Carmel Valley Monitor

[JJGittes]

sdr,

Yeah, I’m wrestling with it too. To some degree, it’s almost a neighborhood by neighborhood thing, I think. I’ve been watching Bressi, actually I drove through it yesterday, and I saw a lot of for sale signs. I did some research and not much is moving in there at this moment. Perhaps the oppressive MR’s and $200 ass. fee is making buyers think twice. I think prices could come down 10% in Bressi with the stroke of a couple of pens, literally. La Costa Oaks, the Bay Collection, and La Costa Greens could be the same.

However, in neighborhoods with relatively low/no MR’s and reasonable association fees, like those mostly built in the 90’s to 2001 or so, and particularly those in the best school districts, your scenario of ‘digging in’ I think is very likely. The $700-900 range (middle class!?!?) in those better areas could actually do OK for some time to come, imo.

Just my Sunday evening musings….

[JJGittes]

sdr,

Yeah, I’m wrestling with it too. To some degree, it’s almost a neighborhood by neighborhood thing, I think. I’ve been watching Bressi, actually I drove through it yesterday, and I saw a lot of for sale signs. I did some research and not much is moving in there at this moment. Perhaps the oppressive MR’s and $200 ass. fee is making buyers think twice. I think prices could come down 10% in Bressi with the stroke of a couple of pens, literally. La Costa Oaks, the Bay Collection, and La Costa Greens could be the same.

However, in neighborhoods with relatively low/no MR’s and reasonable association fees, like those mostly built in the 90’s to 2001 or so, and particularly those in the best school districts, your scenario of ‘digging in’ I think is very likely. The $700-900 range (middle class!?!?) in those better areas could actually do OK for some time to come, imo.

Just my Sunday evening musings….

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

With my suspicious mind, I get the sense that the Realtor Machine has conspired to fight their losing positions by engaging in disinformation and the like. Take the MLS, for instance. They won’t show you the correct days-on-market stats anymore. They deliberately undercount the number of houses in the active for-sale list by dropping those without sq-ft measurements off the list. They have “pocket” listings maybe if they think that the sellers are not internet savvy and don’t know how to check the MLS list and confirm that theirs is actually MLS-counted.

Of course, the Realtor Machine, if they aren’t doing it already, could manipulate the number of active listing in the MLS by understating it in a huge magnitude. They publish the total number of actives – such a big deal – everybody looks at it and use it as basis of discussion and prior-year comparisons. That way, the mainstream media and the gullible “us” would all assume that “inventory is dropping” So, I take what the MLS count that the realtors tell us with a huge slab (not a grain) of salt.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

With my suspicious mind, I get the sense that the Realtor Machine has conspired to fight their losing positions by engaging in disinformation and the like. Take the MLS, for instance. They won’t show you the correct days-on-market stats anymore. They deliberately undercount the number of houses in the active for-sale list by dropping those without sq-ft measurements off the list. They have “pocket” listings maybe if they think that the sellers are not internet savvy and don’t know how to check the MLS list and confirm that theirs is actually MLS-counted.

Of course, the Realtor Machine, if they aren’t doing it already, could manipulate the number of active listing in the MLS by understating it in a huge magnitude. They publish the total number of actives – such a big deal – everybody looks at it and use it as basis of discussion and prior-year comparisons. That way, the mainstream media and the gullible “us” would all assume that “inventory is dropping” So, I take what the MLS count that the realtors tell us with a huge slab (not a grain) of salt.

[SD Realtor]

I am not afraid of NAR however I would like to address some of the statements made…

“Take the MLS, for instance. They won’t show you the correct days-on-market stats anymore.”

Ummm… which MLS are you talking about Nancy. Sandicor has not changed a thing. I think you may be referring to the Socal MLS which is not Sandicor down here in San Diego. You can always find out how long a home has been on the market by calling the agent and asking.

Also how many days has any FSBO been on the market?

“They deliberately undercount the number of houses in the active for-sale list by dropping those without sq-ft measurements off the list.”

Ummm… once more, which MLS are you talking about Nancy? The Sandicor puts all homes on the MLS regardless of whether square footage is entered or not. An active listing is an active listing is an active listing. It is not hidden in any way. One thing that does happen though… if you do a search on square footage maybe search for a home bigger then x square feet, then the homes that do not have square footage will not be found in the search.

Actually it is a disadvantage for an agent to not list square footage on a home.

“They have “pocket” listings maybe if they think that the sellers are not internet savvy and don’t know how to check the MLS list and confirm that theirs is actually MLS-counted.”

I am not sure how many mainstream brokerages you have worked for in San Diego… pocket listings are not as commonplace as you indicate. Pocket listings happen for a few reasons… Say someone is going to list but not for a few weeks. Or perhaps the listing agent knows a key buyer or knows a key buyers agent who will want a home that exactly matches that listing… the listing agent will let the seller know that and tell them they may want to wait a few days so that they can bring the buyer over before the home is placed on the MLS.

Again, I only try to post facts, not speculation. I am not trying to shill at all for the industry but sometimes it is frustrating to read posts that clearly are not factual.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I am not afraid of NAR however I would like to address some of the statements made…

“Take the MLS, for instance. They won’t show you the correct days-on-market stats anymore.”

Ummm… which MLS are you talking about Nancy. Sandicor has not changed a thing. I think you may be referring to the Socal MLS which is not Sandicor down here in San Diego. You can always find out how long a home has been on the market by calling the agent and asking.

Also how many days has any FSBO been on the market?

“They deliberately undercount the number of houses in the active for-sale list by dropping those without sq-ft measurements off the list.”

Ummm… once more, which MLS are you talking about Nancy? The Sandicor puts all homes on the MLS regardless of whether square footage is entered or not. An active listing is an active listing is an active listing. It is not hidden in any way. One thing that does happen though… if you do a search on square footage maybe search for a home bigger then x square feet, then the homes that do not have square footage will not be found in the search.

Actually it is a disadvantage for an agent to not list square footage on a home.

“They have “pocket” listings maybe if they think that the sellers are not internet savvy and don’t know how to check the MLS list and confirm that theirs is actually MLS-counted.”

I am not sure how many mainstream brokerages you have worked for in San Diego… pocket listings are not as commonplace as you indicate. Pocket listings happen for a few reasons… Say someone is going to list but not for a few weeks. Or perhaps the listing agent knows a key buyer or knows a key buyers agent who will want a home that exactly matches that listing… the listing agent will let the seller know that and tell them they may want to wait a few days so that they can bring the buyer over before the home is placed on the MLS.

Again, I only try to post facts, not speculation. I am not trying to shill at all for the industry but sometimes it is frustrating to read posts that clearly are not factual.

SD Realtor

[Coronita]

SD Realtor. Please don’t be frustrated. I’m monitoring your numbers regularly. Thanks for the updates. I only wish you would expand your data to the attached markets, but that’s ok.

BTW: looks like the one attached that I bookmarked went pending last week.

http://piggington.com/ouch_1_month_later_still_no_takers_on_this_cv_townhome

Any ideas on MLS #076022906 ? Looks like it went pending. Drat! Guess it was wishful thinking I’d be able to re-pick up that place for less than $500k.

[Coronita]

SD Realtor. Please don’t be frustrated. I’m monitoring your numbers regularly. Thanks for the updates. I only wish you would expand your data to the attached markets, but that’s ok.

BTW: looks like the one attached that I bookmarked went pending last week.

http://piggington.com/ouch_1_month_later_still_no_takers_on_this_cv_townhome

Any ideas on MLS #076022906 ? Looks like it went pending. Drat! Guess it was wishful thinking I’d be able to re-pick up that place for less than $500k.

[sdrealtor]

flu,
The frustration commnets were by SD R not me. I am the author of this thread and I dont get frustrated.

I check the attached market from time to time and the active pending trend seems to be similar. However and it is a big HOWEVER, most of the sales seem to be in Andalucia. When they sell out, the market will probably get a little better for the resales.

BTW, that property was a big time short sale so it will be a long time before we know what happened. My guess is at least 60 days.

[sdrealtor]

flu,
The frustration commnets were by SD R not me. I am the author of this thread and I dont get frustrated.

I check the attached market from time to time and the active pending trend seems to be similar. However and it is a big HOWEVER, most of the sales seem to be in Andalucia. When they sell out, the market will probably get a little better for the resales.

BTW, that property was a big time short sale so it will be a long time before we know what happened. My guess is at least 60 days.

[SD Realtor]

sdr –

Didn’t mean to hijack the thread… just trying to set the record straight on statements that I felt needed to be addressed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr –

Didn’t mean to hijack the thread… just trying to set the record straight on statements that I felt needed to be addressed.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

SD R,
Thank you and I meant to thank you in writing but got sidetracked.

Thanks again

sdr

[sdrealtor]

SD R,
Thank you and I meant to thank you in writing but got sidetracked.

Thanks again

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)

7/19 to 7/25

new listings – 12
back on market – 1

Total growth in inventory – 13

pendings – 11
expired – 4
withdrawn – 1
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 18

Net change in inventory – minus 5

Random thoughts

Inventory trending down. It has been quite a while since inventory actually increased during a week. MOst of the pendings this week were $1M+.

I was out showing property to client today in Encinitas/South Carlsbad. We looked at detahced homes up to the low 700’s and some of the nicer/larger attached homes in the area up to the low 600’s. Inventory is pretty thin around here. We looked at what I would consider the best 15 to 20 properties on the market. Forgetting prices, the houses were virtually unliveable with the exception of 2 or 3. Even if they lowered the prices 10% below recent comps they would have a tough time selling. The beauty contest winners have been chosen this Summer and we are left with alot of red headed step children. IMO these homes are unsellable or sellable only at prices that will put up some ugly new comps. Most had long time owners with tons of equity and I suspect at least half of them will end up on the rental market.

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