Carmel Valley Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)

6/28 to 7/4

new listings – 10
back on market – 4

Total growth in inventory – 14

pendings – 5
expired – 8
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 17

Net change in inventory – minus 3

Random thoughts

Inventory still trending down.

Pendings trending down (could be a Holiday effect)

15 homes closed and I noticed an interesting change. Most homes closed near the asking price or in the middle of the range (when ranges were used). This indicates that sellers might be getting more realistic in setting asking prices.

The attached market inventory was a net minus 15 this week.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)

7/5 to 7/11

new listings – 11
back on market – 2

Total growth in inventory – 13

pendings – 11
expired – 2
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 3

Total decrease in inventory – 19

Net change in inventory – minus 6

Random thoughts

Inventory still trending down.

From another thread we (Bugs, myself and SD R) were debating the market value of a home in the heart of CV. The heart of CV is the area surrounding Del Mar Heights Road and does not include Torrey Hills south of 56 or the newer homes to the east in Pacific Highlands Ranch and beyond. I ran a quick check for homes in its class -at least 2000 sq ft and 4BR’s under $1M (if a range was used I took the midpoint of the range). Here is what I found:

1 home for sale which is a 4br/2.5ba/3car/2500 sq ft rental property for 970K to 995K (there was 1 more priced at 999,500 to 1.05M which just missed). Thats all!

7 homes are in escrow of which 4 sold in 2 weeks or less.

In the last 30 days there have been 7 closed sales there. The average down payment was 157K. The smallest downpayment was 5% (50K) and there were 2 with 10% down (75K and 95K). The remaining 4 buyers put down between 175K and 310K.

I’m pretty comfortable with my price opinion.

The attached market inventory was a net minus 6 this week howevewr most of the activity is in Andalucia which seems to be selling about 10 homes per week.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)

7/5 to 7/11

new listings – 11
back on market – 2

Total growth in inventory – 13

pendings – 11
expired – 2
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 3

Total decrease in inventory – 19

Net change in inventory – minus 6

Random thoughts

Inventory still trending down.

From another thread we (Bugs, myself and SD R) were debating the market value of a home in the heart of CV. The heart of CV is the area surrounding Del Mar Heights Road and does not include Torrey Hills south of 56 or the newer homes to the east in Pacific Highlands Ranch and beyond. I ran a quick check for homes in its class -at least 2000 sq ft and 4BR’s under $1M (if a range was used I took the midpoint of the range). Here is what I found:

1 home for sale which is a 4br/2.5ba/3car/2500 sq ft rental property for 970K to 995K (there was 1 more priced at 999,500 to 1.05M which just missed). Thats all!

7 homes are in escrow of which 4 sold in 2 weeks or less.

In the last 30 days there have been 7 closed sales there. The average down payment was 157K. The smallest downpayment was 5% (50K) and there were 2 with 10% down (75K and 95K). The remaining 4 buyers put down between 175K and 310K.

I’m pretty comfortable with my price opinion.

The attached market inventory was a net minus 6 this week howevewr most of the activity is in Andalucia which seems to be selling about 10 homes per week.

[Arty]

So I have 150k to put down as down payment. However, if there is really a market downturn, that means all my down payment will be wipe out. I guess I am too chicken to buy these days.

[Arty]

So I have 150k to put down as down payment. However, if there is really a market downturn, that means all my down payment will be wipe out. I guess I am too chicken to buy these days.

[sdrealtor]

orry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)

7/12 to 7/18

new listings – 9
back on market – 1

Total growth in inventory – 10

pendings – 15
expired – 3
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 23

Net change in inventory – minus 13!!

Random thoughts

Inventory trending down. I started tracking actives in pendings about 1 year ago and have all the historical data on a weekly basis. The active listings are down over 50% while the pendings (In Escrow) are up 25%.

I believe the surge in pendings is from buyers running out of time with the start of the school year a month away. I also believe we are seeing homeowners digging in for the long haul as they are no longer willing to sell at current market prices. This should only increase and we will be come a market driven and dominated by distress sales.

[sdrealtor]

orry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)

7/12 to 7/18

new listings – 9
back on market – 1

Total growth in inventory – 10

pendings – 15
expired – 3
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 23

Net change in inventory – minus 13!!

Random thoughts

Inventory trending down. I started tracking actives in pendings about 1 year ago and have all the historical data on a weekly basis. The active listings are down over 50% while the pendings (In Escrow) are up 25%.

I believe the surge in pendings is from buyers running out of time with the start of the school year a month away. I also believe we are seeing homeowners digging in for the long haul as they are no longer willing to sell at current market prices. This should only increase and we will be come a market driven and dominated by distress sales.

[g2006]

sdrealtor a quick question do u track the final selling price compared to asking price.

This can give us a direction of future asking price

Thanks

[g2006]

sdrealtor a quick question do u track the final selling price compared to asking price.

This can give us a direction of future asking price

Thanks

[JJGittes]

With a market driven by distress sales on the one hand, and sellers digging in their heels on the other (especially in good established neighborhoods), how exactly does that scenario play out re: pricing? Especially in the decent coastal areas between CV and carlsbad? I can’t wrap my brain around that one…help?

[JJGittes]

With a market driven by distress sales on the one hand, and sellers digging in their heels on the other (especially in good established neighborhoods), how exactly does that scenario play out re: pricing? Especially in the decent coastal areas between CV and carlsbad? I can’t wrap my brain around that one…help?

[sdrealtor]

G,
I’m not sure exactly what your question is. If you could clarify more, I’ll do my best to answer. With that said, once the property reaches the right level it generally sells within 1 to 3% of asking price. Many properties start out way to high and it takes time to get them to where they should be.

JJ,
That’s a tough one and one I’ve been trying to get my brain around also. My current hypothesis is that it will keep very low sales inventory and hence very low sales volume. This will create some pent up demand and many frustrated buyers unable to find anything worth buying. This could help keep the distress prices up for quite some time. If you look in those better areas there are still very few properties with NOD’s filed. Today’s NOD’s are potential REO’s in 9 to 12 months. This tells me, we are still a long ways from widespread REO sales along the coast at least 18 to 24 months IMO.

It is defintely a bit of dilemma and one I havent figured out yet.

[sdrealtor]

G,
I’m not sure exactly what your question is. If you could clarify more, I’ll do my best to answer. With that said, once the property reaches the right level it generally sells within 1 to 3% of asking price. Many properties start out way to high and it takes time to get them to where they should be.

JJ,
That’s a tough one and one I’ve been trying to get my brain around also. My current hypothesis is that it will keep very low sales inventory and hence very low sales volume. This will create some pent up demand and many frustrated buyers unable to find anything worth buying. This could help keep the distress prices up for quite some time. If you look in those better areas there are still very few properties with NOD’s filed. Today’s NOD’s are potential REO’s in 9 to 12 months. This tells me, we are still a long ways from widespread REO sales along the coast at least 18 to 24 months IMO.

It is defintely a bit of dilemma and one I havent figured out yet.

[Anonymous]

For what it’s worth, CV is an upper-middle class professional area. Such areas tend to have more transient residents and greater turnover than average, due in large part to the nature of the jobs these people have. I have been watching the 92130 MLS for almost 10 years now. I don’t think it’s necessarily any sort of reliable gauge of the overall SD market, but once you’ve done it for a while it’s interesting by itself. SFR inventory was less than 20 (!) units at one point but climbed above 200 last year. Like SD as a whole, total inventory then declined although months of inventory stayed fairly constant (as sales declined). Now inventory appears to be building again.

[Anonymous]

For what it’s worth, CV is an upper-middle class professional area. Such areas tend to have more transient residents and greater turnover than average, due in large part to the nature of the jobs these people have. I have been watching the 92130 MLS for almost 10 years now. I don’t think it’s necessarily any sort of reliable gauge of the overall SD market, but once you’ve done it for a while it’s interesting by itself. SFR inventory was less than 20 (!) units at one point but climbed above 200 last year. Like SD as a whole, total inventory then declined although months of inventory stayed fairly constant (as sales declined). Now inventory appears to be building again.

[Author]

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