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FlyerInHi.
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June 19, 2019 at 5:26 PM #812806June 19, 2019 at 11:49 PM #812807
FlyerInHi
GuestShoveler, your comments show that we can’t deal with China effectively because we won’t admit they’re successful and we can’t decide if they are our competitor or our enemy.
If they are our competitor and they work hard, then we need to work harder to out compete them. But we can’t tell them to abandon a planned economy anymore than they can tell us to stop being capitalists. If they are our enemy, then there will be war.
Here is what Kevin Rudd expects the deal this year to be.
Trump will declare a commitment by the Chinese to buy American farm products as a major victory. But that will mean that the Chinese state will do exactly what we don’t want them to do which is to plan and support economic activity. Exception: buy American products, including maybe some Boeing planes.
June 26, 2019 at 12:13 PM #812850GuestWow, I didn’t know that only China makes giant cranes for port operations. Very interesting!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/these-giant-cranes-show-why-the-next-fight-in-the-us-china-trade-war-could-be-so-damaging/2019/06/26/1e6f5d4c-975f-11e9-830a-21b9b36b64ad_story.html?noredirect=onI’m going to predict that there will not be a substantial deal at the G20. It will be something like “let’s continue to talk”. The western press built up the anticipation of a deal and that is telling the Chinese that America wants a deal more badly than they do, so they don’t have incentives to give.
I was driving in La Jolla near UTC and I was looking at the work they are doing on the viaducts — everything is built one-off, on site. No wonder it takes 10 years just for one rail line. So depressing considering that China builds the bridge spans in factories and they have machines to install them.
July 22, 2019 at 11:21 PM #813096GuestExcellent interview with Kai Fu Lee by Lex Fridman
August 22, 2019 at 3:17 PM #813294GuestSo it looks like Europe wants to follow the China model. .
The USA sure is following the China model when it comes to huawei.It was a huge mistake for Europe no to have built a firewall and let American internet companies operate extraterritorially without regulations.
You can be sure that if GAFA were Chinese, we never have allowed them access to our consumers. Heck, we are already paranoid at Chinese companies owning dating platforms.
The truth is that whoever has tech leadership wants an open system to force the others to adopt the dominant technology by default.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/22/europe-plan-trump-tech-companies-1472326
If will be interesting to see if the Chinese get leadership consumer application of AI and quantum computing. Will we roll over and adopt their standards? I think not.
August 23, 2019 at 9:24 AM #813304spdrun
ParticipantChina and Trumpie just escalated their trade war to volume level 11.
August 23, 2019 at 10:03 AM #813307GuestDo you think the EU will be successful at state led capitalism or will it fail miserably with all the money wasted?
Is these an inherent flaw in dirigisme (such as it being against the laws of economics, whatever they are) or it is just management?
EU officials have drafted a plan for a sovereign wealth fund that would invest 100 billion euros ($110 billion) in “high-potential European companies,” according to reports in the FT and Politico.
August 23, 2019 at 10:12 AM #813308The-Shoveler
ParticipantRobots
Mia Nagasaka, Executive Director for Tokyo Equity Research explains how #AI #robotics and #automation could present a major opportunity for Japan in a #MorganStanleyMinute.
— Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) July 2, 2019
August 23, 2019 at 10:42 AM #813309GuestHaha. Japan is done with. They are so desperate that they have national security exports controls against Korea.
Japan was insular and stingy. They should have had they own Belt and Road to spread wealth and development. Japan still uses fax machines and paper vouchers. They are becoming irrelevant. I read the Economist and made the mistake of investing in Sony and Docomo many years ago. Ha! (The Japanese like to say Ha!)[quote=The-Shoveler]Robots
Mia Nagasaka, Executive Director for Tokyo Equity Research explains how #AI #robotics and #automation could present a major opportunity for Japan in a #MorganStanleyMinute.
— Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) July 2, 2019
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August 23, 2019 at 11:23 AM #813312ParticipantIMO the country with the most tech and the least liabilities wins.
IMO China will find it a lot harder to maintain control of it’s belt and road than it was to build.
Actually I think it will never get completed.
Anyway we will see.
August 23, 2019 at 11:41 AM #813313Myriad
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Haha. Japan is done with. They are so desperate that they have national security exports controls against Korea.
Japan was insular and stingy. They should have had they own Belt and Road to spread wealth and development. Japan still uses fax machines and paper vouchers. They are becoming irrelevant. I read the Economist and made the mistake of investing in Sony and Docomo many years ago. Ha! (The Japanese like to say Ha!)
[/quote]
Japan has lots of issues. But with South Korea, they actually have an upper hand as all the semiconductor manufacturing in SK rely on Japanese exports. Japan is a lot less dependent on SK. But what this actually shows is a complete lack of leadership from the US.Japan actually has larger investments in SE Asia than China’s Belt and Road. “Collectively, Japan owned $1.667 trillion in foreign assets in the third quarter of 2018, while China owned $1.542 trillion in the second quarter. And has been outpacing China since 2016
“https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-silent-belt-and-road-is-beating-chinas-11555923604The China-US Cold War is happening: economic ties, technology, military are all heading that way. There will be at least two systems (legal/technology)/spheres of influence. The Europeans will be the losers in 20 years. Welfare costs, regulation, aging population, behind on technology etc. Russia included in that too – What we see today is the last gasp of Russia’s influence. Seriously? Nuclear powered cruise missiles that spew radiation as they fly around?
August 23, 2019 at 1:54 PM #813314GuestJapan’s investment are private such as Toyota factories in Thailand.
But China is building infrastructure that leads to even more development
Shoveler, the problem with US policy is that we talk from.both sides of our mouths. We complain about Chinese policies that we are so confident will fail. Why exert all the effort?
It will be game over when the HSR connects Thailand to China. Thailand has been foot dragging because they are still ostensibly in our sphere.
When western tourists do YouTube videos on travel to China be train, you will know China has won. .China also benefits from the huge diaspora which is the business elite and trading class in Asian countries other than Japan and Korea.
Btw, according to Koshore Mabhubani, Bill Clinton made a speech at Yale about the rise of China. He’s never repeated it again because in our political culture, treating China as a peer and competitor is political suicide. So any American politician who warns about China must say something like “but China is an evil communist system that oppresses its people, that massively misallocates resources, destroys the environment, that cannot work, will not work and is bound to fail”. We’ve been repeating the same line for decades.
Christopher Coons was interviewed by Ian Bremmer and he pretty much said that we need a response to Belt and Road. That’s tacit admission that Belt and Road is in fact something to worry about.
If we live long enough, we will see cities such as Lagos, Nigeria become wealthy megalopolises thanks to Belt and Road. And the benefits will accrue to China, not the West.
August 23, 2019 at 2:41 PM #813316ParticipantAssuming that China has sufficient capital to build Belt & Road, which is not entirely clear. If we are in a total economic war with China, they will not have sufficient access to US $ to pay for investments. In fact, capital will flee China if they devalue their currency.
That’s not even counting if US decides to cut China out of the US banking system.
Their existing investments have been mixed because in their haste, there is a lot of waste and corruption. For every $1 spent probably somewhere around $.40 is wasted or “lost”.But Africa is the next round of the Cold War, just like in the previous Cold War.
Just in, Trump adds an addition 5% tariff on all Chinese goods.
August 23, 2019 at 3:08 PM #813319GuestI agree but it’s not in our interest to cut off China either. Too late for that. We are now interdependent.
Devaluation will cause capital flight, but also new FDI. I have a Chinese friend who is investing/parking money in US apartments. He got $1/2 million out recently. But the money will flow back especially from Thailand, Malaysia, whatever, if the currency weakens.
Despite inefficiencies, China can build infrastructure a lot cheaper than us. How much more do you think it would be for American contractors to build a bridge in Panama? The cost of flying and housing engineers and roughnecks to and fro would be enough to feed a small Central American city. In USA, I once rented a “luxury” property to a contractor on a project for 1 year. He didn’t care, he upcharged the general contractor. He liked my condo with facilities and gym better than a hotel.
Graham Ellison talked about his Harvard student who is now Mayor of a Chinese city. They built a bridge in 48 hours. A tiny bride in Cambridge, MA took over 2 years no rebuild.
But anyway, if we are so confident in victory, then we should just say “China will fail on its own, let’s worry about something else.” I agree with Keyu Jin of LSE. The trade war is a strategic gift to China because it will force to reform. It will be more of a blessing than the painful reforms they undertook prior to joining WTO.
We shall see…..
August 23, 2019 at 3:15 PM #813320Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]I agree but it’s not in our interest to cut off China either. Too late for that. We are now interdependent.
Devaluation will cause capital flight, but also new FDI. I have a Chinese friend who is investing/parking money in US apartments. He got $1/2 million out recently. But the money will flow back especially from Thailand, Malaysia, whatever, if the currency weakens. [/quote]
Actually it won’t flow back, because typically SE Asian currencies follow each other in devaluation. Still somewhat theoretical at this point.
I don’t know about that interdependence. If this goes on another 5 years, US-China trade will probably be 10% of where it is today. And that allows for a strategic segregation of economy, technology, etc.
Let’s say US wanted to really stop European trade with China, e.g. could add aviation parts as export restricted to China -> Airbus couldn’t sell aircraft to China or even engines.
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