Carmel Valley Monitor

[sdrealtor]

ZK,
I dont disagree that prices will come down though with int rates dropping the resets arent looking all that bad right now. My point is that most of CV will be spending well through a recession in the means they are accustomed to. A dropping home value wont stop a successfult doc from upgrading his plasma or trading in his Benz every 2 or 3 years.

[sdrealtor]

ZK,
I dont disagree that prices will come down though with int rates dropping the resets arent looking all that bad right now. My point is that most of CV will be spending well through a recession in the means they are accustomed to. A dropping home value wont stop a successfult doc from upgrading his plasma or trading in his Benz every 2 or 3 years.

[sdrealtor]

ZK,
I dont disagree that prices will come down though with int rates dropping the resets arent looking all that bad right now. My point is that most of CV will be spending well through a recession in the means they are accustomed to. A dropping home value wont stop a successfult doc from upgrading his plasma or trading in his Benz every 2 or 3 years.

[sdrealtor]

ZK,
I dont disagree that prices will come down though with int rates dropping the resets arent looking all that bad right now. My point is that most of CV will be spending well through a recession in the means they are accustomed to. A dropping home value wont stop a successfult doc from upgrading his plasma or trading in his Benz every 2 or 3 years.

[NotCranky]

“Also, I would guess that there are plenty of people in the newer developments who are typical of the “other half” of CV residents. They make 100k-200k/yr, and they really stretched to buy, figuring on continued appreciation. If prices do continue coming down even at their current (very slow) pace, they may not be able to hang on when their loans reset. ”

I was looking at the same thing. Median household income from 92130 in 93k (from zipskinny.com). The median age is pretty young too. Maybe good incomes but not so deep pockets for a significant portion of the households?To the naked eye it sure looks like they spend like crazy. My guess is the the folks in CV are some of the most employable in the county, definitely high educational achievement on average.

For the fun of it,when I find the right sites, I am going to look at relationships of median income to median house price at peak for various zips..unless someone else has that handy?

[NotCranky]

“Also, I would guess that there are plenty of people in the newer developments who are typical of the “other half” of CV residents. They make 100k-200k/yr, and they really stretched to buy, figuring on continued appreciation. If prices do continue coming down even at their current (very slow) pace, they may not be able to hang on when their loans reset. ”

I was looking at the same thing. Median household income from 92130 in 93k (from zipskinny.com). The median age is pretty young too. Maybe good incomes but not so deep pockets for a significant portion of the households?To the naked eye it sure looks like they spend like crazy. My guess is the the folks in CV are some of the most employable in the county, definitely high educational achievement on average.

For the fun of it,when I find the right sites, I am going to look at relationships of median income to median house price at peak for various zips..unless someone else has that handy?

[NotCranky]

“Also, I would guess that there are plenty of people in the newer developments who are typical of the “other half” of CV residents. They make 100k-200k/yr, and they really stretched to buy, figuring on continued appreciation. If prices do continue coming down even at their current (very slow) pace, they may not be able to hang on when their loans reset. ”

I was looking at the same thing. Median household income from 92130 in 93k (from zipskinny.com). The median age is pretty young too. Maybe good incomes but not so deep pockets for a significant portion of the households?To the naked eye it sure looks like they spend like crazy. My guess is the the folks in CV are some of the most employable in the county, definitely high educational achievement on average.

For the fun of it,when I find the right sites, I am going to look at relationships of median income to median house price at peak for various zips..unless someone else has that handy?

[NotCranky]

“Also, I would guess that there are plenty of people in the newer developments who are typical of the “other half” of CV residents. They make 100k-200k/yr, and they really stretched to buy, figuring on continued appreciation. If prices do continue coming down even at their current (very slow) pace, they may not be able to hang on when their loans reset. ”

I was looking at the same thing. Median household income from 92130 in 93k (from zipskinny.com). The median age is pretty young too. Maybe good incomes but not so deep pockets for a significant portion of the households?To the naked eye it sure looks like they spend like crazy. My guess is the the folks in CV are some of the most employable in the county, definitely high educational achievement on average.

For the fun of it,when I find the right sites, I am going to look at relationships of median income to median house price at peak for various zips..unless someone else has that handy?

[NotCranky]

“Also, I would guess that there are plenty of people in the newer developments who are typical of the “other half” of CV residents. They make 100k-200k/yr, and they really stretched to buy, figuring on continued appreciation. If prices do continue coming down even at their current (very slow) pace, they may not be able to hang on when their loans reset. ”

I was looking at the same thing. Median household income from 92130 in 93k (from zipskinny.com). The median age is pretty young too. Maybe good incomes but not so deep pockets for a significant portion of the households?To the naked eye it sure looks like they spend like crazy. My guess is the the folks in CV are some of the most employable in the county, definitely high educational achievement on average.

For the fun of it,when I find the right sites, I am going to look at relationships of median income to median house price at peak for various zips..unless someone else has that handy?

[New_Renter]

Rustico, Ziprealty neighborhood stats are way different than zipskinny. Ziprealty shows the average income in CV at $155,582.

But in response to sdrealtor, my guess is that only about 20%-30% of CV residents fall into the specific profile you mention, this being a higher percentage than other areas like Scripps Ranch, University City, Encinitas, etc. I’ve worked in CV for 10 years and lived here for nearly a year now. My wife and I know personally (or know through others) a pretty wide sampling swath of SFR homeowners here, and I agree with poster zk that there are a large portion (perhaps 50%) that fit the lower economic profile he mentions. There is a further portion, both in detached and attached housing that have an economic profile even below that. Many have over-stretched themselves to live here and definitely don’t have a big “warchest.” Ziprealty says the average Net Worth in CV is $194,133, which hardly can be called a war chest.

On the other hand, Ziprealty shows the average income in Del Mar (92014) to be $206,423 and in Rancho Santa Fe it’s $400,898. Your going to find far more true c-level executives in those two areas (plus La Jolla and Coronado) than CV. CV likely has more junior level execs and the C-level types are more likely to be from smaller companies, successful RE investors, attorneys, doctors, successful small business owners, etc.

My feeling is that CV is much weaker right now than most people realize. Just take a look at Jim the Realtor’s article today on active vs. pending ratios (http://www.bubbleinfo.com).

With that said, I do agree with you sdrealtor, that CV residents are in a better position to “dig in their heels” than nearly all other areas in San Diego County (except La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF, etc.). And that is exactly what they are doing. Both sdrealtor and SD Realtor have predicted this would happen. Most of the inventory on the CV market today has problems (i.e. bad lot, priced unrealistically, run-down, etc.). But, life rolls on: divorce happens, Kids graduate off to college, people want to move to retirement areas, etc. Most people I know don’t want to retire in CV, on the contrary, they are here for their kids. As this massive housing recession drags on, there will be those in nicer CV properties that just can’t wait for the recovery (people on this board seem to agree that won’t happen until 2010-2012) and they will be forced to keep “marking to market” to get their house sold, dragging down comps further. One thing is for sure, CV will be a fascinating case study when this whole thing is over, and it’s dynamic as part of the SD real estate market is why undue attention seems to be focused there on this blog.

[New_Renter]

Rustico, Ziprealty neighborhood stats are way different than zipskinny. Ziprealty shows the average income in CV at $155,582.

But in response to sdrealtor, my guess is that only about 20%-30% of CV residents fall into the specific profile you mention, this being a higher percentage than other areas like Scripps Ranch, University City, Encinitas, etc. I’ve worked in CV for 10 years and lived here for nearly a year now. My wife and I know personally (or know through others) a pretty wide sampling swath of SFR homeowners here, and I agree with poster zk that there are a large portion (perhaps 50%) that fit the lower economic profile he mentions. There is a further portion, both in detached and attached housing that have an economic profile even below that. Many have over-stretched themselves to live here and definitely don’t have a big “warchest.” Ziprealty says the average Net Worth in CV is $194,133, which hardly can be called a war chest.

On the other hand, Ziprealty shows the average income in Del Mar (92014) to be $206,423 and in Rancho Santa Fe it’s $400,898. Your going to find far more true c-level executives in those two areas (plus La Jolla and Coronado) than CV. CV likely has more junior level execs and the C-level types are more likely to be from smaller companies, successful RE investors, attorneys, doctors, successful small business owners, etc.

My feeling is that CV is much weaker right now than most people realize. Just take a look at Jim the Realtor’s article today on active vs. pending ratios (http://www.bubbleinfo.com).

With that said, I do agree with you sdrealtor, that CV residents are in a better position to “dig in their heels” than nearly all other areas in San Diego County (except La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF, etc.). And that is exactly what they are doing. Both sdrealtor and SD Realtor have predicted this would happen. Most of the inventory on the CV market today has problems (i.e. bad lot, priced unrealistically, run-down, etc.). But, life rolls on: divorce happens, Kids graduate off to college, people want to move to retirement areas, etc. Most people I know don’t want to retire in CV, on the contrary, they are here for their kids. As this massive housing recession drags on, there will be those in nicer CV properties that just can’t wait for the recovery (people on this board seem to agree that won’t happen until 2010-2012) and they will be forced to keep “marking to market” to get their house sold, dragging down comps further. One thing is for sure, CV will be a fascinating case study when this whole thing is over, and it’s dynamic as part of the SD real estate market is why undue attention seems to be focused there on this blog.

[New_Renter]

Rustico, Ziprealty neighborhood stats are way different than zipskinny. Ziprealty shows the average income in CV at $155,582.

But in response to sdrealtor, my guess is that only about 20%-30% of CV residents fall into the specific profile you mention, this being a higher percentage than other areas like Scripps Ranch, University City, Encinitas, etc. I’ve worked in CV for 10 years and lived here for nearly a year now. My wife and I know personally (or know through others) a pretty wide sampling swath of SFR homeowners here, and I agree with poster zk that there are a large portion (perhaps 50%) that fit the lower economic profile he mentions. There is a further portion, both in detached and attached housing that have an economic profile even below that. Many have over-stretched themselves to live here and definitely don’t have a big “warchest.” Ziprealty says the average Net Worth in CV is $194,133, which hardly can be called a war chest.

On the other hand, Ziprealty shows the average income in Del Mar (92014) to be $206,423 and in Rancho Santa Fe it’s $400,898. Your going to find far more true c-level executives in those two areas (plus La Jolla and Coronado) than CV. CV likely has more junior level execs and the C-level types are more likely to be from smaller companies, successful RE investors, attorneys, doctors, successful small business owners, etc.

My feeling is that CV is much weaker right now than most people realize. Just take a look at Jim the Realtor’s article today on active vs. pending ratios (http://www.bubbleinfo.com).

With that said, I do agree with you sdrealtor, that CV residents are in a better position to “dig in their heels” than nearly all other areas in San Diego County (except La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF, etc.). And that is exactly what they are doing. Both sdrealtor and SD Realtor have predicted this would happen. Most of the inventory on the CV market today has problems (i.e. bad lot, priced unrealistically, run-down, etc.). But, life rolls on: divorce happens, Kids graduate off to college, people want to move to retirement areas, etc. Most people I know don’t want to retire in CV, on the contrary, they are here for their kids. As this massive housing recession drags on, there will be those in nicer CV properties that just can’t wait for the recovery (people on this board seem to agree that won’t happen until 2010-2012) and they will be forced to keep “marking to market” to get their house sold, dragging down comps further. One thing is for sure, CV will be a fascinating case study when this whole thing is over, and it’s dynamic as part of the SD real estate market is why undue attention seems to be focused there on this blog.

[New_Renter]

Rustico, Ziprealty neighborhood stats are way different than zipskinny. Ziprealty shows the average income in CV at $155,582.

But in response to sdrealtor, my guess is that only about 20%-30% of CV residents fall into the specific profile you mention, this being a higher percentage than other areas like Scripps Ranch, University City, Encinitas, etc. I’ve worked in CV for 10 years and lived here for nearly a year now. My wife and I know personally (or know through others) a pretty wide sampling swath of SFR homeowners here, and I agree with poster zk that there are a large portion (perhaps 50%) that fit the lower economic profile he mentions. There is a further portion, both in detached and attached housing that have an economic profile even below that. Many have over-stretched themselves to live here and definitely don’t have a big “warchest.” Ziprealty says the average Net Worth in CV is $194,133, which hardly can be called a war chest.

On the other hand, Ziprealty shows the average income in Del Mar (92014) to be $206,423 and in Rancho Santa Fe it’s $400,898. Your going to find far more true c-level executives in those two areas (plus La Jolla and Coronado) than CV. CV likely has more junior level execs and the C-level types are more likely to be from smaller companies, successful RE investors, attorneys, doctors, successful small business owners, etc.

My feeling is that CV is much weaker right now than most people realize. Just take a look at Jim the Realtor’s article today on active vs. pending ratios (http://www.bubbleinfo.com).

With that said, I do agree with you sdrealtor, that CV residents are in a better position to “dig in their heels” than nearly all other areas in San Diego County (except La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF, etc.). And that is exactly what they are doing. Both sdrealtor and SD Realtor have predicted this would happen. Most of the inventory on the CV market today has problems (i.e. bad lot, priced unrealistically, run-down, etc.). But, life rolls on: divorce happens, Kids graduate off to college, people want to move to retirement areas, etc. Most people I know don’t want to retire in CV, on the contrary, they are here for their kids. As this massive housing recession drags on, there will be those in nicer CV properties that just can’t wait for the recovery (people on this board seem to agree that won’t happen until 2010-2012) and they will be forced to keep “marking to market” to get their house sold, dragging down comps further. One thing is for sure, CV will be a fascinating case study when this whole thing is over, and it’s dynamic as part of the SD real estate market is why undue attention seems to be focused there on this blog.

[New_Renter]

Rustico, Ziprealty neighborhood stats are way different than zipskinny. Ziprealty shows the average income in CV at $155,582.

But in response to sdrealtor, my guess is that only about 20%-30% of CV residents fall into the specific profile you mention, this being a higher percentage than other areas like Scripps Ranch, University City, Encinitas, etc. I’ve worked in CV for 10 years and lived here for nearly a year now. My wife and I know personally (or know through others) a pretty wide sampling swath of SFR homeowners here, and I agree with poster zk that there are a large portion (perhaps 50%) that fit the lower economic profile he mentions. There is a further portion, both in detached and attached housing that have an economic profile even below that. Many have over-stretched themselves to live here and definitely don’t have a big “warchest.” Ziprealty says the average Net Worth in CV is $194,133, which hardly can be called a war chest.

On the other hand, Ziprealty shows the average income in Del Mar (92014) to be $206,423 and in Rancho Santa Fe it’s $400,898. Your going to find far more true c-level executives in those two areas (plus La Jolla and Coronado) than CV. CV likely has more junior level execs and the C-level types are more likely to be from smaller companies, successful RE investors, attorneys, doctors, successful small business owners, etc.

My feeling is that CV is much weaker right now than most people realize. Just take a look at Jim the Realtor’s article today on active vs. pending ratios (http://www.bubbleinfo.com).

With that said, I do agree with you sdrealtor, that CV residents are in a better position to “dig in their heels” than nearly all other areas in San Diego County (except La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF, etc.). And that is exactly what they are doing. Both sdrealtor and SD Realtor have predicted this would happen. Most of the inventory on the CV market today has problems (i.e. bad lot, priced unrealistically, run-down, etc.). But, life rolls on: divorce happens, Kids graduate off to college, people want to move to retirement areas, etc. Most people I know don’t want to retire in CV, on the contrary, they are here for their kids. As this massive housing recession drags on, there will be those in nicer CV properties that just can’t wait for the recovery (people on this board seem to agree that won’t happen until 2010-2012) and they will be forced to keep “marking to market” to get their house sold, dragging down comps further. One thing is for sure, CV will be a fascinating case study when this whole thing is over, and it’s dynamic as part of the SD real estate market is why undue attention seems to be focused there on this blog.

[sdcellar]

Aren’t most of the resets at risk based on initial teaser rates rather than market rates at time of origination?

Sure, rates are down a bit, but if your variable was originally based on market, the pending reset probably wasn’t going to break you anyway.

This has been posited a few times now, so I was just curious.

[Author]

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