Carmel Valley Monitor

[sdappraiser]

Touche.. but it would make a difference if there were limited data points and a huge range between high and low. My MLS pull shows 28 sales in May 2006 ranging from $750,000 to $8,486,000 with a median of $1,875,000.

MLS says mean average sales price was $2,453,000, which is closer to what JG is reporting as median. Me thinks he messed up the data.

NO SOUP FOR YOU!

[sdappraiser]

Touche.. but it would make a difference if there were limited data points and a huge range between high and low. My MLS pull shows 28 sales in May 2006 ranging from $750,000 to $8,486,000 with a median of $1,875,000.

MLS says mean average sales price was $2,453,000, which is closer to what JG is reporting as median. Me thinks he messed up the data.

NO SOUP FOR YOU!

[sdcellar]

Hopefully you don’t mean no soup for me as I understand very well that the May 2006 median is (absolutely) dependent upon the mix of sales.

I didn’t make this obvious point because I wasn’t arguing it. I’m also not arguing that there isn’t anything behind the difference.

So either way, I’ll enjoy my soup very much. Mmmm, tastes like lobster bisque.

[sdcellar]

Hopefully you don’t mean no soup for me as I understand very well that the May 2006 median is (absolutely) dependent upon the mix of sales.

I didn’t make this obvious point because I wasn’t arguing it. I’m also not arguing that there isn’t anything behind the difference.

So either way, I’ll enjoy my soup very much. Mmmm, tastes like lobster bisque.

[Artifact]

I have had to deal with highly variable data in other fields – I think what might be interesting to plot in that La Jolla data set, if it were available, would be to plot the interquartile range, or even just plot each point within the interquartile range –

Not to insult anyone, but to explain what that is – basically divide the entire range of values into quarters – the median is the 50th percentile – and plot all values between the 25th and 75th percentile or just the 25th, 50th(median) and 75th. Still has many of the problems associated with median – but gives some insight into the distribution – limited as it may be.

[Artifact]

I have had to deal with highly variable data in other fields – I think what might be interesting to plot in that La Jolla data set, if it were available, would be to plot the interquartile range, or even just plot each point within the interquartile range –

Not to insult anyone, but to explain what that is – basically divide the entire range of values into quarters – the median is the 50th percentile – and plot all values between the 25th and 75th percentile or just the 25th, 50th(median) and 75th. Still has many of the problems associated with median – but gives some insight into the distribution – limited as it may be.

[sdappraiser]

NO SOUP FOR JG and the soup kitchen he wants to open up in La Jolla.

Artifact, knock yourself out. May 2006 closed SFR in 92037

750,000
930,000 
945,000 
990,000 
1,020,000 
1,085,000
1,150,000 
1,262,500
1,475,000
1,493,000 
1,510,000 
1,650,000 
1,665,000
1,875,000 
2,115,000
2,330,000 
2,500,000 
2,800,000 
2,867,000 
2,900,000 
3,315,000
3,350,000
3,400,000 
4,099,000
4,200,000 
4,350,000 
4,600,000
8,486,000 

[sdappraiser]

NO SOUP FOR JG and the soup kitchen he wants to open up in La Jolla.

Artifact, knock yourself out. May 2006 closed SFR in 92037

750,000
930,000 
945,000 
990,000 
1,020,000 
1,085,000
1,150,000 
1,262,500
1,475,000
1,493,000 
1,510,000 
1,650,000 
1,665,000
1,875,000 
2,115,000
2,330,000 
2,500,000 
2,800,000 
2,867,000 
2,900,000 
3,315,000
3,350,000
3,400,000 
4,099,000
4,200,000 
4,350,000 
4,600,000
8,486,000 

[New_Renter]

While I’m no math whiz (as amply demonstrated on a previous thread), when there is an “even” number of data points you have to average the two data points in the middle of the set (the 14th & 15th in this case). The median of the data set above is the average of $1,875,000 and $2,115,000, which is $1,995,000. See, helping your kid with their math homework does pay some dividends! 😉

[New_Renter]

While I’m no math whiz (as amply demonstrated on a previous thread), when there is an “even” number of data points you have to average the two data points in the middle of the set (the 14th & 15th in this case). The median of the data set above is the average of $1,875,000 and $2,115,000, which is $1,995,000. See, helping your kid with their math homework does pay some dividends! 😉

[sdappraiser]

I’ll consider myself schooled.

[sdappraiser]

I’ll consider myself schooled.

[Artifact]

Here is a simple plot of the may 2006 data – the box represents the interquartile range (i.e. contains the middle 50% of the price range). The line in the box is the median (50th percentile) – the notch around the median is a statistical confidence interval around the median (95% confidence level).

In this data, you can see that the prices are not distributed evenly – the bottom “half” of the box (25th to 50th percentile, or 2nd quartile) is much narrower than the top “half” or 3rd quartile. So in that month, 50% of the houses sold for between ~1.35 and 3.4 million. *sorry about the funny axis mark for 900K – didn’t feel like fixing it.

If we added another month to this, you could then not just compare the median, but the distribution of prices in those “quartiles” – still not perfect by any stretch, but gives you a little more information than just the median.

[img_assist|nid=3499|title= 92037 – May 2006 Sales Prices|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=496]

[Artifact]

Here is a simple plot of the may 2006 data – the box represents the interquartile range (i.e. contains the middle 50% of the price range). The line in the box is the median (50th percentile) – the notch around the median is a statistical confidence interval around the median (95% confidence level).

In this data, you can see that the prices are not distributed evenly – the bottom “half” of the box (25th to 50th percentile, or 2nd quartile) is much narrower than the top “half” or 3rd quartile. So in that month, 50% of the houses sold for between ~1.35 and 3.4 million. *sorry about the funny axis mark for 900K – didn’t feel like fixing it.

If we added another month to this, you could then not just compare the median, but the distribution of prices in those “quartiles” – still not perfect by any stretch, but gives you a little more information than just the median.

[img_assist|nid=3499|title= 92037 – May 2006 Sales Prices|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=496]

[NotCranky]

When I looked at that this morning I thought those spikes on the graph should be tossed. How many houses can be had in La Jolla with a 340k per million discount from prices a few months ago?
A month or two back the Union Trib pointed out that Jamul was the one of the biggest depreciating markets in the county. The inventory there has one of the broadest price ranges in the county.Month to month price comparision data is all over the place to the point of being worthless. Even with a terrible pending/listing ratio actual number of sales have been pretty consistent with exception of a spike in 2003/2004.What does that mean? I am thinking it is just too easy to cherry pick information for “proving” upside or downside arguments, intentionally or unintentionally.

[Author]

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