CA Shadow Inventory

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Here’s a new story from the field about a shadow inventory house. I have never heard one like this but when I hear one I gotta beleive there are others. It’s a true story and some posters will write it off as a realtor fabrication but its not. I do not have the exact details but what i have is close enough. I was floored and still am. I was actually out partying last nite with a regular Pigg poster who can cooberate it.

I bumped into an old client who tried but failed to sell his house a couple years ago because he couldnt get what he wanted/needed. He had an extended period of unemployment and refi’d into a neg am Option ARM just under 600K about a year before he tried to sell. He neg am’d up to around 700K and it recast. He couldnt afford the payments so he stopped paying. He approached the bank for a loan mod and went back and forth for about a year. He owed almost 700K plus another $50K in missed payments. He was willing and ready to walk if the bank foreclosed. Out of nowhere he got contacted by the bank with an offer. New loan for about $490K and a sub 5% 30 yr fixed rate. Thats a principle reduction of about $200K plus forgiving a years worth of interest payments.

Oops there goes another shadow inventory house, oops there goes another…….[/quote]

I’ve heard similar stories, and totally believe it’s being done, but with the stipulations others have mentioned about the “forgiven” balance (and fees and interest???) remaining until the sale or transfer of the house, at which time it will all come due.

Either way (total forgiveness or deferment), I hope they are prepared for defaults reaching 50% levels or higher. What kind of fool would be making full payments on his mortgage when all the idiots are getting this kind of gift from the taxpayers. I’m assuming the govt/taxpayers are propping up the bond side of these deals because we haven’t heard much lately about bond holders not receiving payment on their loans (or have I missed some news?).

[an]

CA renter, you’re giving J6pk way too much credit. If they think that logically, we wouldn’t have the bubble we had.

[an]

CA renter, you’re giving J6pk way too much credit. If they think that logically, we wouldn’t have the bubble we had.

[an]

CA renter, you’re giving J6pk way too much credit. If they think that logically, we wouldn’t have the bubble we had.

[an]

CA renter, you’re giving J6pk way too much credit. If they think that logically, we wouldn’t have the bubble we had.

[an]

CA renter, you’re giving J6pk way too much credit. If they think that logically, we wouldn’t have the bubble we had.

[analyst]

[quote=SD Realtor]

Analyst you wrote alot of what we already know and have posted.

[/quote]

Some of the “we” demonstrate they are following closely and understand. Others continue to demonstrate otherwise. My involvement in the current stream started with a specific response to a poster who seemed disbelieving that lenders would hold back from the market.

[quote=SD Realtor] Of course all bets are off, until the govt returns to fiscal discipline and no it is not an indefinite shell game. Come on though, do you honestly see our govt doing that on its own?

[/quote]

I don’t believe that I have predicted the degree to which the federal government will or will not adopt monetary and fiscal discipline. If it does, it will be due to pressure arising from outside the housing market.

The reason I read and participate here is to aid in my own decision-making. I have lived in San Diego for 40 years, have reached a plausible retirement age, and own San Diego property without debt.

To make the choice whether to hold or sell, I have to predict the market. To do that, I have to understand as much as possible what feeds both the supply and demand side. I think I have achieved the level of understanding that is possible.

My conclusion is that without the government intervention, the market would move enough lower that I should sell and come back later.

Since I have not yet sold, it is clear that I have not yet concluded that the government will be forced to back off significantly.

[analyst]

[quote=SD Realtor]

Analyst you wrote alot of what we already know and have posted.

[/quote]

Some of the “we” demonstrate they are following closely and understand. Others continue to demonstrate otherwise. My involvement in the current stream started with a specific response to a poster who seemed disbelieving that lenders would hold back from the market.

[quote=SD Realtor] Of course all bets are off, until the govt returns to fiscal discipline and no it is not an indefinite shell game. Come on though, do you honestly see our govt doing that on its own?

[/quote]

I don’t believe that I have predicted the degree to which the federal government will or will not adopt monetary and fiscal discipline. If it does, it will be due to pressure arising from outside the housing market.

The reason I read and participate here is to aid in my own decision-making. I have lived in San Diego for 40 years, have reached a plausible retirement age, and own San Diego property without debt.

To make the choice whether to hold or sell, I have to predict the market. To do that, I have to understand as much as possible what feeds both the supply and demand side. I think I have achieved the level of understanding that is possible.

My conclusion is that without the government intervention, the market would move enough lower that I should sell and come back later.

Since I have not yet sold, it is clear that I have not yet concluded that the government will be forced to back off significantly.

[analyst]

[quote=SD Realtor]

Analyst you wrote alot of what we already know and have posted.

[/quote]

Some of the “we” demonstrate they are following closely and understand. Others continue to demonstrate otherwise. My involvement in the current stream started with a specific response to a poster who seemed disbelieving that lenders would hold back from the market.

[quote=SD Realtor] Of course all bets are off, until the govt returns to fiscal discipline and no it is not an indefinite shell game. Come on though, do you honestly see our govt doing that on its own?

[/quote]

I don’t believe that I have predicted the degree to which the federal government will or will not adopt monetary and fiscal discipline. If it does, it will be due to pressure arising from outside the housing market.

The reason I read and participate here is to aid in my own decision-making. I have lived in San Diego for 40 years, have reached a plausible retirement age, and own San Diego property without debt.

To make the choice whether to hold or sell, I have to predict the market. To do that, I have to understand as much as possible what feeds both the supply and demand side. I think I have achieved the level of understanding that is possible.

My conclusion is that without the government intervention, the market would move enough lower that I should sell and come back later.

Since I have not yet sold, it is clear that I have not yet concluded that the government will be forced to back off significantly.

[analyst]

[quote=SD Realtor]

Analyst you wrote alot of what we already know and have posted.

[/quote]

Some of the “we” demonstrate they are following closely and understand. Others continue to demonstrate otherwise. My involvement in the current stream started with a specific response to a poster who seemed disbelieving that lenders would hold back from the market.

[quote=SD Realtor] Of course all bets are off, until the govt returns to fiscal discipline and no it is not an indefinite shell game. Come on though, do you honestly see our govt doing that on its own?

[/quote]

I don’t believe that I have predicted the degree to which the federal government will or will not adopt monetary and fiscal discipline. If it does, it will be due to pressure arising from outside the housing market.

The reason I read and participate here is to aid in my own decision-making. I have lived in San Diego for 40 years, have reached a plausible retirement age, and own San Diego property without debt.

To make the choice whether to hold or sell, I have to predict the market. To do that, I have to understand as much as possible what feeds both the supply and demand side. I think I have achieved the level of understanding that is possible.

My conclusion is that without the government intervention, the market would move enough lower that I should sell and come back later.

Since I have not yet sold, it is clear that I have not yet concluded that the government will be forced to back off significantly.

[analyst]

[quote=SD Realtor]

Analyst you wrote alot of what we already know and have posted.

[/quote]

Some of the “we” demonstrate they are following closely and understand. Others continue to demonstrate otherwise. My involvement in the current stream started with a specific response to a poster who seemed disbelieving that lenders would hold back from the market.

[quote=SD Realtor] Of course all bets are off, until the govt returns to fiscal discipline and no it is not an indefinite shell game. Come on though, do you honestly see our govt doing that on its own?

[/quote]

I don’t believe that I have predicted the degree to which the federal government will or will not adopt monetary and fiscal discipline. If it does, it will be due to pressure arising from outside the housing market.

The reason I read and participate here is to aid in my own decision-making. I have lived in San Diego for 40 years, have reached a plausible retirement age, and own San Diego property without debt.

To make the choice whether to hold or sell, I have to predict the market. To do that, I have to understand as much as possible what feeds both the supply and demand side. I think I have achieved the level of understanding that is possible.

My conclusion is that without the government intervention, the market would move enough lower that I should sell and come back later.

Since I have not yet sold, it is clear that I have not yet concluded that the government will be forced to back off significantly.

[SD Realtor]

Analyst I think alot of us would agree 100% with your assessment. Everything is quite surreal and in fact the more intervention there is, the harder it is to make an assessment of the current market, and the longer term outlook a few years down the road because one has to account for a greater period of unwinding.

It is tough and I am not sure what to believe anymore. My analysis now is very much confined to very very short term goals. I feel that the forces pushing down on the market are very strong. These are strong default numbers, heavy demographic problems and other natural forces. Similarly the forces that are reinflating are quite strong as well and should NEVER be underestimated as we have all seen.

Nonetheless I still believe it will be our creditors that will force our hands and then things will adjust more naturally, albeit in a higher interest rate environment.

[SD Realtor]

Analyst I think alot of us would agree 100% with your assessment. Everything is quite surreal and in fact the more intervention there is, the harder it is to make an assessment of the current market, and the longer term outlook a few years down the road because one has to account for a greater period of unwinding.

It is tough and I am not sure what to believe anymore. My analysis now is very much confined to very very short term goals. I feel that the forces pushing down on the market are very strong. These are strong default numbers, heavy demographic problems and other natural forces. Similarly the forces that are reinflating are quite strong as well and should NEVER be underestimated as we have all seen.

Nonetheless I still believe it will be our creditors that will force our hands and then things will adjust more naturally, albeit in a higher interest rate environment.

[SD Realtor]

Analyst I think alot of us would agree 100% with your assessment. Everything is quite surreal and in fact the more intervention there is, the harder it is to make an assessment of the current market, and the longer term outlook a few years down the road because one has to account for a greater period of unwinding.

It is tough and I am not sure what to believe anymore. My analysis now is very much confined to very very short term goals. I feel that the forces pushing down on the market are very strong. These are strong default numbers, heavy demographic problems and other natural forces. Similarly the forces that are reinflating are quite strong as well and should NEVER be underestimated as we have all seen.

Nonetheless I still believe it will be our creditors that will force our hands and then things will adjust more naturally, albeit in a higher interest rate environment.

[SD Realtor]

Analyst I think alot of us would agree 100% with your assessment. Everything is quite surreal and in fact the more intervention there is, the harder it is to make an assessment of the current market, and the longer term outlook a few years down the road because one has to account for a greater period of unwinding.

It is tough and I am not sure what to believe anymore. My analysis now is very much confined to very very short term goals. I feel that the forces pushing down on the market are very strong. These are strong default numbers, heavy demographic problems and other natural forces. Similarly the forces that are reinflating are quite strong as well and should NEVER be underestimated as we have all seen.

Nonetheless I still believe it will be our creditors that will force our hands and then things will adjust more naturally, albeit in a higher interest rate environment.

[Author]

Posts