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Aecetia.
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August 24, 2007 at 9:20 AM #80354August 24, 2007 at 9:20 AM #80485
Bugs
ParticipantI don’t think of this area as being an early indicator of anything. It is centrally located relative to good employment and will be among the last areas affected by a downward trend. So. Carlsbad will suffer more than CV. CV is not on the margins at all. About the only thing it can indicate is the reach of the current trend – when things go bad in CV it will be proof that there is no refuge from a regional decline.
The people who have the means to do so will dig in and they will ride it out, as they should. For the most part the only people who are selling now are doing so because they have no other choice.
Pricing will still be relational. The $900k house in CV that’s exactly like the $850k house in So. Carlsbad isn’t going to stay at $900k at the same time the Carlsbad house drops to $700k. Same goes for the Carlsbad house in relation to the San Elijo house that settles at $500k. People pay extra to get extra, and in a declining market that baseline is established at the bottom, not the top.
August 24, 2007 at 9:20 AM #80507ParticipantI don’t think of this area as being an early indicator of anything. It is centrally located relative to good employment and will be among the last areas affected by a downward trend. So. Carlsbad will suffer more than CV. CV is not on the margins at all. About the only thing it can indicate is the reach of the current trend – when things go bad in CV it will be proof that there is no refuge from a regional decline.
The people who have the means to do so will dig in and they will ride it out, as they should. For the most part the only people who are selling now are doing so because they have no other choice.
Pricing will still be relational. The $900k house in CV that’s exactly like the $850k house in So. Carlsbad isn’t going to stay at $900k at the same time the Carlsbad house drops to $700k. Same goes for the Carlsbad house in relation to the San Elijo house that settles at $500k. People pay extra to get extra, and in a declining market that baseline is established at the bottom, not the top.
August 24, 2007 at 9:35 AM #80367SanDiegoDave
ParticipantI speak only in terms of CV by itself. I follow the area very closely. CV is no 4Closure Ranch. But it’s still overpriced. My opinion (no claim to be a psychic or anything) is that CV is going to see its biggest declines in the next 6-12 months. More sharp percentage drops in price per sq ft.
You’re right that those who are selling are the ones who really need to. But what’s left there right now is going to be stuck that way unless they lower their prices. We all know the value of some parts of CV with respect to its location (proximity to freeways, beach, schools etc.) But any of those houses just sitting there unsold (especially in the “heart” area – the Carmel Creek, Carmel Country, Del Mar Heights Rd) means they are overpriced and/or something is just “wrong” with the house (which means they should lower the price anyway until the “wrong” is worth it to prospective buyers).
With the coming aftermath of ARM resets CV will no longer appear to be as “immune” to the regional decline.
August 24, 2007 at 9:35 AM #80496ParticipantI speak only in terms of CV by itself. I follow the area very closely. CV is no 4Closure Ranch. But it’s still overpriced. My opinion (no claim to be a psychic or anything) is that CV is going to see its biggest declines in the next 6-12 months. More sharp percentage drops in price per sq ft.
You’re right that those who are selling are the ones who really need to. But what’s left there right now is going to be stuck that way unless they lower their prices. We all know the value of some parts of CV with respect to its location (proximity to freeways, beach, schools etc.) But any of those houses just sitting there unsold (especially in the “heart” area – the Carmel Creek, Carmel Country, Del Mar Heights Rd) means they are overpriced and/or something is just “wrong” with the house (which means they should lower the price anyway until the “wrong” is worth it to prospective buyers).
With the coming aftermath of ARM resets CV will no longer appear to be as “immune” to the regional decline.
August 24, 2007 at 9:35 AM #80519ParticipantI speak only in terms of CV by itself. I follow the area very closely. CV is no 4Closure Ranch. But it’s still overpriced. My opinion (no claim to be a psychic or anything) is that CV is going to see its biggest declines in the next 6-12 months. More sharp percentage drops in price per sq ft.
You’re right that those who are selling are the ones who really need to. But what’s left there right now is going to be stuck that way unless they lower their prices. We all know the value of some parts of CV with respect to its location (proximity to freeways, beach, schools etc.) But any of those houses just sitting there unsold (especially in the “heart” area – the Carmel Creek, Carmel Country, Del Mar Heights Rd) means they are overpriced and/or something is just “wrong” with the house (which means they should lower the price anyway until the “wrong” is worth it to prospective buyers).
With the coming aftermath of ARM resets CV will no longer appear to be as “immune” to the regional decline.
August 24, 2007 at 11:01 AM #80442cyphire
ParticipantHaving lived in CV for 5 years (up to 3 years ago) there is something to be said for both opinions (in my opinion!). Carmel Valley is very overpriced – this is a fundamental flaw in the logic that it will hold it’s pricing relative to other areas. I’m not sure that the amount it is overpriced is realistic as other properties go down. CV was a roller coaster over the last 10+ years going straight up. My neighbor still has his house on the market for 1.8M. I think it should be 1.3M, but only if housing prices stay stable. Reality? 800K (eventually)
There has been lots of movement of people in and out of these areas. This is a neighborhood started in 1992, that’s only 15 years ago. The typical owner is a small business owner, executive, doctor, lawyer, investments, banking, etc. If the economy holds up, the prices should stay stable and downward. If the economy does NOT hold up, I still maintain that a lot of these folks are living at a very high level even with very high incomes. They are not banking their income. This isn’t Rancho Santa Fe, it’s not Del Mar at the beach. They have held up because the economy has held up. We are in the first level of crisis in the financial markets. Next year should be awful. The business that these people employ should start layoffs and downsizing to correspond with the economy. This should devastate CV.
Another factor… These houses suck. They are stucco and wire crappy houses 6 feet from their neighbors. Any oversized lots are oversized because half the lot is a hill-side. There is a huge amount of new construction which has yet to be leveraged into the market. It’s an illiquid market, and will not show destabilization until time itself makes the correction.
Bottom line – CV will fall as fast or faster because it has grown faster and higher than it’s more stable long term areas. If the economy chugs along – it won’t fall quickly. If there is a recession – it is a gonner!
August 24, 2007 at 11:01 AM #80572ParticipantHaving lived in CV for 5 years (up to 3 years ago) there is something to be said for both opinions (in my opinion!). Carmel Valley is very overpriced – this is a fundamental flaw in the logic that it will hold it’s pricing relative to other areas. I’m not sure that the amount it is overpriced is realistic as other properties go down. CV was a roller coaster over the last 10+ years going straight up. My neighbor still has his house on the market for 1.8M. I think it should be 1.3M, but only if housing prices stay stable. Reality? 800K (eventually)
There has been lots of movement of people in and out of these areas. This is a neighborhood started in 1992, that’s only 15 years ago. The typical owner is a small business owner, executive, doctor, lawyer, investments, banking, etc. If the economy holds up, the prices should stay stable and downward. If the economy does NOT hold up, I still maintain that a lot of these folks are living at a very high level even with very high incomes. They are not banking their income. This isn’t Rancho Santa Fe, it’s not Del Mar at the beach. They have held up because the economy has held up. We are in the first level of crisis in the financial markets. Next year should be awful. The business that these people employ should start layoffs and downsizing to correspond with the economy. This should devastate CV.
Another factor… These houses suck. They are stucco and wire crappy houses 6 feet from their neighbors. Any oversized lots are oversized because half the lot is a hill-side. There is a huge amount of new construction which has yet to be leveraged into the market. It’s an illiquid market, and will not show destabilization until time itself makes the correction.
Bottom line – CV will fall as fast or faster because it has grown faster and higher than it’s more stable long term areas. If the economy chugs along – it won’t fall quickly. If there is a recession – it is a gonner!
August 24, 2007 at 11:01 AM #80595ParticipantHaving lived in CV for 5 years (up to 3 years ago) there is something to be said for both opinions (in my opinion!). Carmel Valley is very overpriced – this is a fundamental flaw in the logic that it will hold it’s pricing relative to other areas. I’m not sure that the amount it is overpriced is realistic as other properties go down. CV was a roller coaster over the last 10+ years going straight up. My neighbor still has his house on the market for 1.8M. I think it should be 1.3M, but only if housing prices stay stable. Reality? 800K (eventually)
There has been lots of movement of people in and out of these areas. This is a neighborhood started in 1992, that’s only 15 years ago. The typical owner is a small business owner, executive, doctor, lawyer, investments, banking, etc. If the economy holds up, the prices should stay stable and downward. If the economy does NOT hold up, I still maintain that a lot of these folks are living at a very high level even with very high incomes. They are not banking their income. This isn’t Rancho Santa Fe, it’s not Del Mar at the beach. They have held up because the economy has held up. We are in the first level of crisis in the financial markets. Next year should be awful. The business that these people employ should start layoffs and downsizing to correspond with the economy. This should devastate CV.
Another factor… These houses suck. They are stucco and wire crappy houses 6 feet from their neighbors. Any oversized lots are oversized because half the lot is a hill-side. There is a huge amount of new construction which has yet to be leveraged into the market. It’s an illiquid market, and will not show destabilization until time itself makes the correction.
Bottom line – CV will fall as fast or faster because it has grown faster and higher than it’s more stable long term areas. If the economy chugs along – it won’t fall quickly. If there is a recession – it is a gonner!
August 24, 2007 at 11:28 AM #80478Participantcyphire wrote: Another factor… These houses suck. They are stucco and wire crappy houses 6 feet from their neighbors.
That is something we have discovered since we started looking through CV a lot. It’s bad. For houses that are less than 20 years old, they are in horrific condition. Noisy. Plastic pipes. Deteriorating walls. The list goes on.
It’s sad. I love the over location. But assuming one’s house will be standing in another 20 years is a total crap shoot.
August 24, 2007 at 11:28 AM #80608Participantcyphire wrote: Another factor… These houses suck. They are stucco and wire crappy houses 6 feet from their neighbors.
That is something we have discovered since we started looking through CV a lot. It’s bad. For houses that are less than 20 years old, they are in horrific condition. Noisy. Plastic pipes. Deteriorating walls. The list goes on.
It’s sad. I love the over location. But assuming one’s house will be standing in another 20 years is a total crap shoot.
August 24, 2007 at 11:28 AM #80630Participantcyphire wrote: Another factor… These houses suck. They are stucco and wire crappy houses 6 feet from their neighbors.
That is something we have discovered since we started looking through CV a lot. It’s bad. For houses that are less than 20 years old, they are in horrific condition. Noisy. Plastic pipes. Deteriorating walls. The list goes on.
It’s sad. I love the over location. But assuming one’s house will be standing in another 20 years is a total crap shoot.
August 24, 2007 at 11:37 AM #80484JES
ParticipantIt is all about the land my friend! they just aren’t building any more of it!
August 24, 2007 at 11:37 AM #80614ParticipantIt is all about the land my friend! they just aren’t building any more of it!
August 24, 2007 at 11:37 AM #80637ParticipantIt is all about the land my friend! they just aren’t building any more of it!
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