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carlsbadworker.
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April 25, 2009 at 11:09 AM #387778April 25, 2009 at 11:17 AM #387095
Rt.66
Participant[quote=temeculaguy]
Just like carlsbadworker pointed out, inventory is very low. I’ve seen reports that it is under 6 months but I believe those numbers are too high. I ran 92592, 446 listings, of that only 199 are not short sales. Shorts are really hard to use for stats because they can be in escrow and they don’t change the status to “backup offer” because of the time it takes to get an answer from the bank and offers on shorts are not binding. In a nutshell, you can make an offer on a short and after the bank agrees, you can say no, so the agent tries to get as many offers as possible. There are usually a bunch of offers on each short by the time you look at them and they will show as active for the six months the bank is thinking about it.
[/quote]
Inventory is low? What are you smoking? Ever heard of shadow inventory? Have you looked at the tsunami of new pre-foreclosures and foreclosures about to make the huge shadow inventory seem tiny?
Home Depot and Lowes? You can fire off a cannon in those stores anytime of the day and not worry about hitting a customer or employee, jeez! New Mall? Sure there are people there, few buying, lots eating with money that should go to the bank for the mortage, but’s that’s so 2006. People at that Mall dress like they are in Wall Mart. Thats a change for TV and you know it!
——————–
Four T.V. house bears walk into BofA to bid on BofA owned REOs.
Mr. Banker says: Thanks for coming, today we are bidding on 2 fine REOs, one on Main St. and one on 3rd St. We’ll start at $200k for the Main St. property and $160k for the one on 3rd.
TV Bear #1: But I see 250 REOs on your list for the area we are interested in.
TV Bear #2: Why can’t we just make you an offer on any one of the 250 we prefer?
MR Banker: It does not work that way. There are only 2 available for sale. So there is an extreme, dire shortage of these affordable houses. “Inventory is very low”
TV Bear #3: Makes sense! Here’s my bid on the one on Main St. My realtor said I need to get ahead of the bidding if I expect to win one off these 50% of REOs so I’m gonna go with…. $220k
TV Bear #2: My realtor told me he was too busy to help me, I bid $225k!
TV Bear #1: I want to bid but I am worried because I see 250 REOs on that list right now and I read somewhere that there is a tidal wave of even more foreclosures coming soon.
Mr. Banker: The new mall is rocking, the dress code is the new hip “casual poor”, more restaurants are going in to replace the ones that went out of business in the mall over the past few years. Sure we recently added interpreters for the schools but that’s just for 1 or 2 kids. Those for lease signs and empty store fronts across TV are intentional, we are waiting for high quality tenants. TV has wonderful weather, It’s different here, Its different this time. Mortgage rates are low. You had better hurry and put an offer in on this house on Main St. because it seems everyone wants it!
TV Bear #1: Well PF Changs was busy last night so things can’t be too bad. That house on 3rd St. is a mess so….I’ll go $230k on Main St!
Chumps
April 25, 2009 at 11:17 AM #387364Participant[quote=temeculaguy]
Just like carlsbadworker pointed out, inventory is very low. I’ve seen reports that it is under 6 months but I believe those numbers are too high. I ran 92592, 446 listings, of that only 199 are not short sales. Shorts are really hard to use for stats because they can be in escrow and they don’t change the status to “backup offer” because of the time it takes to get an answer from the bank and offers on shorts are not binding. In a nutshell, you can make an offer on a short and after the bank agrees, you can say no, so the agent tries to get as many offers as possible. There are usually a bunch of offers on each short by the time you look at them and they will show as active for the six months the bank is thinking about it.
[/quote]
Inventory is low? What are you smoking? Ever heard of shadow inventory? Have you looked at the tsunami of new pre-foreclosures and foreclosures about to make the huge shadow inventory seem tiny?
Home Depot and Lowes? You can fire off a cannon in those stores anytime of the day and not worry about hitting a customer or employee, jeez! New Mall? Sure there are people there, few buying, lots eating with money that should go to the bank for the mortage, but’s that’s so 2006. People at that Mall dress like they are in Wall Mart. Thats a change for TV and you know it!
——————–
Four T.V. house bears walk into BofA to bid on BofA owned REOs.
Mr. Banker says: Thanks for coming, today we are bidding on 2 fine REOs, one on Main St. and one on 3rd St. We’ll start at $200k for the Main St. property and $160k for the one on 3rd.
TV Bear #1: But I see 250 REOs on your list for the area we are interested in.
TV Bear #2: Why can’t we just make you an offer on any one of the 250 we prefer?
MR Banker: It does not work that way. There are only 2 available for sale. So there is an extreme, dire shortage of these affordable houses. “Inventory is very low”
TV Bear #3: Makes sense! Here’s my bid on the one on Main St. My realtor said I need to get ahead of the bidding if I expect to win one off these 50% of REOs so I’m gonna go with…. $220k
TV Bear #2: My realtor told me he was too busy to help me, I bid $225k!
TV Bear #1: I want to bid but I am worried because I see 250 REOs on that list right now and I read somewhere that there is a tidal wave of even more foreclosures coming soon.
Mr. Banker: The new mall is rocking, the dress code is the new hip “casual poor”, more restaurants are going in to replace the ones that went out of business in the mall over the past few years. Sure we recently added interpreters for the schools but that’s just for 1 or 2 kids. Those for lease signs and empty store fronts across TV are intentional, we are waiting for high quality tenants. TV has wonderful weather, It’s different here, Its different this time. Mortgage rates are low. You had better hurry and put an offer in on this house on Main St. because it seems everyone wants it!
TV Bear #1: Well PF Changs was busy last night so things can’t be too bad. That house on 3rd St. is a mess so….I’ll go $230k on Main St!
Chumps
April 25, 2009 at 11:17 AM #387564Participant[quote=temeculaguy]
Just like carlsbadworker pointed out, inventory is very low. I’ve seen reports that it is under 6 months but I believe those numbers are too high. I ran 92592, 446 listings, of that only 199 are not short sales. Shorts are really hard to use for stats because they can be in escrow and they don’t change the status to “backup offer” because of the time it takes to get an answer from the bank and offers on shorts are not binding. In a nutshell, you can make an offer on a short and after the bank agrees, you can say no, so the agent tries to get as many offers as possible. There are usually a bunch of offers on each short by the time you look at them and they will show as active for the six months the bank is thinking about it.
[/quote]
Inventory is low? What are you smoking? Ever heard of shadow inventory? Have you looked at the tsunami of new pre-foreclosures and foreclosures about to make the huge shadow inventory seem tiny?
Home Depot and Lowes? You can fire off a cannon in those stores anytime of the day and not worry about hitting a customer or employee, jeez! New Mall? Sure there are people there, few buying, lots eating with money that should go to the bank for the mortage, but’s that’s so 2006. People at that Mall dress like they are in Wall Mart. Thats a change for TV and you know it!
——————–
Four T.V. house bears walk into BofA to bid on BofA owned REOs.
Mr. Banker says: Thanks for coming, today we are bidding on 2 fine REOs, one on Main St. and one on 3rd St. We’ll start at $200k for the Main St. property and $160k for the one on 3rd.
TV Bear #1: But I see 250 REOs on your list for the area we are interested in.
TV Bear #2: Why can’t we just make you an offer on any one of the 250 we prefer?
MR Banker: It does not work that way. There are only 2 available for sale. So there is an extreme, dire shortage of these affordable houses. “Inventory is very low”
TV Bear #3: Makes sense! Here’s my bid on the one on Main St. My realtor said I need to get ahead of the bidding if I expect to win one off these 50% of REOs so I’m gonna go with…. $220k
TV Bear #2: My realtor told me he was too busy to help me, I bid $225k!
TV Bear #1: I want to bid but I am worried because I see 250 REOs on that list right now and I read somewhere that there is a tidal wave of even more foreclosures coming soon.
Mr. Banker: The new mall is rocking, the dress code is the new hip “casual poor”, more restaurants are going in to replace the ones that went out of business in the mall over the past few years. Sure we recently added interpreters for the schools but that’s just for 1 or 2 kids. Those for lease signs and empty store fronts across TV are intentional, we are waiting for high quality tenants. TV has wonderful weather, It’s different here, Its different this time. Mortgage rates are low. You had better hurry and put an offer in on this house on Main St. because it seems everyone wants it!
TV Bear #1: Well PF Changs was busy last night so things can’t be too bad. That house on 3rd St. is a mess so….I’ll go $230k on Main St!
Chumps
April 25, 2009 at 11:17 AM #387616Participant[quote=temeculaguy]
Just like carlsbadworker pointed out, inventory is very low. I’ve seen reports that it is under 6 months but I believe those numbers are too high. I ran 92592, 446 listings, of that only 199 are not short sales. Shorts are really hard to use for stats because they can be in escrow and they don’t change the status to “backup offer” because of the time it takes to get an answer from the bank and offers on shorts are not binding. In a nutshell, you can make an offer on a short and after the bank agrees, you can say no, so the agent tries to get as many offers as possible. There are usually a bunch of offers on each short by the time you look at them and they will show as active for the six months the bank is thinking about it.
[/quote]
Inventory is low? What are you smoking? Ever heard of shadow inventory? Have you looked at the tsunami of new pre-foreclosures and foreclosures about to make the huge shadow inventory seem tiny?
Home Depot and Lowes? You can fire off a cannon in those stores anytime of the day and not worry about hitting a customer or employee, jeez! New Mall? Sure there are people there, few buying, lots eating with money that should go to the bank for the mortage, but’s that’s so 2006. People at that Mall dress like they are in Wall Mart. Thats a change for TV and you know it!
——————–
Four T.V. house bears walk into BofA to bid on BofA owned REOs.
Mr. Banker says: Thanks for coming, today we are bidding on 2 fine REOs, one on Main St. and one on 3rd St. We’ll start at $200k for the Main St. property and $160k for the one on 3rd.
TV Bear #1: But I see 250 REOs on your list for the area we are interested in.
TV Bear #2: Why can’t we just make you an offer on any one of the 250 we prefer?
MR Banker: It does not work that way. There are only 2 available for sale. So there is an extreme, dire shortage of these affordable houses. “Inventory is very low”
TV Bear #3: Makes sense! Here’s my bid on the one on Main St. My realtor said I need to get ahead of the bidding if I expect to win one off these 50% of REOs so I’m gonna go with…. $220k
TV Bear #2: My realtor told me he was too busy to help me, I bid $225k!
TV Bear #1: I want to bid but I am worried because I see 250 REOs on that list right now and I read somewhere that there is a tidal wave of even more foreclosures coming soon.
Mr. Banker: The new mall is rocking, the dress code is the new hip “casual poor”, more restaurants are going in to replace the ones that went out of business in the mall over the past few years. Sure we recently added interpreters for the schools but that’s just for 1 or 2 kids. Those for lease signs and empty store fronts across TV are intentional, we are waiting for high quality tenants. TV has wonderful weather, It’s different here, Its different this time. Mortgage rates are low. You had better hurry and put an offer in on this house on Main St. because it seems everyone wants it!
TV Bear #1: Well PF Changs was busy last night so things can’t be too bad. That house on 3rd St. is a mess so….I’ll go $230k on Main St!
Chumps
April 25, 2009 at 11:17 AM #387758Participant[quote=temeculaguy]
Just like carlsbadworker pointed out, inventory is very low. I’ve seen reports that it is under 6 months but I believe those numbers are too high. I ran 92592, 446 listings, of that only 199 are not short sales. Shorts are really hard to use for stats because they can be in escrow and they don’t change the status to “backup offer” because of the time it takes to get an answer from the bank and offers on shorts are not binding. In a nutshell, you can make an offer on a short and after the bank agrees, you can say no, so the agent tries to get as many offers as possible. There are usually a bunch of offers on each short by the time you look at them and they will show as active for the six months the bank is thinking about it.
[/quote]
Inventory is low? What are you smoking? Ever heard of shadow inventory? Have you looked at the tsunami of new pre-foreclosures and foreclosures about to make the huge shadow inventory seem tiny?
Home Depot and Lowes? You can fire off a cannon in those stores anytime of the day and not worry about hitting a customer or employee, jeez! New Mall? Sure there are people there, few buying, lots eating with money that should go to the bank for the mortage, but’s that’s so 2006. People at that Mall dress like they are in Wall Mart. Thats a change for TV and you know it!
——————–
Four T.V. house bears walk into BofA to bid on BofA owned REOs.
Mr. Banker says: Thanks for coming, today we are bidding on 2 fine REOs, one on Main St. and one on 3rd St. We’ll start at $200k for the Main St. property and $160k for the one on 3rd.
TV Bear #1: But I see 250 REOs on your list for the area we are interested in.
TV Bear #2: Why can’t we just make you an offer on any one of the 250 we prefer?
MR Banker: It does not work that way. There are only 2 available for sale. So there is an extreme, dire shortage of these affordable houses. “Inventory is very low”
TV Bear #3: Makes sense! Here’s my bid on the one on Main St. My realtor said I need to get ahead of the bidding if I expect to win one off these 50% of REOs so I’m gonna go with…. $220k
TV Bear #2: My realtor told me he was too busy to help me, I bid $225k!
TV Bear #1: I want to bid but I am worried because I see 250 REOs on that list right now and I read somewhere that there is a tidal wave of even more foreclosures coming soon.
Mr. Banker: The new mall is rocking, the dress code is the new hip “casual poor”, more restaurants are going in to replace the ones that went out of business in the mall over the past few years. Sure we recently added interpreters for the schools but that’s just for 1 or 2 kids. Those for lease signs and empty store fronts across TV are intentional, we are waiting for high quality tenants. TV has wonderful weather, It’s different here, Its different this time. Mortgage rates are low. You had better hurry and put an offer in on this house on Main St. because it seems everyone wants it!
TV Bear #1: Well PF Changs was busy last night so things can’t be too bad. That house on 3rd St. is a mess so….I’ll go $230k on Main St!
Chumps
April 25, 2009 at 11:18 AM #387119temeculaguy
ParticipantAnd the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?
April 25, 2009 at 11:18 AM #387389ParticipantAnd the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?
April 25, 2009 at 11:18 AM #387590ParticipantAnd the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?
April 25, 2009 at 11:18 AM #387641ParticipantAnd the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?
April 25, 2009 at 11:18 AM #387783ParticipantAnd the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?
April 25, 2009 at 1:45 PM #387154Participant[quote=temeculaguy]And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?[/quote]
I did not single you out as a chump, hence the “s” on the end (chumpS). So unless you are plural, you can relax. However, if “you” believed someone holding thousands of houses when they told you that only putting a few on the market cannot DRASTICALLY increase housing prices then maybe? If you also believed that the coming wave of new REOs will not have an adverse affect on prices then the shoe fits?
I’ve had two screen names, Scarlet before RT.66. There is another Scarlett (2 Ts) so I changed it, no conspiracy about it.
The 250 number was random of course, but also for a area, like a hood, a few streets not all of TV. We all know that 250 is absurdly low for all of TV.
The banks are manipulating supply, everyone “should” know this. There is a tsunami of new preforeclosures and foreclosures on RealtyTrac right now, today. Again anybody can search this. If you buy a house in TV today because you believed someone who said inventory is low, you are indeed a chump.
We don’t have to argue about who’s facts or figures are more accurate. Anyone on this board can go hereand see for themselves:
And don’t forget that the shadow inventory houses are in ADDITION to that ugly picture from the link.
The banks love folks like you. Banks spew total BS, hide 80k houses in CA alone, stall foreclosures and instead of everyone collectively calling BULLSHIT! on them some folks who have skin in the game or need a commision buy it hook-line-and-sinker and perpetuate the BS.
TVGuy, post a RealtyTrac search of your vaulted zip code so we can see how good its doing?
Piggs need a voice of reason to counter the ultra cheerleaders. Most folks who buy today in TV will lose TENS OF THOUSAND$ that may never come back.
Look around you. Look at the foreclosures over the entire country. Ask yourself how banks are going to deal with this. Look at jobs and businesses closing all over. We have seen nothing since GD1 even close to the magnitude of what is happening now and its just getting started. You might want to think about the money people who listen to you will lose.
April 25, 2009 at 1:45 PM #387422Participant[quote=temeculaguy]And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?[/quote]
I did not single you out as a chump, hence the “s” on the end (chumpS). So unless you are plural, you can relax. However, if “you” believed someone holding thousands of houses when they told you that only putting a few on the market cannot DRASTICALLY increase housing prices then maybe? If you also believed that the coming wave of new REOs will not have an adverse affect on prices then the shoe fits?
I’ve had two screen names, Scarlet before RT.66. There is another Scarlett (2 Ts) so I changed it, no conspiracy about it.
The 250 number was random of course, but also for a area, like a hood, a few streets not all of TV. We all know that 250 is absurdly low for all of TV.
The banks are manipulating supply, everyone “should” know this. There is a tsunami of new preforeclosures and foreclosures on RealtyTrac right now, today. Again anybody can search this. If you buy a house in TV today because you believed someone who said inventory is low, you are indeed a chump.
We don’t have to argue about who’s facts or figures are more accurate. Anyone on this board can go hereand see for themselves:
And don’t forget that the shadow inventory houses are in ADDITION to that ugly picture from the link.
The banks love folks like you. Banks spew total BS, hide 80k houses in CA alone, stall foreclosures and instead of everyone collectively calling BULLSHIT! on them some folks who have skin in the game or need a commision buy it hook-line-and-sinker and perpetuate the BS.
TVGuy, post a RealtyTrac search of your vaulted zip code so we can see how good its doing?
Piggs need a voice of reason to counter the ultra cheerleaders. Most folks who buy today in TV will lose TENS OF THOUSAND$ that may never come back.
Look around you. Look at the foreclosures over the entire country. Ask yourself how banks are going to deal with this. Look at jobs and businesses closing all over. We have seen nothing since GD1 even close to the magnitude of what is happening now and its just getting started. You might want to think about the money people who listen to you will lose.
April 25, 2009 at 1:45 PM #387624Participant[quote=temeculaguy]And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?[/quote]
I did not single you out as a chump, hence the “s” on the end (chumpS). So unless you are plural, you can relax. However, if “you” believed someone holding thousands of houses when they told you that only putting a few on the market cannot DRASTICALLY increase housing prices then maybe? If you also believed that the coming wave of new REOs will not have an adverse affect on prices then the shoe fits?
I’ve had two screen names, Scarlet before RT.66. There is another Scarlett (2 Ts) so I changed it, no conspiracy about it.
The 250 number was random of course, but also for a area, like a hood, a few streets not all of TV. We all know that 250 is absurdly low for all of TV.
The banks are manipulating supply, everyone “should” know this. There is a tsunami of new preforeclosures and foreclosures on RealtyTrac right now, today. Again anybody can search this. If you buy a house in TV today because you believed someone who said inventory is low, you are indeed a chump.
We don’t have to argue about who’s facts or figures are more accurate. Anyone on this board can go hereand see for themselves:
And don’t forget that the shadow inventory houses are in ADDITION to that ugly picture from the link.
The banks love folks like you. Banks spew total BS, hide 80k houses in CA alone, stall foreclosures and instead of everyone collectively calling BULLSHIT! on them some folks who have skin in the game or need a commision buy it hook-line-and-sinker and perpetuate the BS.
TVGuy, post a RealtyTrac search of your vaulted zip code so we can see how good its doing?
Piggs need a voice of reason to counter the ultra cheerleaders. Most folks who buy today in TV will lose TENS OF THOUSAND$ that may never come back.
Look around you. Look at the foreclosures over the entire country. Ask yourself how banks are going to deal with this. Look at jobs and businesses closing all over. We have seen nothing since GD1 even close to the magnitude of what is happening now and its just getting started. You might want to think about the money people who listen to you will lose.
April 25, 2009 at 1:45 PM #387676Participant[quote=temeculaguy]And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.
250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.
That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.
Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?[/quote]
I did not single you out as a chump, hence the “s” on the end (chumpS). So unless you are plural, you can relax. However, if “you” believed someone holding thousands of houses when they told you that only putting a few on the market cannot DRASTICALLY increase housing prices then maybe? If you also believed that the coming wave of new REOs will not have an adverse affect on prices then the shoe fits?
I’ve had two screen names, Scarlet before RT.66. There is another Scarlett (2 Ts) so I changed it, no conspiracy about it.
The 250 number was random of course, but also for a area, like a hood, a few streets not all of TV. We all know that 250 is absurdly low for all of TV.
The banks are manipulating supply, everyone “should” know this. There is a tsunami of new preforeclosures and foreclosures on RealtyTrac right now, today. Again anybody can search this. If you buy a house in TV today because you believed someone who said inventory is low, you are indeed a chump.
We don’t have to argue about who’s facts or figures are more accurate. Anyone on this board can go hereand see for themselves:
And don’t forget that the shadow inventory houses are in ADDITION to that ugly picture from the link.
The banks love folks like you. Banks spew total BS, hide 80k houses in CA alone, stall foreclosures and instead of everyone collectively calling BULLSHIT! on them some folks who have skin in the game or need a commision buy it hook-line-and-sinker and perpetuate the BS.
TVGuy, post a RealtyTrac search of your vaulted zip code so we can see how good its doing?
Piggs need a voice of reason to counter the ultra cheerleaders. Most folks who buy today in TV will lose TENS OF THOUSAND$ that may never come back.
Look around you. Look at the foreclosures over the entire country. Ask yourself how banks are going to deal with this. Look at jobs and businesses closing all over. We have seen nothing since GD1 even close to the magnitude of what is happening now and its just getting started. You might want to think about the money people who listen to you will lose.
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