Carmel Valley Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather:

9/5 to 9/12

new listings – 21
back on market – 1

Total growth in inventory – 22

pendings – 6

expired – 3
withdrawn – 0
cancelled – 5

Total decrease in inventory – 14

Net change in inventory – plus 8

[an]

new on market seems much higher w/ this update than the past. It seems to be around mid-teens, now, it’s low 20s. Could it be seller on the fence, hoping things will pick up finally gave up and jump in?

[sdrealtor]

AN
Not sure but it does look like alot of new listings given the time of year.

[zk]

sdrealtor,

Nice work.

I’d be interested in knowing what the months supply is for CV. Maybe you could even add it to your regular updates, if it’s not too much trouble. Or do you think that, for a small submarket, the months supply might be irrelevant or misleading?

Thanks.

[sdrealtor]

Time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather:

9/13 to 9/19

new listings – 15
back on market – 2

Total growth in inventory – 17

pendings – 9

expired – 5
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 1

Total decrease in inventory – 18

Net change in inventory – minus 1

Months Inventory is a bit tricky because of seasonality. Acknowledging the flaws he’s a first stab at. I’ll divide current inventory by the average monthly closed sales for the past 12 months. Its 4.17 by this measure. If you divide by last months sales it’s 4.28.

[sdrealtor]

Time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather:

9/20 to 9/26

new listings – 9
back on market – 2

Total growth in inventory – 11

pendings – 4

expired – 4
withdrawn – 4
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 14

Net change in inventory – minus 3

[sdrealtor]

Catch up time. Here’s another week.

9/27 to 10/3

new listings – 18
back on market – 3

Total growth in inventory – 21

pendings – 8

expired – 9
withdrawn – 6
cancelled – 4

Total decrease in inventory – 27

Net change in inventory – minus 6

The higher number of listings and expireds is due the end of the month falling during the week. Inventory continues to stay relatively flat in the face of plummeting sales volume.

I have the numbers for the short sale monitor and will try to get them up when I get home. I’m starting to see the beginnings of decent sized declines in my submarket. I think what has surprised me the most is the decline in volume. Prices have been so resistant to an orderly decline and this has caused the volume. I really shouldnt have been surprised but the truth is, I’ve been far more focussed on my other business interests outside of RE. Another surprise is the agents I’m hearing who are leaving the business or looking for other careers. Several of these are top producers whose faces adorn full page ads in the UT and your local supermarket shopping carts. My guess is their bottom lines were far different than their top line revenues which were very substantial.

[NotCranky]

sdr the bellwether is in the pendings.Pretty broadly too.Now we need a “nerd” to seperate the seasonal adjustment component from the liquidity fallout factor. My view is that pendings have crashed well beyond the seasonal influence.I know it has been in the news , something like as many as 30% of escrows failed in the last month depending on the area.Clearly the rate of properties going to escrow has declined as well. You know I watch San Carlos, detached closely and the active pending was hovering around 60/30. All of the sudden it is in the area of 60/10. I also watch 92116 closely and although it wasn’t as strong as some neighbohoods it is really looking bad now. What do you think? I am thinking Chunks. The pendings in Jamul BTW, which have been really been low, actually went up 4 or 5. 100/10! This place is on fire!

[sdrealtor]

Definitely agree on the pendings falling below the seasonal effect. Regarding prices: Maybe small chunks but not big ones. All along I’ve expected about 5 to 10% depreciation with most of the fall coming in Fall. I still feel the same way. People on both sides of the equation are too impatient and want to see instant gratification. The ship is just too darn big to move that fast.

Additionally, at 5 to 10% off Spring 2007 prices I believe that Spring 2008 sales would be pretty good in my neck of the woods.

[NotCranky]

“The ship is just too darn big to move that fast.”
Yeah that is because you are thinking ocean liner or aircraft carrier or something like that.I am thinking space ship. Didn’t it seem like it had rockets on it in 2003-2005? It has just entered the atmosphere parachutes aren’t working. Set the implodometer.

[sdrealtor]

patience grasshopah! It’s coming……

[NotCranky]

Got me laughing pretty good!

[Anonymous]

Most of the housing in CV is pretty new (post 2000). Given the amortization process, there has to be very little equity in these homes, other than that from rising prices, and even much of that has been sucked out through HELOC loans, etc.

As prices drop, owners will begin to owe more to the banks than their homes are worth. What happens then?

Correct me if I am wrong, but the “rosy” picture is that owners will hang onto their homes, but will basically stop using them as an ATM. Consumption will decline and this will lead to recession, with localized unemployment, etc. Some people in nicer areas will lose their homes due to job loss, etc. A less cheery version is something like what is now happening with ARM resets, as owners find that they can neither afford to sell their homes, or wait out the (very long) cycle in housing prices to recovery. Either way, those of us who have been waiting on the sidelines win.

[sdrealtor]

Just went back and checked my historical data. I started following CV on 8/14/06, so I dont have data going back as far as I do in So Carlsbad and Encinitas.

Here are the CV numbers:

8/14/06 pendings were 45
10/3/06 pendings were 39

A drop of 13.33%

Here are this years numbers for CV:

8/13/07 pendings were 48
10/1/07 pendings were 36

A drop of 25%

While the drop off is nearly double percentagewise the numbers still look pretty good Y-O-Y.

[NotCranky]

8/14/06 pendings were 45
10/3/06 pendings were 39

Do you have the active listings as of these dates handy? I wonder how those compare with todays numbers?
Thanks

[Author]

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