survive without buying goods that is made in China”

Obviously an exaggeration; It will be difficult, inconvenient and expensive – but not impossible. People have done difficult things like crossing Atlantic to live in strange lands, crossing a Continent in Covered Wagons. Survived Dust Bowl, Great Depression, Wars etc.,

The Standard of Living will be dramatically different in 15 years; but life will go on.

I think running out of Petroleum will have a lot more influence on our lifestyle and society than China.

I believe the financial meltdown to be caused by Baby Boomer’s retirement is still the elephant in the room.

[Author]

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