China

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]
3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.
[/quote]

I don’t know about the future. But 3D is shit plastic. [/quote]

FWIW 3D will also be “metals” and its happening now,… GE Will Laser Print Turboprop Engines (for new cessna certification 2020??)

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=phaster][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]
3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.
[/quote]

I don’t know about the future. But 3D is shit plastic. [/quote]

FWIW 3D will also be “metals” and its happening now,… GE Will Laser Print Turboprop Engines (for new cessna certification 2020??)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxrWoIPZdkg%5B/quote%5D

Very cool. Do you think GE shares are undervalued?

[The-Shoveler]

If GE spins off the Jet engine biz, I may invest some in that.

[FlyerInHi]

I watched this very interesting talk with Kevin Rudd and Orville Schell.

China has implemented 2/10 of the economic reforms they had set for themselves. China knows that they to reform, but for political reasons, they have delayed the reforms.
So on trade, my bet is that China will negotiate with things they would have done anyway. Trump will claim a win, but China will win more. Win-win for sure.

Kevin Rudd is too diplomatic, but he’s said before that the US should try to beat China at it’s own game. But the US doesn’t do grand strategies.

This was not addressed in the talk but an interesting thing about TPP. It did not die when Trump pulled out. 11 countries are still sticking with it and the irony would be if China joined TPP. We will see…

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=phaster][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]
3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.
[/quote]

I don’t know about the future. But 3D is shit plastic. [/quote]

FWIW 3D will also be “metals” and its happening now,… GE Will Laser Print Turboprop Engines (for new cessna certification 2020??)

[/quote]

Very cool. Do you think GE shares are undervalued?[/quote]

GE has interesting technology in aerospace and other areas,… unfortunately it comes w/ baggage,… too much emphasis on financial engineering to boost stock prices (in the past) along w/ ignoring unsecured senior debt, a giant liability for long term care insurance, pensions, etc. (i.e. off balance sheet stuff)

so to answer your question about GE being “undervalued???” looking at the overall investor climate, personally have been watching it as a target but unwilling to pull the trigger because I’m keeping my powder dry in the current turbulence

my specific thinking WRT GE aviation, is in an economic downturn travel is put on the back burner, and looking back to the 2007/08 period noticed used aviation business assets flooded the market,… AND so can’t yet justify buying GE (for its aviation products because the “new” turboprop engine is still in the FAA testing phase as far as I can tell), but as I read the tea leaves its still pretty early in the growth game as to where “printed” manufacturing is going to go

https://www.engineering.com/AdvancedManufacturing/ArticleID/18148/Video-Metal-Additive-Manufacturing-Finding-High-Value-Applications-in-Aerospace.aspx

FYI the WSJ just wrote an article about GE

[quote]
GE Powered the American Century—Then It Burned Out

…General Electric Co. helped invent the world as we know it: wired up, plugged in and switched on. Born of Thomas Alva Edison’s ingenuity and John Pierpont Morgan’s audacity, GE built the dynamos that generated the electricity, the wires that carried it and the lightbulbs that burned it.

To keep the power and profits flowing day and night, GE connected neighborhoods with streetcars and cities with locomotives. It soon filled kitchens with ovens and toasters, living rooms with radios and TVs, bathrooms with curling irons and toothbrushes, and laundry rooms with washers and dryers.

The modern GE was built by Jack Welch, the youngest CEO and chairman in company history when he took over in 1981.

… “Fix it, close it or sell it’’ was a favorite slogan. Welch wanted to get out of any businesses where GE wasn’t a market leader.

…The catalyst for GE’s success during Welch’s reign was that it worked more like a collection of businesses under the protection of a giant bank. As the financial sector came to drive more of the U.S. economy, GE Capital, the company’s finance arm, powered more of the company’s growth.

…GE Capital sucked in debt and spat out money. Created in the first half of the last century to help people buy home appliances, it now financed fast-food franchises, power plants and suburban McMansions, and leased out railroad tank cars, office buildings and airliners.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-powered-the-american-centurythen-it-burned-out-11544796010
[/quote]

[FlyerInHi]

Another great talk by Kevin Rudd.
The gravest danger for China is the middle income trap and the non-implementation of market reforms they had identified for themselves.
The trade war may cause China to implement their own reforms, ironically benefit them.

[ocrenter]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Another great talk by Kevin Rudd.
The gravest danger for China is the middle income trap and the non-implementation of market reforms they had identified for themselves.
The trade war may cause China to implement their own reforms, ironically benefit them.

https://youtu.be/AUx2AYAVwGc%5B/quote%5D

I finally got around to watching this. The guy’s got some decent viewpoints. I will say the West’s assumption on China’s eventual liberalization is based on an apple to orange comparison. The West looked at S.Korea and Taiwan and assumed China would go that way as well, but forgot China is essentially Europe unified by the Nazi. One will not be assuming an unified Europe under the Nazi regime to liberalize, will they?

China’s got too many excuses to not liberalize, country is too big, development too unequal, regional differences too great, so on and so forth. The bottom-line as Kevin Rudd pointed out, it is an authoritarian regime aimed at preservation of that authoritarian order.

Honestly, for the good of China, all Chinese people, and the world at large, BREAK IT UP!

[ocrenter]

btw, a great youtube on the chinese housing bubble:

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ocrenter]

I don’t think the trade war will end with Trump, President Pence will be equally if not harder on China. The Dems will not go the other way either come 2020.

Btw, news out of Taiwan is China is facing real GDP growth of 1.6% this year and likely negative GDP next year along with 10 million new unemployed. Things are going from bad to worse over there.[/quote]

I am replying to this from the other thread.

I agree on the anti China sentiment in Washington. It shows how our policy makers are talking from both sides is their mouths. On the one hand, China is a threat; and on the other hand, China cannot succeed because their system is corrupt, inefficient or whatever.

The real fear is that China will succeed and develop an alternative model to the western order, in which case Francis Fukuyama’s end of history will be proven wrong.

A German minister (forgot which one) denounced China’s growing influence but said it’s up to the West to give a more attractive option to any country that wants to do business with China

Do you really think China will go into recession? I know the narrative is that china’s statistics are fake and political. But you can’t lie about growth rates more than 1 year, else the math no longer works and the deception becomes self-evident.

My take on China is that their political model is worse for individual freedom. But their censorship system prevents fake news and irrational populism. Also, at critical stages of economic development (now the 4th industrial revolution) you need large amounts of capital for puclic insfrastructure. Think of what the interstate highway system has done for America, not all good and lots of bad, but it has driven economic growth. The private sector could not have done it.

[ocrenter]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=ocrenter]

I don’t think the trade war will end with Trump, President Pence will be equally if not harder on China. The Dems will not go the other way either come 2020.

Btw, news out of Taiwan is China is facing real GDP growth of 1.6% this year and likely negative GDP next year along with 10 million new unemployed. Things are going from bad to worse over there.[/quote]

I am replying to this from the other thread.

I agree on the anti China sentiment in Washington. It shows how our policy makers are talking from both sides is their mouths. On the one hand, China is a threat; and on the other hand, China cannot succeed because their system is corrupt, inefficient or whatever.

The real fear is that China will succeed and develop an alternative model to the western order, in which case Francis Fukuyama’s end of history will be proven wrong.

A German minister (forgot which one) denounced China’s growing influence but said it’s up to the West to give a more attractive option to any country that wants to do business with China

Do you really think China will go into recession? I know the narrative is that china’s statistics are fake and political. But you can’t lie about growth rates more than 1 year, else the math no longer works and the deception becomes self-evident.

My take on China is that their political model is worse for individual freedom. But their censorship system prevents fake news and irrational populism. Also, at critical stages of economic development (now the 4th industrial revolution) you need large amounts of capital for puclic insfrastructure. Think of what the interstate highway system has done for America, not all good and lots of bad, but it has driven economic growth. The private sector could not have done it.[/quote]

Kevin Rudd in November of this year: “we actually don’t know at the moment what the real growth rate is, when things get really bad on the growth rate, the Chinese statistical claim on the growth rate can border on the creative.”

Also remember why 45 millions of Chinese peasants died during the Great Leap Forward. Starting at the collective farm level there was over-estimate of grain production and granary storage. Moving up to township level, the numbers get padded some more, at the county level, some more padding, at provincial level a bit more padding, so at the end the central government received grain storage and production data that was wildly out of line with reality. Everything was based on central planning, and because central planners planned using hugely inflated data, they didn’t see the shortage coming, the famine happened and people died.

The structural system that was in place then is still in place now. People are promoted based on GDP growth rate. So it pays to cook up the numbers at every level of government. Once the data gets to the central government, it then does the creative statistical game Kevin Rudd describes, the end result is the claim of 6.5% growth rate but actual growth rate of 1.6%.

As for fake news, the People’s Daily and Global Times are the grand daddy of fake news, Fox’s got nothing on them!

[FlyerInHi]

Lets say you start at 100 at the beginning of year. End of year, at 6.5%, you will have 106.5, or 101.6 at 1.6%. The lies must get bigger and bigger over time to keep up the prior lies.

If China has been lying about economic data for decades, then it really is a paper tiger and will collapse anytime. You must have read Gordon Chang’s book. He’s a frequent commentator on Fox. Everytime i watch a Fox segment on China, I want to ask them how a corrupt, inefficient and collapsing state be a threat to the USA?

Martin Jacques says that after 40 years, we are only at the beginning of China’s transformation; and that the idea of modernity will increasingly be China.
Sometimes I meet people visiting the USA for the first time. There are surprised at how low tech we are especially in our infrastructure and urban architecture.

[ocrenter]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Lets say you start at 100 at the beginning of year. End of year, at 6.5%, you will have 106.5, or 101.6 at 1.6%. The lies must get bigger and bigger over time to keep up the prior lies.

If China has been lying about economic data for decades, then it really is a paper tiger and will collapse anytime. You must have read Gordon Chang’s book. He’s a frequent commentator on Fox. Everytime i watch a Fox segment on China, I want to ask them how a corrupt, inefficient and collapsing state be a threat to the USA?

Martin Jacques says that after 40 years, we are only at the beginning of China’s transformation; and that the idea of modernity will increasingly be China.
Sometimes I meet people visiting the USA for the first time. There are surprised at how low tech we are especially in our infrastructure and urban architecture.[/quote]

You are falling back to typical talking points by just blaming Opinions opposed to you as Faux News based, or based on commentators that’s Fox News based.

The person that mentioned creative messaging of gdp figures is Kevin Rudd, is he a Fox News contributor? Btw, Rudd also mentioned China itself identified 10 major vital economic reform measures several years ago, 2/10 is the report card on that one…

The source of Taiwanese news report of 1.6% growth and likely negative growth is from an prominent economic professor from the Chinese People’s University. The guy’s lecture online got pulled by China within a day, but went viral in Taiwan.

You were right about China, it was moving in the right direction, then Xi took over and everything started going in the other direction.

Like I said before, when a government bring a country to the lowest of the low, a fast rebound for a few decades is easy. But then if there is no standardized rule of law and general corruption at all level of government, growth can not continue on pace. Was there an attempt to keep the growth going? Of course, that’s why the massive debt driven growth over the last several years. That’s the making of a bubble.

Is China a paper tiger? China is essentially 5 new Asian Tigers standing on top of each other in a Dinosaur custom scaring everyone in sight. The prior Asian Tigers all liberalized at the same growth point, but the 5 new Asian Tigers are trapped in the dinosaur custom and glued to each other and managed by an all powerful Winnie the Pooh. That’s the problem.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ocrenter]

The person that mentioned creative messaging of gdp figures is Kevin Rudd, is he a Fox News contributor? Btw, Rudd also mentioned China itself identified 10 major vital economic reform measures several years ago, 2/10 is the report card on that one…

The source of Taiwanese news report of 1.6% growth and likely negative growth is from an prominent economic professor from the Chinese People’s University. The guy’s lecture online got pulled by China within a day, but went viral in Taiwan.

You were right about China, it was moving in the right direction, then Xi took over and everything started going in the other direction.

Like I said before, when a government bring a country to the lowest of the low, a fast rebound for a few decades is easy. But then if there is no standardized rule of law and general corruption at all level of government, growth can not continue on pace. Was there an attempt to keep the growth going? Of course, that’s why the massive debt driven growth over the last several years. That’s the making of a bubble.
[/quote]

I am sure china lies about many things such as crime stats or other socio economic performance data. But lying about GDP is much harder because having to issue adjusted figures later on would be too embarrassing.

If you look at the growth chart, you will see that Taiwan and korea’s growth slowed down markedly when they became democracies. Then corruption scandals have been common features.

The Philippines is plagued with corruption. The best performing countries in east Asia now are Vietnam, China, Singapore, Myanmar. So democracy is no assurance of good economic performance. Thailand however was doing better under a democratic government.

China has only really challenged the USA since 2008. The success of its high speed rail network, it’s prowess in infrastructure and its tech industry are what worry us. Plus you have military buildup, Belt and Road and assertive foreign policy. We in USA get heartburn over the Chinese base in Djibouti and China taking over the port of Haifa. But Djibouti and Israel, as small countries, are playing their cards very well.
So when you say Xi Jinping’s China is bad for the world, the small countries disagree because they can now use China to negotiate with the USA better.

Yes, China is only 2/10 done with self identified economic reform. China will open up more as a deal with Trump (not a deal because it was going to it anyway). That will benefit China and Europe more than us because the China-Europe trade is more diverse and balanced with exchange of manufactured goods. We sell China mostly agricultural commodities and airplanes.

As Trump likes to say, we will see …

[FlyerInHi]

[img_assist|nid=26741|title=Global Economy in 2030|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=85]

This what Martin Jacques is forecasting for 2030. We will see if he’s right.
I hope to live in Asia part of the year in retirement so I can experience the changes first hand. Should be very interesting.

[ocrenter]

[quote=FlyerInHi][img_assist|nid=26741|title=Global Economy in 2030|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=85]

This what Martin Jacques is forecasting for 2030. We will see if he’s right.
I hope to live in Asia part of the year in retirement so I can experience the changes first hand. Should be very interesting.[/quote]

Brian, when one engage in conversation on China, we need to determine whether we are discussing near-term or future expectations.

Future expectation is for China to become the biggest economy of the world, eclipsing the US. This is basic math based on population size and potential economic growth.

The question is is this future expectation going to come about via a straight line at 6-7% growth rate per year, or will there be significant dips in between caused by policy mistakes and simple systemic incompatibility as the economy evolves.

The CCP needs a straight 6-7% growth trend to justify its existence. It has borrowed heavily at all levels of government as well as some very creative math to maintain that over the last decade. Do you really believe there will be no dips ahead?

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