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Aecetia.
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May 25, 2007 at 8:44 AM #54985May 25, 2007 at 8:45 AM #54962
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI pick the peak and compare it to the most recent monthly median.
You play games. Neat, FSD.No games, just facts.
The following is based on year-over year zip code comparisons for the most recent month available.
92117 – Clairemont is down 9.4 % year over year
92110 – Bay Park/Morena/Old Town is Up 26%If I take the approach of ignoring noise, then I would have to come to the conclusion that these adjacent neighborhoods are diverging in price by about 35% …
OR I could interpret it as More noise the Data Quick monthly median data.
You decide.
May 25, 2007 at 8:45 AM #54977ParticipantI pick the peak and compare it to the most recent monthly median.
You play games. Neat, FSD.No games, just facts.
The following is based on year-over year zip code comparisons for the most recent month available.
92117 – Clairemont is down 9.4 % year over year
92110 – Bay Park/Morena/Old Town is Up 26%If I take the approach of ignoring noise, then I would have to come to the conclusion that these adjacent neighborhoods are diverging in price by about 35% …
OR I could interpret it as More noise the Data Quick monthly median data.
You decide.
May 25, 2007 at 8:51 AM #54974ParticipantYou say prices ‘hit bottom’ in December ’06. I say ‘local minima in noisy data.’
Exactly my point. Now you get it. My claim of 9% increase was bogus because the data are noisy. I was trying to point out the futility of ignoring noise.
Why do you say ‘samples’? It’s the universe of home sales for the month. There is no sampling involved whatsoever.
Glad you asked. The samples are the particular homes that sold that month, whether they are representative of the entire zip code or not matters. When you compare to those houses sold in the same zip code from another month you are comparing to an entirely different sample set.
Prices are dropping in La Jolla. Get used to it.
Absolutely. I agree 100%May 25, 2007 at 8:51 AM #54989ParticipantYou say prices ‘hit bottom’ in December ’06. I say ‘local minima in noisy data.’
Exactly my point. Now you get it. My claim of 9% increase was bogus because the data are noisy. I was trying to point out the futility of ignoring noise.
Why do you say ‘samples’? It’s the universe of home sales for the month. There is no sampling involved whatsoever.
Glad you asked. The samples are the particular homes that sold that month, whether they are representative of the entire zip code or not matters. When you compare to those houses sold in the same zip code from another month you are comparing to an entirely different sample set.
Prices are dropping in La Jolla. Get used to it.
Absolutely. I agree 100%May 31, 2007 at 1:06 PM #55746sdrealtor
ParticipantOne quick request before Update time. Please dont hijack this thread as it makes it difficult to follow the trend. There are plenty of other places to talk other markets/issues.
5/23 to 5/30
new listings – 18
back on market – 2 (both fell out of escrow)Total growth in inventory – 20
pendings – 13
expired – 1
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 18
Net change in inventory – plus 2
Random thoughts
7 new listings and 5 pendings in the sub 800 market which is quite alot for heart of CV. Last year there wasnt much under 900K except for the real small homes.2 sales over $3M.
May 31, 2007 at 1:06 PM #55765ParticipantOne quick request before Update time. Please dont hijack this thread as it makes it difficult to follow the trend. There are plenty of other places to talk other markets/issues.
5/23 to 5/30
new listings – 18
back on market – 2 (both fell out of escrow)Total growth in inventory – 20
pendings – 13
expired – 1
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 18
Net change in inventory – plus 2
Random thoughts
7 new listings and 5 pendings in the sub 800 market which is quite alot for heart of CV. Last year there wasnt much under 900K except for the real small homes.2 sales over $3M.
June 2, 2007 at 9:58 PM #56136cyphire
ParticipantIn perusing the MLS I noticed 8 new listings on Friday alone. Thats a lot.
gOne struck my fancy. Talk about denial – the listing is with Prudential and the house is up on value range from 1.6M to 1.8M… 1.8 MILLON!!!! Zillow has it pegged from 995-1.017M. It is 3,400 feet and…. get this…. wait for it….. It backs up to a main road (Carmel Mountain Road). Are people nuts???? It is jammed between 6 other houses, on a main road, etc. I would love to see what this one actually sells for.
June 2, 2007 at 9:58 PM #56155ParticipantIn perusing the MLS I noticed 8 new listings on Friday alone. Thats a lot.
gOne struck my fancy. Talk about denial – the listing is with Prudential and the house is up on value range from 1.6M to 1.8M… 1.8 MILLON!!!! Zillow has it pegged from 995-1.017M. It is 3,400 feet and…. get this…. wait for it….. It backs up to a main road (Carmel Mountain Road). Are people nuts???? It is jammed between 6 other houses, on a main road, etc. I would love to see what this one actually sells for.
June 7, 2007 at 11:55 AM #57476ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
5/31 to 6/6
new listings – 25
back on market – NONETotal growth in inventory – 25
pendings – 15
expired – 6
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 26
Net change in inventory – minus 1
Random thoughts
New listings increased sharply as expected for the season.Nothing fell out of escrow which is surprising.
9 new pendings above $1M.
3 new listings under 700k
4 tract home McMansions closed between $1.4M and 1.6M this week
50% of new listings between $1M and $1.5M (McMansions for everyone!!)
June 7, 2007 at 11:55 AM #57499ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
5/31 to 6/6
new listings – 25
back on market – NONETotal growth in inventory – 25
pendings – 15
expired – 6
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 26
Net change in inventory – minus 1
Random thoughts
New listings increased sharply as expected for the season.Nothing fell out of escrow which is surprising.
9 new pendings above $1M.
3 new listings under 700k
4 tract home McMansions closed between $1.4M and 1.6M this week
50% of new listings between $1M and $1.5M (McMansions for everyone!!)
June 13, 2007 at 11:19 PM #59197ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
5/31 to 6/6
new listings – 15
back on market – 3Total growth in inventory – 18
pendings – 16
expired – 4
withdrawn – 4
cancelled – 3Total decrease in inventory – 27
Net change in inventory – minus 9
Random thoughts
New listings back down.
One fell out of escrow while other 2 were temporarily withdrawn from the market. Small fall out rate probably due to high percentage of corporately supported RELO buyers.
Amazingly to me, CV is still going fairly strong. In my submarket (Encinitas/South Carlsbad) things got noticeably slower the last few weeks.
Off to a business conference for one of my other businesses. Flying all day and in meetings most of the next few days so I’m not sure how much time I’ll have for blogging. Have a great weekend all!
June 13, 2007 at 11:19 PM #59226ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
5/31 to 6/6
new listings – 15
back on market – 3Total growth in inventory – 18
pendings – 16
expired – 4
withdrawn – 4
cancelled – 3Total decrease in inventory – 27
Net change in inventory – minus 9
Random thoughts
New listings back down.
One fell out of escrow while other 2 were temporarily withdrawn from the market. Small fall out rate probably due to high percentage of corporately supported RELO buyers.
Amazingly to me, CV is still going fairly strong. In my submarket (Encinitas/South Carlsbad) things got noticeably slower the last few weeks.
Off to a business conference for one of my other businesses. Flying all day and in meetings most of the next few days so I’m not sure how much time I’ll have for blogging. Have a great weekend all!
June 14, 2007 at 6:55 AM #59217
CoronitaParticipantI’m actually surprised some how high some of the neighbor’s home sold for and closed. Around me, it does seem like all the new buyers have been mostly immigrants (Korean, Chinese, Middle-Eastern, Indian). My understanding is that these homes were bought with hefty downpayments. I guess with the dollar devaluing, things are relatively cheap for these folks.
Actually, I was curious so I ask why they moved in. Most cited the school district.
The attached(condo) market in CV on the other hand is a different story.
June 14, 2007 at 6:55 AM #59246CoronitaParticipantI’m actually surprised some how high some of the neighbor’s home sold for and closed. Around me, it does seem like all the new buyers have been mostly immigrants (Korean, Chinese, Middle-Eastern, Indian). My understanding is that these homes were bought with hefty downpayments. I guess with the dollar devaluing, things are relatively cheap for these folks.
Actually, I was curious so I ask why they moved in. Most cited the school district.
The attached(condo) market in CV on the other hand is a different story.
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