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FlyerInHi.
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October 18, 2018 at 12:51 PM #811078October 23, 2018 at 4:26 PM #811096
FlyerInHi
GuestSo on my downday, I watched this documentary from Singapore, not exactly a place that’s kissass to China. In fact, Singapore has been a reliable US ally for a long time. Seems like China is opening its borders to neighboring countries and encouraging development.
October 25, 2018 at 4:29 PM #811118GuestI think we need to look at China objectively with a global view. China has done a lot for the world, especially when it come to mass producing cheap things such as household goods and appliances that people need. Poor in Ethiopia and Rwanda appreciate access to consumer good.
Look what China has done for Ethiopia. Why didn’t we do it?
Skyscrapers, trains and roads: How Addis Ababa came to look like a Chinese city
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/addis-ababa-china-construction-style/index.htmlNovember 19, 2018 at 11:43 AM #811222GuestThe NYT has a whole series on China.
It’s pretty objective even though sometimes they fall back on stereotypes that they want to avoidThe land That Failed to Fail
The West was sure the Chinese approach would not work. It just had to wait. It’s still waiting.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.htmlThe American Dream is alive. In China
By JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZ QUOCTRUNG BUIThe New York Times
Mon., Nov. 19, 2018
Imagine you have to make a bet.
There are two 18-year-olds, one in China, the other in the United States, both poor and short on prospects. You have to pick the one with the better chance at upward mobility.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/11/19/the-american-dream-is-alive-in-china.htmlNovember 19, 2018 at 1:18 PM #811223The-Shoveler
ParticipantI would unequivocally pick the one living in the USA.
There are still Very far more Chinese coming here than leaving.
November 19, 2018 at 2:18 PM #811224Guest[quote=The-Shoveler]I would unequivocally pick the one living in the USA.
There are still Very far more Chinese coming here than leaving.[/quote]
Maybe they became relatively well-educated in China and became world citizens.
Did you see that the Trump Administration has a plan to ban chinese students because they are spies. There are about 350,000 foreign students from China. Are they spies or are they longing to become Americans because we’re such a great country?
A few days ago, I met a Georgian refugee from the former Soviet Union working at Home Depot. He was an engineer back home. We talked about America. If you listen to honest answers from new immigrants, you don’t get the typical “American Dream” answer of past generation of Americans.
The world today is multicultural. Easy jet travel and communications mean that today’s immigrants are becoming world citizens.
November 20, 2018 at 12:51 PM #811225ocrenter
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]The NYT has a whole series on China.
It’s pretty objective even though sometimes they fall back on stereotypes that they want to avoidThe land That Failed to Fail
The West was sure the Chinese approach would not work. It just had to wait. It’s still waiting.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.htmlThe American Dream is alive. In China
By JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZ QUOCTRUNG BUIThe New York Times
Mon., Nov. 19, 2018
Imagine you have to make a bet.
There are two 18-year-olds, one in China, the other in the United States, both poor and short on prospects. You have to pick the one with the better chance at upward mobility.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/11/19/the-american-dream-is-alive-in-china.html%5B/quote%5DThe answer to the question of why China grew so fast is Taiwan. Which is well covered in the NYT article. Without Taiwanese and HK businesses coming into the vacuum and injecting economic know-how in the late 80’s, the take off would not have happened so quickly with minimal roadblocks.
One way to look at China’s rise was that China was so economically depressed when it first opened up it really have had no other way to go but up. China’s CCP got so much praise for China’s rapid growth, but if you think about it a bit, they totally destroyed all prior economic vital signs and had the country at near flat line, then when the patient came back alive they are now the heroes??? As for the economic playbook, they essentially just borrowed the same playbook used by Taiwan, and since Taiwanese businessmen were able to bridge the gap given the same linguistic and cultural base, they were able to replicate and copy the same growth Taiwan experienced in the 70’s.
Now Taiwan has created a great playbook for democratization for China to plagiarize and copy as well, free of charge. Problem is China doesn’t want to play that game because they see themselves as the KMT within Taiwan, which is now decimated and marginalized.
November 20, 2018 at 7:40 PM #811226GuestPoints well taken, ocrenter.
So now, either China democratizes or fails? If those are the 2 options, then we got nothing to worry about.
Taiwan is actually now stagnating and experiencing a brain drain to China.
I think the model for China is Singapore — ultra capitalist in some ways, and a nanny state in many other ways. And the amazing thing is that Singapore does it with government spending at 18% of GDP. I believe if there’s a real estate crash in China, they will roll over the non performing assets into a Singapore style public housing.
Singapore hosted ASEAN last week. Hank Paulson was there. I watched some speeches and interview with PM Lee Hsien Long.
November 20, 2018 at 8:19 PM #811227Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Points well taken, ocrenter.
So now, either China democratizes or fails? If those are the 2 options, then we got nothing to worry about.
Taiwan is actually now stagnating and experiencing a brain drain to China.
I think the model for China is Singapore — ultra capitalist in some ways, and a nanny state in many other ways. And the amazing thing is that Singapore does it with government spending at 18% of GDP. I believe if there’s a real estate crash in China, they will roll over the non performing assets into a Singapore style public housing.
Singapore hosted ASEAN last week. Hank Paulson was there. I watched some speeches and interview with PM Lee Hsien Long.[/quote]
Actually Taiwanese businesses know China really well, most are fleeing China in droves. They see the bubble bursting and they are abandoning ship.
Singapore as a City State used as a model for the world’s biggest country by population? That’s a tough one.
China did not have to democratize now. They could have continued slow and gradual liberalization. Again, Taiwan generated a very viable playbook: repressive regime gave way to benign authoritarian government with sham local elections, grip on speech loosen up gradually over time, sham elections get a little more fair and more national and consequential elections are then added. Soon President is elected indirectly via representatives, after that direct election of the highest office of the land.
This playbook could have been implemented in HK and Shanghai locally. After all, they invented the very pragmatic one country two systems policy. They could have set a standard where if a province or metropolitan region reaches a certain gdp per capital or educational level, they earn some level of local election and so on. Had that been implemented, Taiwan would likely get sucked into the orbit very quickly.
The opposite is true, things are getting much more authoritarian. American and other foreign expatriates are reporting that the crack down on personal liberty is very real, the restrictions are getting worse, and the government interference on daily speech is casting a shadow on everything. The grip is getting tighter and Taiwan sees that and is running the other way. The US is looking at this and realizing China is not following the post war playbook followed by Japan, Taiwan, S.Korea… this is turning out to be a repay of Hitlers’ Germany or Imperial Japan. Trump maybe the one starting the trade war, but both parties are on the same side on this one.
November 21, 2018 at 11:42 AM #811228Guestocrenter, lets say you are right. If people are fleeing China, does it not follow that China will implode on its own like the Soviet Union?
Do you believe that Trump’s trade war is about “freedom” or “human rights”? It’s about forcing Xi to abandon China 2025; you know, social engineering that cannot possibly work.I agree that there is some capital flight now. However, if well managed, the Chinese diaspora actually is a great export vehicle for China. Chinese “expats/inmigrants” know China and trade with China.
Everything that China has done and is doing has been tried before. You have to recognize China’s successes where other countries have failed at the same things.
Like the NYT story says, we, the West, are still waiting for China to fail.
About the Singapore model, it’s not about copying a city State.
Lee Kuan Yew Singapore with “Asian values” regardless of ideology.
China is doing “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. Capitalism in this case not meaning totally private ownership or initiative, but using capital/money to achieve development goals. It’s the logical continuation of “to get rich is glorious.” The “freedom” and “democracy” we cherish in the West are secondary to money and wealth in Asia, at least until they catch up to the West. I think they are correct because money is freedom.November 21, 2018 at 12:34 PM #811229Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]ocrenter, lets say you are right. If people are fleeing China, does it not follow that China will implode on its own like the Soviet Union?
Do you believe that Trump’s trade war is about “freedom” or “human rights”? It’s about forcing Xi to abandon China 2025; you know, social engineering that cannot possibly work.[/quote]People are not fleeing China. RICH people are fleeing China. As for China imploding. That’s hard to say, but the fear of imploding may have been the reason for the tightening grip since Xi came on board. Trump’s trade war has nothing to do with freedom or human rights, he doesn’t care about that. The trade war is because China is trying to challenge the US’s Unipolar world.
[quote=FlyerInHi]
Everything that China has done and is doing has been tried before. You have to recognize China’s successes where other countries have failed at the same things.
Like the NYT story says, we, the West, are still waiting for China to fail.[/quote]
Reason for China’s success is you had Taiwan/HK exporting their know-how, Japan’s ongoing investment and contribution, and the US keeping its market open for Chinese exports. Interestingly ALL 3 major players that led to China’s success are routinely vilified within China.
[quote=FlyerInHi]
About the Singapore model, it’s not about copying a city State.
Lee Kuan Yew Singapore with “Asian values” regardless of ideology.
China is doing “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. Capitalism in this case not meaning totally private ownership or initiative, but using capital/money to achieve development goals. It’s the logical continuation of “to get rich is glorious.” The “freedom” and “democracy” we cherish in the West are secondary to money and wealth in Asia, at least until they catch up to the West. I think they are correct because money is freedom.[/quote]This Asian Values BS is ridiculous. This is essentially a stereotype that justifies the withholding of civil liberties to 1/5 of humanity.
Asian societies such as Japan and S.Korea and Taiwan are thriving with democratic values, yet a totalitarian city state half the size of LA keep getting brought up as the ultimate case for Asian Value. WHY??? Because it fits the narrative of China. And meanwhile a model that is working well for 200 million Asians are tossed off to the side, once again, because China finds that model to be inconvenient. But China apologists like yourself will continue to push the Singapore model, and completely ignore the Taiwan model, the S.Korea model, or the Japan model. Taiwan and S.Korea and Japan proved they can get rich, be glorious, and still have civil liberty and freedom. Try looking into that, will you?
November 21, 2018 at 2:50 PM #811230Myriad
ParticipantChina is following the China model, not Singapore. The goal is a to create a superpower that challenges the West.
It’s not just economic, it’s social, political, miltiary, etc.
What they are promoting is the China model of growth, but don’t worry about personal freedoms, minority groups, or global norms regarding trade, individual country rights, maritime rights, etc.
While at the moment this has been very successful for China for the last 3 decades, there is a paradigm shift on-going. We are clearly heading towards a Cold War. What could happen is that the Indo-Pacific splits into two spheres where open trade, freedom of navigation, and easy access are no longer allowed. Either you are in the Sino sphere or the Anti-Sino (Australia, US, Japan, S Korea, India?) sphere. Already companies are contingency planning for multiple production lines inside/outside of China.
Either way, unless you’re part of the wealthy or ruling class, there is going to a net negative to quality of life.On a side note, this came out last week:
https://www.uscc.gov/Annual_Reports/2018-annual-report
Inside was this tidbit
“Congress direct the U.S. Department of Commerce and other relevant government agencies to prepare an unclassified public report, with a classified annex, examining and assessing the adequacy of U.S. export control policy for dual-use technology as it relates to U.S. treatment of Hong Kong and China as separate customs areas”
So all that needs to be done is to treat any Sino sphere country as part of the China custom area and severely limit what types of goods are allowed to be exported.November 22, 2018 at 11:23 AM #811231Guestocrenter, you focus on “freedom” because you want Taiwan independence.
I focus on wealth and development. China is perfecting mass production which has given us a world of plenty. With public infrastructure, China knows how do build fast. It’s precisely the competition with the West that China is helping develop the world. I mean look at Addis Ababa. Ethiopia used to be a basket case but it’s now a fast developing country thanks to trade with China.
Myriad, are we really afraid of the China model? It we really do believe in our heart of hearts that a government lead model is bound to failure, then we have nothing to fear.
If we believe that policies do work, then we should come up with development policies of our own. If we give a better deal, then countries around Asia and the world will naturally follow us.
As far a selling technology to China, what do you propose we sell to China other than agriculture to balance trade? The natural economic order is for more advanced economiies to sell higher tech. So by refusing to sell our highest technology to China, we are violating a fundamental economic law — maybe for good national security reasons, but still against good economics. So the trade deficit is of our own making.
I hate to say it, but the ball is our court to provide an alternative to China. If don’t want countries to fall into Chinese “debt traps” then we should give them grants. All talk, no action.
PS: when our large banks lent billions to Latin America in the past, causing economic and currency crises, was that debt traps? Unfortunately, we never saw highspeed rail and beautiful airports as a result.
November 23, 2018 at 8:00 AM #811232Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]ocrenter, you focus on “freedom” because you want Taiwan independence.
I focus on wealth and development. China is perfecting mass production which has given us a world of plenty. With public infrastructure, China knows how do build fast. It’s precisely the competition with the West that China is helping develop the world. I mean look at Addis Ababa. Ethiopia used to be a basket case but it’s now a fast developing country thanks to trade with China.
[/quote]
Freedom/basic human right vs wealth/development are not mutually exclusive. China is simply scaling up the Asian Tigers model, but with a twist, which is stifling the next stage of development, aka social and political liberalization. Ethiopia is too early to tell, but it is essentially following the same Asian Tigers model. The question here is does it continue with the China model of perpetual totalitarianism?
[quote=FlyerInHi]
Myriad, are we really afraid of the China model? It we really do believe in our heart of hearts that a government lead model is bound to failure, then we have nothing to fear.
If we believe that policies do work, then we should come up with development policies of our own. If we give a better deal, then countries around Asia and the world will naturally follow us.
[/quote]
The China model is concerning because it takes what previously worked quite well, aka the Asian Tigers model, and twisted it into a perpetual authoritarian model. Authoritarianism is dangerous because personality cult is important, as is the need to always find foreign scapegoats, which leads to wars.
[quote=FlyerInHi]
As far a selling technology to China, what do you propose we sell to China other than agriculture to balance trade? The natural economic order is for more advanced economiies to sell higher tech. So by refusing to sell our highest technology to China, we are violating a fundamental economic law — maybe for good national security reasons, but still against good economics. So the trade deficit is of our own making.
[/quote]
the trade deficit will exist with or without China. reason is simple, manufactured goods and textile are simply cheaper in developing countries. The question is knowing China’s ultimate goal is to push a totalitarian nationalistic worldview with eventual global dominance, do you still allow the trade deficit with China, or do you move the trade deficit to other developing economies that pose far less threat.
[quote=FlyerInHi]
I hate to say it, but the ball is our court to provide an alternative to China. If don’t want countries to fall into Chinese “debt traps” then we should give them grants. All talk, no action.PS: when our large banks lent billions to Latin America in the past, causing economic and currency crises, was that debt traps? Unfortunately, we never saw highspeed rail and beautiful airports as a result.[/quote]
you are on point on this one. we got complacent and overextended with the middle east wars. We invented the Asian Tigers model and we should have pushed it harder. Instead we fought wars after wars because of our dependence and addiction to middle east oil. I will say this, China construction is really shoddy, it falls apart very quickly, we are talking just 2-3 years. So don’t get too enamored with the fanfare and propaganda. It isn’t all that rosy.
November 23, 2018 at 11:38 AM #811233Guestocrenter, as a liberal I’m with you.
However, the USA is not exactly the promoter of liberal values and human rights. Saudi Arabia is a lot worse than China and yet we support them.
Right now, US foreign policy is not based on principles but simply preserving hegemonic power. That’s against international law where all countries are theoretically among equals.
It does no good to complain about China. We have to come up with an alternative to China so countries around the world reject to China model and follow our example.
Did you see that Vietnam is following the China model and elevated to Party Secretary to President? Why? Because the pro-western faction was humiliated when the US pulled out of TPP. So the pro-China authoritarian faction is on the ascent.
Did you see that the Philippines signed business deals with China?
Do you know that along the China Myanmar border, Burmese students are welcomed to cross the border and attend Chinese public schools for free? You may think that this is China brainwashing the Burmese, but why don’t we do the same along the US Mexico border?
Do you know that along the China Vietnam border, day workers are allowed to come and work in China and that immigration makes it convenient for them to cross so that they get to work on time everyday? Do you know that traders can cross into China and sell up to 8000 RMB per day duty free?
How does it look to the world when China is opening borders and we are militarizing our borders.
I recently watched a TED Talk by Graham Allison, the author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
That redneck (he calls himself that) said that the China has Belt and Road, so we should have a new Marshall Plan to counter China. It’s an interesting talk where Allison presents important charts on China’s development. He also calls Xi Jinping the most competent leader in the world today. Unfortunately, most Americans are still stuck in the 1990 or early 2000s when it comes to understanding China.https://youtu.be/XewnyUJgyA4
Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham AllisonRight now, all we have is fear and rancor against China. We don’t have a foreign policy based on principles, peace and development for the world. If we want to preserve our status as #1 we need to act like a big brother who generously takes care of his little brothers around the world.
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