Carmel Valley Monitor

[justbought]

house may not be worth it, but 270 hoa including unlimited golf is pretty good for any golfer! I was looking there late last year and spoke to few golfers, who said that hardly anyone plays and they love not having to wait, etc. But of course, its no torrey pines, and I don’t think one can even use the big dog on any of the holes.

[justbought]

house may not be worth it, but 270 hoa including unlimited golf is pretty good for any golfer! I was looking there late last year and spoke to few golfers, who said that hardly anyone plays and they love not having to wait, etc. But of course, its no torrey pines, and I don’t think one can even use the big dog on any of the holes.

[justbought]

house may not be worth it, but 270 hoa including unlimited golf is pretty good for any golfer! I was looking there late last year and spoke to few golfers, who said that hardly anyone plays and they love not having to wait, etc. But of course, its no torrey pines, and I don’t think one can even use the big dog on any of the holes.

[Coronita]

That is something we have discovered since we started looking through CV a lot. It's bad. For houses that are less than 20 years old, they are in horrific condition. Noisy. Plastic pipes. Deteriorating walls. The list goes on.

 

I'm not sure if I agree with the statement about plastic pipes. First, plastic pipes have been used as early as the late 80ies in homes, depending on the applications. Provided the correct applications of PVC are used by the home builder, I would say PVC would probably hold up better than metal. I can't count how many folks I know who had to get metal pipes re-piped in due to pipe-hole leaks brought on from corrosion in metal pipes. The only issues I see is builders running these pipes in walls and a homeowner accidently hammers a nail or run a screw through a PVC pipe behind a wall, where he though it was a wood beam (yes, I've done that too. Not fun.)

If you look a several of the latest plumbing fixtures, most more plastic than metal these days. Not only cheaper to make, but supposedly more corrosion resistant.

[Coronita]

That is something we have discovered since we started looking through CV a lot. It's bad. For houses that are less than 20 years old, they are in horrific condition. Noisy. Plastic pipes. Deteriorating walls. The list goes on.

 

I'm not sure if I agree with the statement about plastic pipes. First, plastic pipes have been used as early as the late 80ies in homes, depending on the applications. Provided the correct applications of PVC are used by the home builder, I would say PVC would probably hold up better than metal. I can't count how many folks I know who had to get metal pipes re-piped in due to pipe-hole leaks brought on from corrosion in metal pipes. The only issues I see is builders running these pipes in walls and a homeowner accidently hammers a nail or run a screw through a PVC pipe behind a wall, where he though it was a wood beam (yes, I've done that too. Not fun.)

If you look a several of the latest plumbing fixtures, most more plastic than metal these days. Not only cheaper to make, but supposedly more corrosion resistant.

[Coronita]

That is something we have discovered since we started looking through CV a lot. It's bad. For houses that are less than 20 years old, they are in horrific condition. Noisy. Plastic pipes. Deteriorating walls. The list goes on.

 

I'm not sure if I agree with the statement about plastic pipes. First, plastic pipes have been used as early as the late 80ies in homes, depending on the applications. Provided the correct applications of PVC are used by the home builder, I would say PVC would probably hold up better than metal. I can't count how many folks I know who had to get metal pipes re-piped in due to pipe-hole leaks brought on from corrosion in metal pipes. The only issues I see is builders running these pipes in walls and a homeowner accidently hammers a nail or run a screw through a PVC pipe behind a wall, where he though it was a wood beam (yes, I've done that too. Not fun.)

If you look a several of the latest plumbing fixtures, most more plastic than metal these days. Not only cheaper to make, but supposedly more corrosion resistant.

[Coronita]

That hoa fee isn't bad. But that 800k house should come back to 2002 levels…$560,000 in the next year.

 

Palacio is one of the worst communities imho. I've been in and out of so many of the units, and I guess where the units are situated, a lot of them are suffering from mold/mildew inside and out. Even so, not sure we'd see $560k by next year. Maybe by 2010. 

[Coronita]

That hoa fee isn't bad. But that 800k house should come back to 2002 levels…$560,000 in the next year.

 

Palacio is one of the worst communities imho. I've been in and out of so many of the units, and I guess where the units are situated, a lot of them are suffering from mold/mildew inside and out. Even so, not sure we'd see $560k by next year. Maybe by 2010. 

[Coronita]

That hoa fee isn't bad. But that 800k house should come back to 2002 levels…$560,000 in the next year.

 

Palacio is one of the worst communities imho. I've been in and out of so many of the units, and I guess where the units are situated, a lot of them are suffering from mold/mildew inside and out. Even so, not sure we'd see $560k by next year. Maybe by 2010. 

[Coronita]

There has been lots of movement of people in and out of these areas. This is a neighborhood started in 1992, that's only 15 years ago. The typical owner is a small business owner, executive, doctor, lawyer, investments, banking, etc. If the economy holds up, the prices should stay stable and downward. If the economy does NOT hold up, I still maintain that a lot of these folks are living at a very high level even with very high incomes. They are not banking their income. This isn't Rancho Santa Fe, it's not Del Mar at the beach. They have held up because the economy has held up. We are in the first level of crisis in the financial markets. Next year should be awful. The business that these people employ should start layoffs and downsizing to correspond with the economy. This should devastate CV.

Bottom line – CV will fall as fast or faster because it has grown faster and higher than it's more stable long term areas. If the economy chugs along – it won't fall quickly. If there is a recession – it is a gonner!

I'm trying to understand how when upper-middle to low-wealthy (not extremely weathly) folks will fall quicker or be in a "gonner" situation faster or more so than areas more consistently average joe? I mean, if we talk about a recession such that the upper middle class and even the low wealthy get hit, don't we think other ,more average joe's will get hit even harder.? I'm trying to understand a point in history in which the an upper middle class exclusively suffers more than average joe. How a doctor, that arguably is more recession proof than other professions would bear a bigger brunt, than some hourly worker working a retail shop that says lives in temecula or otay mesa in a recession.

 

It would seem logical that one's prospects are all relative. In a recession, everyone goes down (except the extremely wealthy). But isn't there a pecking order? If you're comparing to your peers, it's still relative, isn't it?

 

As far as CV is overpriced…Well, yes I would say so..But so is everywhere else in San Diego. Even today, things look pretty ridiculous in Otay Mesa, Oceanside, San Marcos, Temecula. However, I would be curious if anyone had data about the relative disparity between the cost of a home in those areas relative to the income of the home owner (or I should say borrower). For example, $800k in Carmel V might not be as ridiculous for a 2 income family both work biotech/tech, as say $600k in Chula Vista by a single income retail worker. Anyone have the relative disparity betwen home price in an area and income of the home borrower?

[Coronita]

There has been lots of movement of people in and out of these areas. This is a neighborhood started in 1992, that's only 15 years ago. The typical owner is a small business owner, executive, doctor, lawyer, investments, banking, etc. If the economy holds up, the prices should stay stable and downward. If the economy does NOT hold up, I still maintain that a lot of these folks are living at a very high level even with very high incomes. They are not banking their income. This isn't Rancho Santa Fe, it's not Del Mar at the beach. They have held up because the economy has held up. We are in the first level of crisis in the financial markets. Next year should be awful. The business that these people employ should start layoffs and downsizing to correspond with the economy. This should devastate CV.

Bottom line – CV will fall as fast or faster because it has grown faster and higher than it's more stable long term areas. If the economy chugs along – it won't fall quickly. If there is a recession – it is a gonner!

I'm trying to understand how when upper-middle to low-wealthy (not extremely weathly) folks will fall quicker or be in a "gonner" situation faster or more so than areas more consistently average joe? I mean, if we talk about a recession such that the upper middle class and even the low wealthy get hit, don't we think other ,more average joe's will get hit even harder.? I'm trying to understand a point in history in which the an upper middle class exclusively suffers more than average joe. How a doctor, that arguably is more recession proof than other professions would bear a bigger brunt, than some hourly worker working a retail shop that says lives in temecula or otay mesa in a recession.

 

It would seem logical that one's prospects are all relative. In a recession, everyone goes down (except the extremely wealthy). But isn't there a pecking order? If you're comparing to your peers, it's still relative, isn't it?

 

As far as CV is overpriced…Well, yes I would say so..But so is everywhere else in San Diego. Even today, things look pretty ridiculous in Otay Mesa, Oceanside, San Marcos, Temecula. However, I would be curious if anyone had data about the relative disparity between the cost of a home in those areas relative to the income of the home owner (or I should say borrower). For example, $800k in Carmel V might not be as ridiculous for a 2 income family both work biotech/tech, as say $600k in Chula Vista by a single income retail worker. Anyone have the relative disparity betwen home price in an area and income of the home borrower?

[Coronita]

There has been lots of movement of people in and out of these areas. This is a neighborhood started in 1992, that's only 15 years ago. The typical owner is a small business owner, executive, doctor, lawyer, investments, banking, etc. If the economy holds up, the prices should stay stable and downward. If the economy does NOT hold up, I still maintain that a lot of these folks are living at a very high level even with very high incomes. They are not banking their income. This isn't Rancho Santa Fe, it's not Del Mar at the beach. They have held up because the economy has held up. We are in the first level of crisis in the financial markets. Next year should be awful. The business that these people employ should start layoffs and downsizing to correspond with the economy. This should devastate CV.

Bottom line – CV will fall as fast or faster because it has grown faster and higher than it's more stable long term areas. If the economy chugs along – it won't fall quickly. If there is a recession – it is a gonner!

I'm trying to understand how when upper-middle to low-wealthy (not extremely weathly) folks will fall quicker or be in a "gonner" situation faster or more so than areas more consistently average joe? I mean, if we talk about a recession such that the upper middle class and even the low wealthy get hit, don't we think other ,more average joe's will get hit even harder.? I'm trying to understand a point in history in which the an upper middle class exclusively suffers more than average joe. How a doctor, that arguably is more recession proof than other professions would bear a bigger brunt, than some hourly worker working a retail shop that says lives in temecula or otay mesa in a recession.

 

It would seem logical that one's prospects are all relative. In a recession, everyone goes down (except the extremely wealthy). But isn't there a pecking order? If you're comparing to your peers, it's still relative, isn't it?

 

As far as CV is overpriced…Well, yes I would say so..But so is everywhere else in San Diego. Even today, things look pretty ridiculous in Otay Mesa, Oceanside, San Marcos, Temecula. However, I would be curious if anyone had data about the relative disparity between the cost of a home in those areas relative to the income of the home owner (or I should say borrower). For example, $800k in Carmel V might not be as ridiculous for a 2 income family both work biotech/tech, as say $600k in Chula Vista by a single income retail worker. Anyone have the relative disparity betwen home price in an area and income of the home borrower?

[Arraya]

Anyone have the relative disparity between home price in an area and income of the home borrower?

I’ve often thought that data would be the most beneficial in determining the relative strength of an area.

I think that data is virtually impossible to gather with the slightest bit of accuracy due to the huge percentage of “stated” loans done over the last 3 years.

That actually might be telling in itself, percentage of stated loans done per zip code. That could probably give you an idea. Wonder if the lenders would volunteer to give that up?

[Arraya]

Anyone have the relative disparity between home price in an area and income of the home borrower?

I’ve often thought that data would be the most beneficial in determining the relative strength of an area.

I think that data is virtually impossible to gather with the slightest bit of accuracy due to the huge percentage of “stated” loans done over the last 3 years.

That actually might be telling in itself, percentage of stated loans done per zip code. That could probably give you an idea. Wonder if the lenders would volunteer to give that up?

[Arraya]

Anyone have the relative disparity between home price in an area and income of the home borrower?

I’ve often thought that data would be the most beneficial in determining the relative strength of an area.

I think that data is virtually impossible to gather with the slightest bit of accuracy due to the huge percentage of “stated” loans done over the last 3 years.

That actually might be telling in itself, percentage of stated loans done per zip code. That could probably give you an idea. Wonder if the lenders would volunteer to give that up?

[Author]

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