Carmel Valley Monitor

[sdrealtor]

I like “The Donald” better

BTW You seem a bit bi-polar

[sdrealtor]

I like “The Donald” better

BTW You seem a bit bi-polar

[Anonymous]

Back to CV. I sold 10685 Briarlake Woods in April, 2005 for $900,000. According to zillow, the same exact model 3 doors down (10691) sold recently for $841,000 and change. All my neighbors had Helocs (so did I). One neighbor , with two young kids, said “we’ll never leave.” Again, according to zillow, they just left for a cool million (house was bigger and had a canyon view…of SDGE’s power lines!) IMO, CV is the epicenter of the “live beyond your means” crowd. Sure there are plenty of other examples, but it sure seemed that way to me when I lived there. When the dominoes start to fall, I don’t think CV has anything special protecting it. I’m speculating that if La Jolla starts to take bigger hits, then it will officially be major.

[Anonymous]

Back to CV. I sold 10685 Briarlake Woods in April, 2005 for $900,000. According to zillow, the same exact model 3 doors down (10691) sold recently for $841,000 and change. All my neighbors had Helocs (so did I). One neighbor , with two young kids, said “we’ll never leave.” Again, according to zillow, they just left for a cool million (house was bigger and had a canyon view…of SDGE’s power lines!) IMO, CV is the epicenter of the “live beyond your means” crowd. Sure there are plenty of other examples, but it sure seemed that way to me when I lived there. When the dominoes start to fall, I don’t think CV has anything special protecting it. I’m speculating that if La Jolla starts to take bigger hits, then it will officially be major.

[New_Renter]

covered_10,
I totally agree with you. I’ve watched La Jolla closely for years. It is the most over-priced of all. Part of the reason is that according to some, up to 30% of the homes there are owned by non-locals as 3rd or 4th vacation homes. Not to mention that ocean views in La Jolla are probably some of the most coveted in the world. You’ve got these two factors driving additional demand that you don’t have in CV. In general, I think once you see La Jolla, RSF, and to a lesser degree Coronado and Olde Del Mar taking hefty declines, most of SD will have already been in big trouble. These areas are financed more with old money and true wealth. While there are comfortably affluent people in CV, the vast majority are not buying properties for cash like you commonly see in La Jolla. I have a friend who recently sold his house in North La Jolla for $4M+ for cash to a very wealthy Mexican family as their 4th home. You don’t see that kind of thing in CV.
New_Renter

[New_Renter]

covered_10,
I totally agree with you. I’ve watched La Jolla closely for years. It is the most over-priced of all. Part of the reason is that according to some, up to 30% of the homes there are owned by non-locals as 3rd or 4th vacation homes. Not to mention that ocean views in La Jolla are probably some of the most coveted in the world. You’ve got these two factors driving additional demand that you don’t have in CV. In general, I think once you see La Jolla, RSF, and to a lesser degree Coronado and Olde Del Mar taking hefty declines, most of SD will have already been in big trouble. These areas are financed more with old money and true wealth. While there are comfortably affluent people in CV, the vast majority are not buying properties for cash like you commonly see in La Jolla. I have a friend who recently sold his house in North La Jolla for $4M+ for cash to a very wealthy Mexican family as their 4th home. You don’t see that kind of thing in CV.
New_Renter

[sddreaming]

La jolla prices seem to continue to rise. I don’t see any decline yet. Has anyone else? There are some exceptions, like the foreclosure discussed on an earlier thread. I’ve also noticed that real estate up for sale in La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe have price tags that are way above the Zillow zestimates (not that Zillow is all that accurate). Other San Diego areas seem to have a closer asking price and zillow price comparison.

[sddreaming]

La jolla prices seem to continue to rise. I don’t see any decline yet. Has anyone else? There are some exceptions, like the foreclosure discussed on an earlier thread. I’ve also noticed that real estate up for sale in La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe have price tags that are way above the Zillow zestimates (not that Zillow is all that accurate). Other San Diego areas seem to have a closer asking price and zillow price comparison.

[sdcellar]

I’m sure Zillow struggles with the high end areas due to the diversity of properties and typically lower volume of sales history.

That’s not to say it’s completely accurate with home values in fairly homogenous tracts either. Just that clearly that’s an easier problem.

As far as personal observations are concerned, that seems equally difficult for places like La Jolla and RSF, but I’m sure some have a much better feel for it than others.

On the earlier post, let’s hope nobody’s confused CV with LJ. It’s certainly on the ladder to it, but a rung or two (or 3?) below it (s’pose it depends on the size of the ladder…)

[sdcellar]

I’m sure Zillow struggles with the high end areas due to the diversity of properties and typically lower volume of sales history.

That’s not to say it’s completely accurate with home values in fairly homogenous tracts either. Just that clearly that’s an easier problem.

As far as personal observations are concerned, that seems equally difficult for places like La Jolla and RSF, but I’m sure some have a much better feel for it than others.

On the earlier post, let’s hope nobody’s confused CV with LJ. It’s certainly on the ladder to it, but a rung or two (or 3?) below it (s’pose it depends on the size of the ladder…)

[balasr]

sdrealtor said:

“I like “The Donald” better

BTW You seem a bit bi-polar”

I agree. This is too weird, eh? Maybe it’s powayseller or one of her buddies :-).

[balasr]

sdrealtor said:

“I like “The Donald” better

BTW You seem a bit bi-polar”

I agree. This is too weird, eh? Maybe it’s powayseller or one of her buddies :-).

[sdrealtor]

Balasr,
I’m not surprised someone else picked up on that. I was thinking the later.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Balasr,
I’m not surprised someone else picked up on that. I was thinking the later.

sdr

[Anonymous]

New_Renter

I think you’ve got the LJ analysis down pretty good. I have a GF whose family is ranch-size wealthy who own an old 4Br on the sand just yards north of Wind and Sea beach. They go there maybe twice a year and the place looks like it was last re-modeled in the 50’s. They don’t even bother to rent it out (I tried!) and they would never consider selling it. It makes absolutely no difference to them if it’s worth 5 million or 50 million (or $500,000, Ha!) The point is, as you said, is there are a very few properties in LJ that are in fact immune to the bubble frenzy for the reasons you stated. I think you’ll see Beverly Hills tanking before it hits the few good ones in LJ. Now, on the other hand, condos in LJ and some of the lesser quality houses, I think, could very well and probably will go down in the mortgage reset massacre scheduled for this year and next. Just how far is the big question.

[Author]

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