Catch a Falling Knife? – Chula Vista/ East Lake

[sdrents]

Great forum. The information here is incredibly useful! The long and the short is I’m considering buying in Chula Vista and want your collective input.

My profile plays heavily on the desire to purchase so I give you the short version. I am about 5 years into my profession, my wife stays at home with our young kids. Before kids, in late 03, we participated in the real estate madness. I was outbid by 30-70 K over ask price on the Mission Valley condos we were looking at the time. I thought the market was over blown and walked away on a new construction condo I contracted to buy following some construction delays. I have been renting ever since. Lease is up in a few months and I expect a significant rent increase because the owner bought the condo at peak.

I’m essentially “entry-level” for SD given the one income and desire to keep my debt to income ratio as low as possible. Kids are growing like bean sprouts and I want the family to have a place to settle down and a yard for the kids to play. East Lake/ Otay seem to be the biggest bang for the buck.

Am I risking too much if I buy before years end? Foreclosures and NOD’s are still climbing. Your thoughts? Where will CV be in a year, two, bottom? If not CV, any areas you would recommend?

Thanks for the input.

[Ex-SD]

The entire Eastlake/Otay area is likely to drop another 15-25% (IMHO) over the next three years.

Yes……………..You’re risking a bunch of $$$$$$ if you buy this year because you’ll probably see prices drop 7-10% within the next 12 months.

See this story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bofa10-2008jul10,0,3718095.story

Excerpt from the linked story:
“As for the housing market, Lewis said Bank of America’s latest forecast called for a further 15% decline in home prices nationwide, with the decline going into at least the first quarter of next year.

In the case of California, Florida and other markets that had the biggest booms, a further 20% decline is more realistic, he said.”

[Ex-SD]

The entire Eastlake/Otay area is likely to drop another 15-25% (IMHO) over the next three years.

Yes……………..You’re risking a bunch of $$$$$$ if you buy this year because you’ll probably see prices drop 7-10% within the next 12 months.

See this story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bofa10-2008jul10,0,3718095.story

Excerpt from the linked story:
“As for the housing market, Lewis said Bank of America’s latest forecast called for a further 15% decline in home prices nationwide, with the decline going into at least the first quarter of next year.

In the case of California, Florida and other markets that had the biggest booms, a further 20% decline is more realistic, he said.”

[Ex-SD]

The entire Eastlake/Otay area is likely to drop another 15-25% (IMHO) over the next three years.

Yes……………..You’re risking a bunch of $$$$$$ if you buy this year because you’ll probably see prices drop 7-10% within the next 12 months.

See this story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bofa10-2008jul10,0,3718095.story

Excerpt from the linked story:
“As for the housing market, Lewis said Bank of America’s latest forecast called for a further 15% decline in home prices nationwide, with the decline going into at least the first quarter of next year.

In the case of California, Florida and other markets that had the biggest booms, a further 20% decline is more realistic, he said.”

[Ex-SD]

The entire Eastlake/Otay area is likely to drop another 15-25% (IMHO) over the next three years.

Yes……………..You’re risking a bunch of $$$$$$ if you buy this year because you’ll probably see prices drop 7-10% within the next 12 months.

See this story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bofa10-2008jul10,0,3718095.story

Excerpt from the linked story:
“As for the housing market, Lewis said Bank of America’s latest forecast called for a further 15% decline in home prices nationwide, with the decline going into at least the first quarter of next year.

In the case of California, Florida and other markets that had the biggest booms, a further 20% decline is more realistic, he said.”

[Ex-SD]

The entire Eastlake/Otay area is likely to drop another 15-25% (IMHO) over the next three years.

Yes……………..You’re risking a bunch of $$$$$$ if you buy this year because you’ll probably see prices drop 7-10% within the next 12 months.

See this story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bofa10-2008jul10,0,3718095.story

Excerpt from the linked story:
“As for the housing market, Lewis said Bank of America’s latest forecast called for a further 15% decline in home prices nationwide, with the decline going into at least the first quarter of next year.

In the case of California, Florida and other markets that had the biggest booms, a further 20% decline is more realistic, he said.”

[cv2]

Hi sdrents,

You did not give a ballpark number for your income so it is hard to tell how much mortgage you could afford.

In general, I felt that CV still has a long way to go (condo is down 30% from peak but SFD is only down 10% so far) while Chula Vista is almost at the bottom (the down side is probably less than 10%).

[cv2]

Hi sdrents,

You did not give a ballpark number for your income so it is hard to tell how much mortgage you could afford.

In general, I felt that CV still has a long way to go (condo is down 30% from peak but SFD is only down 10% so far) while Chula Vista is almost at the bottom (the down side is probably less than 10%).

[cv2]

Hi sdrents,

You did not give a ballpark number for your income so it is hard to tell how much mortgage you could afford.

In general, I felt that CV still has a long way to go (condo is down 30% from peak but SFD is only down 10% so far) while Chula Vista is almost at the bottom (the down side is probably less than 10%).

[cv2]

Hi sdrents,

You did not give a ballpark number for your income so it is hard to tell how much mortgage you could afford.

In general, I felt that CV still has a long way to go (condo is down 30% from peak but SFD is only down 10% so far) while Chula Vista is almost at the bottom (the down side is probably less than 10%).

[cv2]

Hi sdrents,

You did not give a ballpark number for your income so it is hard to tell how much mortgage you could afford.

In general, I felt that CV still has a long way to go (condo is down 30% from peak but SFD is only down 10% so far) while Chula Vista is almost at the bottom (the down side is probably less than 10%).

[temeculaguy]

cv2, you are confusing us. Are you using the abbreviation CV for Carmel Valley, while spelling out Chula Vista, because you compared CV to Chula Vista when the OP was probably using the abbreviation CV for Chula Vista.

Who’s on first?

sdrents, just rent a SFR in Eastlake and see if you like it first, renting is the new black.

[temeculaguy]

cv2, you are confusing us. Are you using the abbreviation CV for Carmel Valley, while spelling out Chula Vista, because you compared CV to Chula Vista when the OP was probably using the abbreviation CV for Chula Vista.

Who’s on first?

sdrents, just rent a SFR in Eastlake and see if you like it first, renting is the new black.

[temeculaguy]

cv2, you are confusing us. Are you using the abbreviation CV for Carmel Valley, while spelling out Chula Vista, because you compared CV to Chula Vista when the OP was probably using the abbreviation CV for Chula Vista.

Who’s on first?

sdrents, just rent a SFR in Eastlake and see if you like it first, renting is the new black.

[temeculaguy]

cv2, you are confusing us. Are you using the abbreviation CV for Carmel Valley, while spelling out Chula Vista, because you compared CV to Chula Vista when the OP was probably using the abbreviation CV for Chula Vista.

Who’s on first?

sdrents, just rent a SFR in Eastlake and see if you like it first, renting is the new black.

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